Posted on 09/26/2012 9:08:31 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men.
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama’s main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
Nineteen eighty was the first presidential election I voted in. It was a landslide. Romney is not going to win by a landslide.
These polls are simply campaign fundraising for their messiah.
Pray for America
For those who would rather not find out, it is particularly important to redouble our efforts for John McCain and to battle for each Senate seat. McCain is only seven points behind – not an insurmountable margin. A good final week could save the free enterprise system. We owe it to our future to try.
He had the 7 point right. The rest was cheerleading.
I am in Hollywood. And I base my expertise here on the fact that I lived here for several years.
where are you again Fl expert ????
Maybe Chicago ??????
I have a hard time believing you have relatives in Pennsylvania. They must live somewhere in the middle of the state. Otherwise they would feel the Obama influence.
And once again, I am in Hollywood, FL. Not Chicago.
Its the center of left wing hell in the state .
Nothing but Communists in Hollywood! And Clint Eastwood. And you, of course.
Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.
He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.
Morris did hit 2010 on the nose and had a very good sense of the voters’ intensities. I recall in 2008 that Morris was urging McCain to go hard on Obama’s background, especially the Reverend Wright stuff. I do not recall him predicting a McCain win.
He did say that if McCain went hard on vetting Obama on Wright, his Chicago connections with Rezko and his pathetic, brief state senate and US senate experience, he could still win. We all know how badly McCain ran his campaign and the catastrophic consequences.
Yes, tell me about it. Why do you think I left. (Only part of the reason,actually.) I don’t miss the political aspects of that. But it kills me about free republic. I haven’t been on here in a while, and every time you express an opinion that doesn’t tow the party line you get jumped on. I’m not saying I wish Obama would win. I hope he doesn’t. I hope Dick Morris is right. But I remember when Dick Morris guaranteed Hillary Clinton would become president in 2009. (That was in 2007). He’s been wrong before, and I think there’s a likelihood he’ll be wrong agin.
This election will be decided in the first 15 minutes, of the first debate.
Unfortunately, all the big media stories about how amazingly Obama did in the debate will be written by close of business tomorrow.
Correct. Fox had better sever all ties with him if Romney loses...Morris is going all out and all in on this one. The best night of Dick Morris on television was when Alan Colmes called him out on how much he is wrong and how many times he has been wrong and put out a long list and Morris was ready to walk off set.
I see the lack of support of people who in 08 would debate you on Obama
I am not seeing it in 2012
True but irrelevant. A fair number of elderly voters from four years ago are dead. Four new years of younger voters are eligible to vote. The voting age population has grown and shifted in demographics. Obama will lose a lot of his supporters. But he has to lose an awful lot before Romney wins. I think that will happen but it's an uphill struggle.
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