Posted on 09/22/2012 10:19:14 AM PDT by abb
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
Wisconsin Recall Rasmussen Walker 50, Barrett 45
Actual Walker 53.1 Barrett 46.3
I haven’t seen anyone compare the swing state results in the 2010 elections, to the current polls. Nationwide the Republicans swept many state legislatures and governorships, is that massive conservative turnout wave going to be different in 2012? I don’t think so.
Anecdotally, I work do bridge maintenance in Oregon. In 2008 Obama stickers and yard signs were EVERYWHERE. Yesterday while flagging on a busy road, I saw 2. A Toyota Prius (A PRIUS!) drove by with a RR sticker! I think without a Saddam Hussein style rigged election (which is possible) Obama is completely toast.
Don’t worry about all the people who will suffer because of your incompetent fantastical ego.
Aloha,you do not deserve to live in Hawaii punk ass.
If he cares about them he’ll invite him to his new $35 million mansion on Oahu...more likely they’ll be discarded like everyone else in his life.
Posted this in the other Ras thread so will post here:
Rasmussen and Gallup do survey’s of party affiliation, The last Ras party affiliation done in Aug had +4.3%R, Gallup Sept # (after the rat convention) is R +1.23.
Ras’s history is here:
The polls mostly reflect the 2008 Turn Out model, which is why they sample +6-10% D, Ras’s numbers fro 2008 were +7.6D highest he ever measured.
Does anyone believe the rat voters are more enthusiastic than 2008? That is what all the major polls are assuming.
Even Rasmussen and Gallup are using a +2-3% D turnout model.
This guy has a terrific website where he ‘rebalances’ the polls to reflect the party affiliation numbers. The results are remarkable.
Of the 7 ‘major’ polls this past week the rebalanced polls show Romney anywhere from 50.06-50.37%, and Obama anywhere from 45.92-46.13%. This is a remarkably tight spread.
The average of these polls is Romney 50.33%, Obama 46.23, with 3.44% undecided. let’s say Romney get ~60% of the undecideds you end up with Romney 52.4 and Obama 47.6 a 4 pt Romney win. This comes pretty close to the economic model prediction from the Univ of Colorado.
They Project Romney 52.9, Obama 47.1
What this tells us is that:
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE AMONG ALL THESE POLLS IS THE TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMED BY THE POLLSTER!!!!!!!!
http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
Please understand the game here folks. Knowledge is power. The media polls are IMO a misinformation campaign to discourage conservatives.
Romney doesn’t have to blow away Obama in the debate. He just needs to not disqualify himself as an acceptable alternative to the failed Bozo.
This election is all about Obama’s failed presidency.
Note these analysis don’t factor in the 1% that will go to third party candidates.
Romney really strikes me as a “plan” guy and not a reactive or play it by ear guy. Didn’t he run similarly in the primaries? ie. wait, watch, fire? He may be unnerving the other side. Ever have encounters with someone really calm or passive? It can make you feel crazy.
Yesterday on Judge Judy, one couple (non-AAA) were fighting over foreclosure funds they had received from Obama, they were referring it as Obama rescue fund.
People like them will vote for Obama.
I am worried.
The new plan is to let only that part of the truth out that shows them at least tied. This is done now to instill fear in his leech constituents he actually could lose. An excuse to beg for more 'small money' contributions, an excuse to scare Obama-disappointed issue voters to man the ramparts again, and an excuse to still try and make think conservatives their man doesn't have a chance.
My nightly prayers to God ask that he end this tyranny of nontruth and give the faithful reason to remain faithful to correct the murders of unborn souls, stop taking the labors of the faithful, and give US hope for a change.
Or the undecideds will stay home, if they don’t like either candidate.
If PA is the 'lock' that all the enemedia are trying to convince everyone it is,
WHY have I seen three traitØr ads in just the past hour since turning on the tube ?
And they weren't on the expected alphabet liars, but relatively mid-market ESPN2 and BigTen networks !
Smells like maggØt fear !
PSALM 37
12 The wicked plot against the righteous
and gnash their teeth at them;
13 but the Lord laughs at the wicked,
for he knows their day is coming.
14 The wicked draw the sword
and bend the bow to bring down the poor and needy,
to slay those whose ways are upright.
15 But their swords will pierce their own hearts,
and their bows will be broken.
16 Better the little that the righteous have
than the wealth of many wicked;
17 for the power of the wicked will be broken,
but the LORD upholds the righteous.
Hear our prayer, O Lord
Hear our prayer, O Lord
Incline thine ear to us
And grant us thy peace. Amen
Good news, as I believe before Obama was ahead.
Now, we have the issue of the leaners, which right are are tilted slightly in Obama’s favor, but not as much as yesterday, which is great.
Appears Romney has perhaps escaped this last two-week barrage of unprecedented attacks okay.
“Appears Romney has perhaps escaped this last two-week barrage of unprecedented attacks okay.”
Oh, I’m sure they (the media) will create another “gaffe” to dog him next week.
I think the debates are going to be the true turning point.
Hi Hugin,
I was looking at the Rasmussen site and I thought that he accounted for the 2008 methodology vs the 2012 methodology (and showed the polls both ways). If I remember correctly, it still showed them tied or Barry slightly ahead (still not a good sign for an incumbent at this stage).
I was also thinking - they should be looking at the 2010 methodology - I think that election sent a clear picture of America’s dioscontent with the POTUS.
that was really the final rasmussen number in WI? That surprises me.
The RCP average was better...I think.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.