Posted on 09/22/2012 6:00:35 AM PDT by markomalley
The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we’ll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.
An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such “rainmaking,” or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.
But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.
Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% “Other.” As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has “52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.”
Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents. Independents are favoring Romney, not “leaning Democrat,” so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.
Many more strongly disapprove of the president’s job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this election’s most important issue, and the president’s lead on foreign policy is shriveling.
If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream media’s reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.
Glad to say I did not watch a minute of the DNC convention nor any lowlight videos...
I appreciate the post. I do see a downside to the rigged polls though. It can depress the vote, if folks think it’s a lost cause.
Even on FoxNews I see folks talk about how much Romney was hurt this week. The polls if anything show him breaking even. If it was a bad week for him, imagine how bad a week Obama had, still dead even, even in these rigged polls.
When Romney stomps his ass by 15 to 20 points, we should turn around and march on the DNCp outlets. We’ve had enough and they damn well better get the message.
Did you somehow miss the mid-term elections of 2010 when the Democrats suffered massive defeats because the Republican turnout was larger than the Democrat turnout?
The Republicans picked up six Senate seats, 68 House seats and nearly 700 seats in the state legislatures. It was a massive GOP rout at the national, state and city/town levels of government and the mainstream media either didn't see it coming or they didn't want to admit it was coming.
If anything, we are going to see even a larger blowout on November 6.
Fox News is just another liberal channel, as far as I can see. The reason why we perceive them as being conservative is because the alternatives are so far out if left field that even a moderately liberal channel like Fox News is perceived to be right-of-center.
Something to think about when watching them.
The polls are clearly nonsense..
Obama will not win a single state that he did not get 55% of the vote in 2008.
Obama has a TOP absolute TOP of 42-43% of the popular vote, and with the campaign he’s running, him not getting 40% isn’t beyond possibility.
Don’t believe for one second this race is neck and neck.. let alone Obama is up. Fight like it is neck and neck, but don’t fall for this Propoganda.
I agree with that. I watch FoxNews, but they screw up constantly. You can tell Conservatism isn’t truly in their heart.
In some ways FoxNews is good. In some ways, it muddles things so folks don’t truly see the left for all that it is.
Spot on.
You couldn’t be more wrong Rasmussen has been tracking this number monthly since early 2004, the results give a very good insight on how the parties will perform in the election check the results for 11/2005, 11/2006, 11/2008 & 11/2010.
In ras’s daily tracking polls he is using a +2-3 dem turnout model still.
Link to ras’s party affiliation table
Exactly what I was thinking except from the other side. If the lib media get it set in peoples’ minds that BO is 5 or 8 points ahead of Romney, then they can stuff the ballot box as much as they want with BO illegal ballots because people will expect it.
It would restore some of my faith in America if Obama got trounced.
I have a couple of celebratory ales, and a cigar, on standby.
The polls are being rigged so Obama’s army of lawyers will have some ammo when they challenge the election.
Silver hit 2008and 2010 on the nose.
Don’t underestimate the POWER OF MEDIA PROPAGANDA...
We did that in 2008.
The sheep are being bombed with it, from the Daily Show, to the View, to the Late Night Comics, to Saturday Night Live, to NPR, to E!, to Pacifica (Hate) Radio, etc...
There is a Howard Stern tape out there that Interviews potential Voters, that will make you Cry. Several still think Obama is running against John McCain, not Mitt Romney.
We underestimate the media at our peril. We should already have learned our lesson about this.
2010 was not a Presidential Election Year.
Sorry but I am 100% correct. Republicans have never enjoyed a party ID advantage in Presidential years since the 19th century or the first couple of decades of the 20th Century. Please prove me wrong.
Ras is smoking crack if he shows an R-D split favoring us in a Presidential year.
That's not the point, it's that you can poll whatever the f you want to poll in September. In October, everybody goes to LV and starts moving towards the correct numbers. That's how Ras nailed it -- tied for most accurate -- in 2008.
Who was he tied with? PEW, who started out on the other oversampling end and met Ras in the middle.
This race is tied National PV, with enough undecideds for Mittens soon-to-start ad blitz to get the traction it needs.
Yes Sir, you are correct, and that is my point, that no one should presume a party ID gap favoring the Republicans in a Presidential year. It has not happened for nearly a 100 years. So if Ras is showing such gap, he is wrong.
Yes, I think the party ID is closer to R-D of -3 to -4%.
We are on the same page. My objection was to an R party ID advantage in a presidential election year.
Well reading lessons may be in order also. I have said on this thread that Ras is currently using a +3 D model in his poll.
What happened in 1952 & 1968 have NOTHING to do with this election, prove me wrong.
So while you may be correct about the turnout model in Presidential years the 2010 was +1.3 R, what has gotten better for Obama and the rats in the past 2 years?
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