[TnGOP]

If you add the percentage of D+R ballots in 2008 and compare to 2012, you'll see that in most counties, the D+R= a lot lower percentage in 2012. That means that there is a much higher percentage of independents asking for ballots this election than last. I just spot-checked through about 15 counties. The independent numbers were much higher in all but 2 that I checked. In the 2 counties where independents were lower, it was by just a few points.

What that means, I have no idea. I'll leave it up to someone else to interpret the data.

[plushaye]

I don’t know the “why” but Democratic Party registration has plummeted across all the swing states and Ohio since 2008, and it corresponded with a huge rise in Independent party registration. Republicans picked up some, most went indie. Were they fleeing from the hard left swing of the Dem party? I don’t know. Here’s more:

“Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

“I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in Ohio,” Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. “It’s not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.”

[Ravi]

Here’s something else to consider. If you voted in the democratic primary in 08 between obama and clinton, you’re still considered a democrat for registration status. A huge amount of people voted in that democratic primary and have not requested ballots yet. Very interesting. So these unaffiliated voters my guess are a lot of republicans who didn’t vote in primaries in 08 or 12. Just a hunch.

[LS]

So, if they split 50/50, still no change. However, since almost all polls---even with their skewing---give Romney the edge in indies (one poll had him at 14, but I don't think it's that high, but I do think it's 2-5) then that's even BIGGER trouble for Obama because of the sheer numbers.

However, all my estimates of percents and so on have indies splitting evenly.