How Mitt Romney is actually defeating Barack Obama in the presidential race

examiner.com ^ | 9/24/12 | Dean Chambers

[Theodore R.]

Do you think it could be fear of past racism in the Mormon church that has Romney terrified? Candidates know that it is white supporters of civil rights legislation that are they key, and they fear any hint of “racism.”.

[yorkiemom]

Those of us who have been relatively successful in life through the fruits of our own labor and initiative. Misery loves company. Envy and jealousy are powerful forces. Liberals display them constantly.

It must be more important to them to try to influence how people vote than to be unbiased journalists. They think they can get away with lying and still keep their jobs. (Sadly, nothing has proven them wrong so far).

and you would think they would be embarrassed by how wrong their polls are. Gallup had Carter winning at this point. They have no credibility, yet are still getting paid.

[Alter Kaker]

Dean Chambers, an Internet journalist and commentator, launched his writing career by creating an alternative conservative student newspaper while in college. Dean grew up in what James A. Baker called "the Peoples Republic of Massachusetts" and has experienced first-hand the fruits of progressive public policy. Look to Dean's writings to find a uniquely individualist point of view focusing on limited government, individual liberty, and conservative values.Here's what I don't see: any background in polling, statistics, demography or mathematics. Sorry, but I'm skeptical of blogger self-proclaimed experts.

[Doctor 2Brains]

for later

[Conscience of a Conservative]

“There is nothing more conservative than reforming Medicare & Social Security so it will be around for the young folks. “

How ‘bout eliminating them?

[yorkiemom]

You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?

I have noticed this in California as well. I've seen ads not only on TV but have heard them on the radio stations as well. Should be a waste of money to even bother.

Could be he fears a landslide and doesn't want it to be any more embarrassing than it has to be.

[yorkiemom]

I'm picking a nit, but ending them would be more conservative. Neither are constitutional, and forced participation in a government program isn't conservative. But, your overall point is well made.

Thank you. Those are socialist programs, especially Socialized Security. The high income earners pay in substantially more percentagewise and will now never get that back. The lower income earners will get all their money back and quite a bit more.

[Alter Kaker]

Two possibilities: some ads are national - there may be ads that Obama / Romney are airing nationally. Additionally parts of Pennsylvania are in New York State media markets (Erie gets Buffalo stations for example). I imagine both campaigns have ads up in Boston - not because the people’s republic of Cambridge is going red this year but because you get Boston stations in New Hampshire.

[yorkiemom]

Do you think it could be fear of past racism in the Mormon church that has Romney terrified? Candidates know that it is white supporters of civil rights legislation that are they key, and they fear any hint of “racism.”.

There has been no racism in the Mormon church. And Romney is hardly "terrified".

[yorkiemom]

Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this? It seems to me it would make their polls routinely inaccurate, and make them look like dummies when their predictions don’t pan out. Thoughts?

I will try this again , LOL! Cut and pasted the wrong quote last time.

It must be more important to them to try to influence how people vote than to be unbiased journalists. They think they can get away with lying and still keep their jobs. (Sadly, nothing has proven them wrong so far).

and you would think they would be embarrassed by how wrong their polls are. Gallup had Carter winning at this point. They have no credibility, yet are still getting paid.

[yorkiemom]

Two possibilities: some ads are national - there may be ads that Obama / Romney are airing nationally.

I thought of that and it would apply to the network cable ads on TV, but not the local radio stations. I am in the center of California, that he would have to be targeting only this Valley with those ads.

[Alter Kaker]

I thought of that and it would apply to the network cable ads on TV, but not the local radio stations. I am in the center of California, that he would have to be targeting only this Valley with those ads.

I don't know -- to what extent are there national radio ads? I know Rush Limbaugh has them, not sure about on other shows/networks (I'm guessing Obama isn't advertising on Limbaugh).

If Romney had a chance in California, wouldn't it make sense for his campaign to say so? It would cause a surge of volunteers, donations, etc. Instead, they've focused on all the usual suspects.

[Grampa Dave]

Here in Wino country/Californicator land, we subscribe to Infinity/Comcast tv which has the ability to use ads directed to our zipcodes for car dealers, contractors, local restaurants. There have been a ton of Obozo ads an anti Romney ads this past month.

Due to white guilt, Obozo carried our zip codes with a wide margin in 2008.

Why would the rats waste any TV ads in California unless Obozo is in trouble?

“You know Obama is shaking in his boots when he runs election ads in New York State! Anyone else notice the plethora of Obama political ads? NY is supposedly a Blue State ... and in his column. Why advertise?

I have noticed this in California as well. I’ve seen ads not only on TV but have heard them on the radio stations as well. Should be a waste of money to even bother.

Could be he fears a landslide and doesn’t want it to be any more embarrassing than it has to be.”

[cmsgop]

And I’m seeing Ad’s in Seattle, now thats weird............,in 2008 the rats were off the hook enthusiastic about Obama around here. Now you are really hard presses to find a bumper sticker for Obama.

[Cheerio]

Is anyone paying attention to Intrade 2012 Pres Election these days?

Obama $7.24, 72.9%

Mittens $2.72, 27.2%

These are supposed folk who put their money where their mouths are.

[Grampa Dave]

“We need more knowledge of what difference the shift to cell phones has made in electoral polling data.”

We have the same question.

We have several younger relatives who are conservative independents or conservative Republicans, who only have cell phones since they got out of college or started working for a living. Basically none of their friends have land line phones.

My wife has seen an interesting shift with widows and divorcees, who are over 60. They have low cost cellphones and a slow speed/cheap DSL if they use the internet. They don’t bundle any phones/computer connections with their basic tv service due to the cost of bundling.

We both know retired couples, who travel a lot, who have gone to the I phones for their phone needs. They cancelled their land line phones shortly after buying an I phone or and Android.

So how are these people taken in for polling accuracy.

[Grampa Dave]

Again, why would the DNC waste money advertising the Obozo in Seattle or in the SF Gay/er Bay area?

[entropy12]

“How ‘bout eliminating them?”

Good luck with that. Can you name me 2 politicians in statewide offices who got elected with that agenda in last 50 years?

Reality is reality....ignore it at your own peril. Losers in elections can not effect ANY change. Just ask Joe Miller,
Doug Hoffman, Sharron Angle, Christine O’Donell, Ken Buck,
JD Hayworth etc. what laws they have been able to change.

[socialism_stinX]

There’s no question that Romney is leading in national polls that accurately forecast the relative turnout of Republicans, Democrats, and independents. Obama’s support among white voters has declined dramatically in the last three years.

[dennisw]

Thank you for posting this! Very interesting about how the polls are skewed by over- and under-sampling. I just wonder, why would they routinely do this?

Very simple. Say a pollster want to do a nationwide overnight presidential poll with a sample of 1000. They phone up enough people to get 1000 responses. After this they tabulate the results and find out how many claimed to be Democrat, Republican, Independent and how many are voting Obama or Romney. If the results show an over sampling of Democrats (very common these days) they do not try and balance the poll by phoning up more Republicans. They issue the poll results as is

BTW Rasmussen says that nationwide there are more people identifying as Republicans than Democrats

 

Saturday, September 01, 2012

After falling for two straight months, the number of Americans who consider themselves Republicans jumped nearly three points in August.

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July  and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002. The previous peak for the GOP was 37.3% in September 2004. See History of Party Trends.