Posted on 09/28/2012 2:20:21 PM PDT by LS
In addition to the numbers posted this morning, a few later additions: Cuyahoga (heavily Dem Cleveland) county is STILL underperforming, coming in at 6% under 2008 levels.
Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.
Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).
Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: Rs only 1300 back in total votes, or 5% difference (in 08 they lost by almost three to one).
Hardin: GOP had a 1400-1100 lead in 08. It's already three to one Rs, and about one third of total GOP ballots are in. Dems down in total requests by 2500 (!)
Logan: no 2008 data (McCain won by 26.5) Rs up four to one.
Pickaway: Rs up almost two to one---lost by 1000 absentee votes in 08 but went overall for McCain by 21.5.
Washington: Rs up two to one, absentees in 08 were three to two (McCain won by 15.5).
Thanks man!
I think that a major reason for media screwing with the polls is to create a “horserace” between the two sides by picking up the underdog for a while before returning to reality.
This year, Romney has been impervious to Obama’s assaults but he got a phantom bounce from the DNC Convention. It seems to have quickly evaporated because of the Libya fiasco, so suddenly the media is pumping it up insanely with very skewed ratios of D/R/I.
Now, if Obama does very well in the debates, then he can be carried along a lot longer by the media. If Romney shows up well in the debates—if he just ties Obama by showing himself to be intelligent and able to hold his ground against the POTUS—then there will be the “comeback kid” effect and the polls will evaporate for Obama.
To a great extent the current inflated polls are wishful thinking by the media, because the Debates will seal the deal one way or the other. I am a bit nervous about these debates, since it’s the one thing that might save Obama, especially since the debate format and the questions will try to favor him. Certainly the media will proclaim an Obama victory either way, but unless BHO knocks Mitt out conclusively, I think that this race goes back to being a referendum on Obama’s dreadful record and that the American people will judge him and vote him a LOSER.
Not in OH. Usually, the Cleveland ballots come in early, and Cincy comes in late-—at least that’s my recollection of 04.
My extrapolation from the absentee drop off was that Cuyahoga would have a 68,000 D shortfall in registrations.
One small correction and I hope I didn’t accidentally mislead with terminology: these are absentee ballot REQUESTS, not returned ballots. The actual ballots are not mailed until 10/2. But the numbers don’t change. It’s hard to imagine someone requesting an absentee ballot and not sending it back in.
I think their goal all along has been to discredit a Romney win and challenge its legitimacy as they did with the Bush "selected not elected" crap. They are trying to undermine his presidency five months out.
Over 90% of requested ballots are returned.
I’m seeing the same stuff you are.
The good news is that these numbers are only ballots requested and/or returned so far.... by party affiliation. They don’t reflect who was voted for. They can’t tally those until election day. Too many are assuming a D ballot is voting Obama. There are lots of registered Dems who have no intention of voting for the master of disaster.
I know lots of “registered Democrats”; including me, who are actually conservatives. I don’t know a single self-proclaimed liberal who is a registered Republican. Registered Republican ballots can be counted on to go R....Registered Dem ballots.....not so much. I smell blowout...
Those of us who watched the recent Olympic long distance running races, saw how the winning runner would often lay back off the lead and then turn it on in the home stretch. Being in 3rd or 4th place at the 3/4 mark in the race was not unsettling to them because they knew their strategy and had confidence in their plan. They were not insecure and had to be in the lead the whole time.
Romney knows that the attention span of the typical American voter is less than the lifespan of a fruit fly and I believe is saving the best stuff for the final push.
“The DemocRAT modus operandi is to wait until the last minute to see how many fraudulent votes they need to win, then miraculously “find” them in some precinct captain’s trunk.”
The rats need a credible ground game to pull that off. It doesn’t exist. They’re all busy talking on obama phones, watching American Idol and stuffing their fat mitts in jumbo EBT potato chip bags.
Correction: they are ballots requested, by party registration, but they are not sent out until 10/2. All we are looking at are requests. I may not have made that as clear as I should. So if you see Rs with 1200 out of a total of 4000, it doesn’t mean that 1200 R ballots CAME BACK out of 3000 requested, it means that there were 1200 Rs vs, say, 800 Ds and 1000 Is.
What that means, I have no idea. I'll leave it up to someone else to interpret the data.
I don’t know the “why” but Democratic Party registration has plummeted across all the swing states and Ohio since 2008, and it corresponded with a huge rise in Independent party registration. Republicans picked up some, most went indie. Were they fleeing from the hard left swing of the Dem party? I don’t know. Here’s more:
“Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.
“I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in Ohio,” Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. “It’s not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.”
ACORN was very active (and highly corrupt) in Ohio in 2008.
Have they been around this year?
Here’s something else to consider. If you voted in the democratic primary in 08 between obama and clinton, you’re still considered a democrat for registration status. A huge amount of people voted in that democratic primary and have not requested ballots yet. Very interesting. So these unaffiliated voters my guess are a lot of republicans who didn’t vote in primaries in 08 or 12. Just a hunch.
“Too many are assuming a D ballot is voting Obama.”
I have made this comment on another thread a few days back. I have spoken with some old time Democrats that have said that this year, that check box next to Obama will be left blank this year.
They are seeing what this man child is doing to the Country they have fought for and do not agree with the direction he is taking it. Not the Democratic party they remember.
We have to assume that a Democrat-registered person who asks for a ballot will vote Dem. If they vote R or leave the president vote blank, all bets are off. If there are many of these, and there definitely could be, Obama is in big trouble.
Conversely, in 2008, Republicans asked for ballots and voted for Obama. I don’t think that’s happening much this year.
BTTT still get your neighbors convinced to vote Romney and VOTE VOTE VOTE!!
However, all my estimates of percents and so on have indies splitting evenly.
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