Posted on 09/27/2012 4:59:54 AM PDT by Evil Slayer
Certain media polls indicating Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney by as much as 10 to 12 points in swing states seem to spell disaster for Romney, but what they really say about the Obama campaign may just surprise you?
The absurdity of the skewed sample models in those polls is one thing, but what conservatives need to understand is that polls skewed to heavily favor Democrats logically point to one very important fact - Obama is in big trouble.
For one thing, Democrats and the liberal media are taking a huge chance by touting polls showing Obama up by double digits in crucial swing states as if these polls were totally valid. Obviously designed politically to depress and suppress Romney voters, these media driven and heavily reported polls can also backfire and suppress the Obama vote. Naturally, if you support Obama and are treated every day to wall-to-wall news headlines showing Obama so far ahead of Romney in the polls that the election is basically over, then you're less likely to go out of your way to vote in November. So there's a really fine line between turning out your voters and turning off your voters when using polling data like this. In this case, it is probably safe to say that internal Democrat polls show low enthusiasm and turnout expectations for Obama supporters across the electorate demographic, so the skewed poll strategy is worth the risk for the campaign.
This risky strategy also indicates that internal Democrat polling is probably more in line with Rasmussen and Dick Morris, showing that Obama is running even or maybe even losing ground to Romney in swing states. Conventional political wisdom makes this evident because a campaign wouldn't waste time and money in states where their candidate is up by 10 or
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I am in Colorado and there are lots of ads by both candidates. What I am not seeing are many bumper stickers, yard signs, etc. from either candidate. Seems kind of odd to me, past years they were everywhere.
Someone here said Obama was running ads in California.
I’ve seen a few on tv in Texas featuring Obama. I think they maybe in an effort to encourage the locals to support the democratic down ticket candidates although that isn’t stated in the ad.
Yup. I’m northern Virginia. Most of the Obama bumper stickers are leftovers from ‘08. I have seen TWO Romney stickers. But then, NOVA is now very, very liberal and chock full of federal employees.
Its not the polls that we should be worried about but voter fraud, dead people voting and intimidation at the polling places. Polls are done to create a news cycle and are spun whatever way they want the results to look best for their candidate. The only poll worth looking at is on election day.
This wasn't a question. Why is there a question mark at the end?
#30 good info. seems clear to me...
Obama is toast, and he knows it.
I'm sure causing the OWS types to riot is the least of their concerns. Polsters who would intentionally try to manipulate an election to get obummer re-elected aren't the type, I would think, that would care what collateral damage their actions caused.
baring massive vote fraud,
he’s wasting his time in PA also...
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since he knows he’ll lose,
and be going to his $35 million mansion,
perhaps he’s going to Ohio, Virginia,
and PA, just to help the Senate races there.
(he could go to MA and others, but in some,
he would actually hurt their candidate.)
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Trib Poll: Casey 46, Smith 41 (Pennsylvania Senate race tightens)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2936270/posts
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Ohio: Mandel Pulls Within One in Senate Race
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2936128/posts
FIFY
I’m reading an 18% edge for Rs in absentees so far, in NC.
Voter registration in NC is R-31% D-43% I-26%
So there’s obviously a difference in enthusiasm for these very early absentee voters, but I wouldn’t extrapolate too far from this since Republicans have always had more enthusiasm here for absentees, to my understanding.
I watched the absentees come in for 2010 and Dems generally dragged their feet but they eventually started to catch up by the end. That said, if Rs lead at all in absentees in the end, that can only mean we’re in very good shape here what with the big Dem registration advantage and considering the fact that this is a Presidential election. Dems will make up a ton of ground with one-stop voting.
No question Ds will pick up with “early” voting. I predict, nothing like 08. But you are aware that between 08 and now even in NC Ds have lost a lot of registered voters and Rs have gained a lot?
To spend time in these states makes sense. If either candidate wins both of them, they will very likely win. If they split, that would favor Obama. Romney would probably have to win both Iowa and Wisconsin in that case. Ohio should be quite a bit easier to win than Wisconsin, as Obama won Ohio by less than 5% and Wisconsin by over 10% in 2008.
The upper Midwest has been trending GOP for awhile, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Virginia become a blue state, and IA/WI/MN become Red, although it may take a couple of election cycles to get there.
The skewed polls are to suppress GOP fundraising.
Why donate to Romney-Ryan if they’re behind by 10 in Ohio?
OTOH if it’s really a 1 pt game. Who doesn’t have an extra $10 they could send in?
is there any pictures of the crowds at these rallies?
compare Romney crowds to Obama crowds.
I’m Ron Burgundy?
“I’m reading an 18% edge for Rs in absentees so far, in NC.
Voter registration in NC is R-31% D-43% I-26%”
NC was the state picked for the Democratic Convention and for all the millions they spent there, I believe it’s gone.
I had heard that the Dems have backed off advertising there. No wonder if they’re looking at these numbers - just like the absentees coming in for Ohio seem to be going in the opposite way to what they want to see!!
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