Posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:15 PM PDT by smoothsailing
Edited on 09/30/2012 1:23:49 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But on election day, Romney will win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. Thirty-two years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
Thanks for the post. One of the best I have read. Bump up.
Our 16% edge in enthusiasm plus Catholic vote and Obama’s done for.
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither.
Compared to this:
I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business…that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way…that he’d overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen.
However, his analysis is SPOT ON!
I would trust a bookmakers prediction 100 times more so than any poll.
And they have this all figured out.
Got this in email from the Romney campaign yesterday...
Because of supporters like you, we’ve been able to build a record-breaking ground operation. With the help of nearly 73,000 volunteers, we’ve contacted 26 million voters and identified over 2 million swing voters.
That means we’ve made 6 times more phone calls and knocked on 16 times more doors than the entire 2008 campaign.
You’ve made it more than a campaign -- you’ve made it a nationwide movement.
Those are impressive numbers and they could easily double between now and Election Day. I'm not overconfident but I'm feeling very good about this compared to 2008.
I signed up yesterday and got all my info verified, but it is the weekend. My wire won’t go through until Monday. By the time I am able to make predictions, Romney will be back up. :(
intrade, has Mitt at 21.5
I agree. This analysis puts into words what my personal gut is telling me. And you are right, since any.....any criticism of Obama is instantly demonized, many people are keeping their intentions to themselves....and will speak, anonymously and loudly, on election day. It’s in the air...this fuming feeling of horror and disgust of Obama and the DAMAGE he has done to this country in such a short time. He has got to go....or the country may well be lost. I’m not at all pleased with Romney....but I loathe, detest and despise his opponent.
pattyjo
I have read that Romney has alreadt contacted as many voters as McCain did in 08 with a month left before voting. I think we are not seeing a ton of Romney ads because the money is being spent on phone banks.
Later
Ummm, no he's not.
I think I have an idea what we are seeing in the numbers. It's something he says in the article about the small business owners: in 08, it wasn't just that people didn't like McCain. They were so ready for a change from Bush/2006-2008 policies that they were willing to vote for Zero regardless of his background, policies, or ideas.
I think the same is now true, to a lesser degree, with Romney. It isn't that people like or don't like his policies or ideas. THEY DON'T CARE anymore than in 08. They want Zero out, not Romney in!
What tells me this is the case is the lack of Romney signs and stickers---still far more than Obama this time around---yet there is a high level of local activity in phone banks (setting records in our are and, as I have heard, in FL) and walkers. These aren't "pro-Romney" people but anti-Obama.
Even the job approval, I think, doesn't reflect this in polls. I wonder if you had, without mentioning Romney, a poll that said something like "Do you think Obama deserves another 4years," his "yes" numbers would be in the high 30s.
You need to be added to our OH absentee vote thread. The #s are very good.
Wayne Allyn Root was the Libertarian VP candidate, and he is a Las Vegas oddsmaker. At first, I thought that this article was written by Root.
We’re to the point in the election where any positive opinion is treated as gospel and any negative opinion is treated as foul lies. It’s been that way since I’ve been on FR.
The election is close. Absent a serious screwup by either candidate it will remain close. It all boils down to turnout. hussein is a failed president with an incredible political machine and support of the state media. willard is a reasonably competent non-conservative with a much improved political machine. Neither inspire much enthusiasm outside of their hardcore supporters.
I think the south to a state goes for willard and the north with the possible exception of NH goes for hussein. And the election ends up being decided in the midwest.
The states to watch on the east coast are VA, FL, and PA. If PA, FL and VA go for willard, it’s over for hussein. If PA, FL and VA go for hussein, it’s over for willard. If it salts out how I think it will, PA will go for hussein, VA and FL go for willard and it’s decided in the midwest.
I agree, I have been thinking the same thing, 0bama is not picking up any new votes from 2008, I only see him losing voters in a pretty big way. The only way he gains votes is fraud, and I won’t put out of consideration for the rates pulling it out illegally...
When I google him, I get links quoting him that he ran as a Libertarian for VP, but I didn’t find links that showed he actually did that. I’m agnostic on that until I learn more.
Otherwise, his reasoning appears sound. Either his reasoning wins on election day, or the polls showing this race as beginning to pull away for Obama are baloney. It can’t be both.
I'm thinkin' maybe it was....see Post #23
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