Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Pollsters: 8.2% D+ Advantage in Ohio (Pollster Corruption)
Breitbart ^ | 09/26/2012 | Dustin Hawkins

Posted on 09/26/2012 12:34:43 PM PDT by nhwingut

Ohio is easily the most important state for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as they head towards election day. It has clearly become the most frequently polled state, with polls showing either a dead even race or an Obama blowout win. Yet the details of the polls are far more interesting than what the simple results show, and nearly half of the polls show a turnout scenario favoring the Democrats that has never been seen before, while the rest mirror a rosy – and unlikely – 2008 turnout scenario.

The mainstream media is pointing to a number of polls and declaring that Obama has all but won Ohio. But, as has been the case all election in many state and national polls, the assumptions within those polls are highly unrealistic. That the media run with the incredibly unlikely numbers without true analysis is either journalistic laziness, or pure bias. Take a look at six recent Ohio polls and the oversampling of Democrats, and keep in mind that turnout favored Republicans by one in the most recent election (2010), while turnout favored Democrats by an average of just one point over the last eight years (Corresponding Obama lead is in parenthesis):

Gravis: Democratic Sample +10.3 (Obama +1)

ARG: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +1)

NBC/Marist: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +7)

Washington Post/ABC News: Democratic Sample +7 (Obama +8)

FOX News: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +7)

Ohio Newspaper Organization: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +5)

On average, these six polls have a sample that is 8.2 points greater than the Republican sample. The result is an average Obama lead of just over four points. Remember, the average Democratic voter advantage over the past four years has been roughly one point.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; oh2012; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last

1 posted on 09/26/2012 12:34:45 PM PDT by nhwingut
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

And this does not include today’s NYT/CBS poll which is 10% so the average is now 8.5. Ridiculous and scandalous.


2 posted on 09/26/2012 12:36:42 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

3 posted on 09/26/2012 12:37:24 PM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

We need to be realistic. R&R have changed their message and their tone as they swing through Ohio currently. One has to assume they see some slippage in their internal polling in OH.


4 posted on 09/26/2012 12:38:20 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
Nothing but Dem propagandists.

- - - -

Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew
NewsBusters ^ | 9-26-2012 | Matthew Sheffield

Posted on Wednesday, September 26, 2012 1:18:38 PM by smoothsailing

5 posted on 09/26/2012 12:39:29 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Do ANY of these pollsters remotely care about how bad it makes them look to be using such lousy reasoning for surveying 10% more of one party over the other?


6 posted on 09/26/2012 12:39:57 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Corruption gets worse by the hour. Fox just showed a compilation of Dem crap polls showing Obama up by 10 in Ohio — and the day’s not over yet.


7 posted on 09/26/2012 12:41:03 PM PDT by pabianice (washington, dc ..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BlueStateRightist

I think you are right. I think we have our head in the sand. Just because we want it to be so doesnt mean it is. Im voting Romney regardless of what he does, just hope others do too.


8 posted on 09/26/2012 12:41:51 PM PDT by GoCards (I am a Hobbit)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

“and keep in mind that turnout favored Republicans by one in the most recent election (2010), while turnout favored Democrats by an average of just one point over the last eight years” — Can somebody help me translate this?

Does it say, “Repubs had a 1% point turnout over Dems in 2010, AND averaged over the last 8 years, Dems have averaged a 1% point turnover advantage.”? I THINK that’s what it says.

As for the table: It says, I think, that the dems are being oversampled NOT by the 1% point that the last 8 years would justify, but they are being oversampled by 10, 10, 10, 6, 6, and 7 points?

Am I correct in that reading?

Thanks


9 posted on 09/26/2012 12:42:51 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BlueStateRightist

I think you are right. But I think a lot of it has to do with the bandwagon effect - where voters want to be on the winning team. And so after 3-4 weeks of “Obama is on a roll” meme, the low info voters are jumping on board.

I would argue that if the pollsters used normal samples, i.e. D+2-3, it’d be a dead heat.

Romney is winning Indies in Ohio, but losing bigger than McCain (who lost Indies by 6)? Does not jive, Statistically impossible - unless you skew data so in favor of Dems.


10 posted on 09/26/2012 12:43:05 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: pabianice

People have to use common sense(Unfortunately not many people use it these days) if Obama were up 10 in Ohio than why the hell is Obama campaigning there? Its absolutely ridiculous how low these so-called pollsters have stooped to help their messiah Obama..they think people are stupid..to think that if Obama is up 10 points in Ohio and would bother wasting one second in a state where he is up THAT much..COME ON..I think its obvious that he is NOT up 10 in Ohio..just like he’s not up 12 in Wisconsin, another state he campaigns in


11 posted on 09/26/2012 12:44:41 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Doctor 2Brains

That’s what you are reading. Averaging the last 8 years, it has been a D+1 turnout - going back to 2000 election.


12 posted on 09/26/2012 12:44:58 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
Romney should authorize an Ohio poll that oversamples R's by +12. The media would go nuts but would rightly point out that such gross oversampling makes the poll worthless.

Point made.

13 posted on 09/26/2012 12:45:49 PM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: VanDeKoik

No because they will do the same thing they have done every election season since 1980

They will push these pro Democrat polls all the way up to the the day before the election. Then they will do proper polling counting on people only remembering the last poll, not all the garbage polling they used prior to election day.

These polls are designed to do ONE thing, help elect Democrats.


14 posted on 09/26/2012 12:47:49 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: VanDeKoik

No they do not care. As long as they are paid by liberal media to give the poll results that the liberal media wants then they do not give a damn about their reputation. They are in this business to make money and they know that the liberal media will always give them business...


16 posted on 09/26/2012 12:51:50 PM PDT by Conservative12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: JPG
Romney should authorize an Ohio poll that oversamples R's by +12. The media would go nuts but would rightly point out that such gross oversampling makes the poll worthless.

Point made.

Novel, but intriguing idea

;)

17 posted on 09/26/2012 12:52:01 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: JPG

Romney should authorize an Ohio poll that oversamples R’s by +12. The media would go nuts but would rightly point out that such gross oversampling makes the poll worthless....

I agree with you. He should do this, wait for the reaction, then go on TV and point out how this poll and others that favor oversampled Dems are wrong and how the media is fooling the people. Run against the media.


18 posted on 09/26/2012 12:54:40 PM PDT by Hang'emAll (Ride to the sound of the guns!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: JPG

Brilliant!


19 posted on 09/26/2012 12:57:31 PM PDT by Thickman (Obama - President Ubiquitous (a.k.a. P.U.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Yeah, I read a the entire thing and another one, too. Amazing. Oversampling Ds by a number larger than the all time record D turnout. Not very likely, I think.


20 posted on 09/26/2012 12:58:08 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-34 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson