Posted on 09/26/2012 12:34:43 PM PDT by nhwingut
Ohio is easily the most important state for both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as they head towards election day. It has clearly become the most frequently polled state, with polls showing either a dead even race or an Obama blowout win. Yet the details of the polls are far more interesting than what the simple results show, and nearly half of the polls show a turnout scenario favoring the Democrats that has never been seen before, while the rest mirror a rosy – and unlikely – 2008 turnout scenario.
The mainstream media is pointing to a number of polls and declaring that Obama has all but won Ohio. But, as has been the case all election in many state and national polls, the assumptions within those polls are highly unrealistic. That the media run with the incredibly unlikely numbers without true analysis is either journalistic laziness, or pure bias. Take a look at six recent Ohio polls and the oversampling of Democrats, and keep in mind that turnout favored Republicans by one in the most recent election (2010), while turnout favored Democrats by an average of just one point over the last eight years (Corresponding Obama lead is in parenthesis):
Gravis: Democratic Sample +10.3 (Obama +1)
ARG: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +1)
NBC/Marist: Democratic Sample +10 (Obama +7)
Washington Post/ABC News: Democratic Sample +7 (Obama +8)
FOX News: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +7)
Ohio Newspaper Organization: Democratic Sample +6 (Obama +5)
On average, these six polls have a sample that is 8.2 points greater than the Republican sample. The result is an average Obama lead of just over four points. Remember, the average Democratic voter advantage over the past four years has been roughly one point.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
now I am wondering about absentee ballot fraud.
Huge difference between 2/3% and 7/8%. Thats the skew.
Too bad it’s not a federal crime to intentionally misstate polling data criteria. There would be a lot of pollsters behind bars right now.
I don't even think it occurs to them. They're following orders.
“Ann Compton was pushing the narrative that Romney is way behind in battleground states and she used these polls”
I want to puke everytime I hear “Ann Compton ABC News”. She is a useless political hack posing as a news reporter. Gag, gag, gag,
Few Americans will recall the events on the 2007 Kenyan Presidential elections. Barack Obama went there and campaigned for Raila Odinga, a man some claim is Obama’s cousin. Odingo was beaten, but claimed election fraud. He staged widespread riots in which 1000 were murdered. Rather than executing him for conspiracy to commit mass murder Odinga was appeased by being made Prime Minister (an office that didn’t exist) and functionally co-ruler of Kenya. Obama certainly recalls this and may be preparing something similar as his “plan B” with these misleading, bogus polls.
How have R&R changed their message and tone?
How have R&R changed their message and tone?
Does it matter? Ohio is full of morons...how do I know? They still live in Ohio.
I knew Romney would run an awful general campaign, just like McCain.
Please folks, in 2016 can we get behind ONE true conservative candidate and quit splitting the vote so much in the primaries we end up with a McRomney?
Not sure why heads are in the sand. Pollsters present ridiculously skewed polls and after much research the facts/crosstabs of the polls are presented and pointed out. Heads seem to be very much in the air.
brilliant.
wish you were running the campaign.....
She's on the top of the hour radio news cheerleading for Obama all day long and all week long.
Do you know what groups have called it the best in recent years? I’m not sure who has done well but on aggregate polls were pretty on target last time and that makes these numbers bother me. The polling firms may have some biasses but their primary motivation is to make money and if they miss by too much they’ll put themselves out of bussiness.
In 2008 Obama won Ohio by around 4.5%, almost e points less that he won the national vote. For him to win Ohio by 10%, he’d have to be ahead nationally by at least that amount.
Conversely, if the race is close nationally, it’s close in Ohio. There should be a slight edge for the GOP if it’s even nationally, although in 2004 Kerry did well there, considering the national vote was +2.5% for Bush. But even then, all he did was lose Ohio by the same amount, he didn’t do better.
If Romney wins the national vote, it’s unlikely he’ll lose Ohio or the election.
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