Posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:31 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men.
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
Hollywood is a very liberal working class area. Even the nice parts, few and far between, border not very nice areas. It has been like that for 50 years. Even the eastern areas by the Diplomat are pretty dumpy and very liberal.
In Palm Beach County, which is also liberal, enthusiasm for Ob is gone. Boca, West Palm, Delray, North Palm and much of eastern Broward. Obama will not get moderate Democrats or Indepndents this time.
I live just outside Pittsburgh. My area could go to Romney. But I doubt the rest of the state will.
Broward resident since 1972.
Approx. 66% Demrat here. And DWS, need I say more?
Broward and Dade are liberal sewers.
why would latinos go for bammey?....blacks and latinos don’t get along for the most part....
Last election was an outlier. We had a market crash, bank upheaval, Economic collapse, war, Bush fatigue and a full court press for O’Bumbler. Today he owns the economy, it sucks and he has shown that his philosophy is NOT working.
O,Bumbler is the one in trouble, his spastic reactions and wild swings and his poor leadership is all showing. He hasn't polled above fifty percent in a popularity poll in years and has spent most of hos presidency flirting with the low forties.
He and the Democrats are old tired and the new ID laws are already showing a decline in Democrat absentee ballots. In many states, like Ohio a copy of a picture ID and last four of SS# MUST accompany an application for absentee ballots and you MUST have ID to vote in person. The Dem applications ARE WAY DOWN in Crooked County and that is where the DEMS have cheated out OHIO for decades.
I am very confident that if Romney has a good showing gin the first debate, It is all over for the O’Bumbler!
For some reason the pollsters seem to think that even though Democrats have LOST a large amount of voter registrations, they will suddenly have all those people lining up to vote for the representative of the party they just made a conscious decision to leave. I don't think so.
Alan Colmes is an idiot. He wanted to walk off because Alan talks over his adversary and lies about them to their faces.
Colmes is a Moron, I hate it when his Fugly head appears on my TV set!
Let's dispel this Quinipiak & SeeBS poll BS right now, the Democrats ARE NOT going to match their ‘08 turn out, not by a long shot. They will be lucky to match their ‘04 showing when John Kerry was first elected to the Presidency.
OOOPS, Kerry was never president!
Even with the SB5 BS Kasich has risen in the polls to over fifty % approval and that is based on his ability to get things done. He was BELOW forty Percent last years and now looks like he will cruise to reelection against my buddy Public Official 14.
He also was on the eve of the election. What was he predicting in September, a Democrat blow out. That is usually the cycle for the Lib pollster. Predict a higher Dem turn out and declare the race unwinable for the Republican to attempt to destry their enthusiasm. Change around October 20 to a tighter race and then close to correct by Nov 1. Always stating a Democrat win none the less.
No. But Obama is going to lose by a landslide.
I am right here that same liberal cesspool and I have to say that the good ole bumper sticker poll is nothing like 2008. I see very few for either candidate. 2008 was O this and O that, O song booming out of speakers at every other stoplight. What we need to do in Broward is go to the BREC website and email them to volunteer as a poll watcher on election day at the very least and hopefully during early voting (oct 27). Every single illegal vote that is deterred is one less O vote.
People may accept gridlock when it comes. But the vast majority of the people you describe (those who don’t care enough to want any change at all) are also uninformed, and so they can’t possibly project out who they think will win each house of Congress when they vote for President.
Ha—I didn’t know he was a Koz kid!
IF Romney pushed conservative principles as much
as he CASHES checks, he could WIN.
Does he want to?
It is not clear.
Romney is essentially MIA, defined by the MSM and the DNC.
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