U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won (Dems can stay home)

Washington Examiner ^ | 09/27/2012 | Paul Bedard

[nhwingut]

They won't officially declare the election over, but the experts at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Thursday declared that President Obama's surge in key battleground state polls has pushed him well over the magic mark of 270 Electoral College votes, meaning his reelection is all but a lock.

"We are not calling the race," said the experts, but the polls currently show "a decisive Obama victory."

The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.

Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.

[sergeantdave]

“I have never seen anything like this.”

So you missed the 1984 poll that had Mondale leading Reagan by 30 points?

[Molly T.]

Yes, if that guy wins, it will mean the end of our America , as we have known her forever...AND we will also KNOW THERE HAS BEEN SHENANIGAN'S GOING ON....REMEMBER........we're dealing with Chicago
street smarts.....and I have no regard for the polls, but I have said from the beginning that if the guy in the white house gets his second term....we'll know we've lost a whole lot more than an election.....our way of life will forever be changed.....the American voters are asleep ....deaf and dumb....Beck is right.....we need to pray to OUR FATHER....every day, pray for our nation, and pray for HIS FORGIVENESS.....I pray we will all do this the sextet's....pray for our beloved country....our future generations deserve BETTER.....THINK ABOUT IT.

[ApplegateRanch]

I believe I recognize that mugshot; I’d swear she asked me out on a date once, long ago. Back then, the mustache was much less prominent. I moved six states away, and took out a restraining order. /s

[okie01]

It does not make any sense, historically or statistically. /i>

You have answered your own question.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Funny - I saw Sabato on TV just yesterday agreeing with Rasmussen that the race was still pretty much wide-open......