Well reading lessons may be in order also. I have said on this thread that Ras is currently using a +3 D model in his poll.
What happened in 1952 & 1968 have NOTHING to do with this election, prove me wrong.
So while you may be correct about the turnout model in Presidential years the 2010 was +1.3 R, what has gotten better for Obama and the rats in the past 2 years?
Sorry, you are right that he is using a +3D model, which I agree with 100%. No argument there.
Which shows things have gotten bad for 0 since 2008 which was a +7 year.
But mid-terms are very different, different dynamics, different cross-section of the population voting, etc. So it is hard to correlate to 2010 which was a +1.3R year.
I don't know exactly how things will be in terms of party ID gap, but +3R is not realistic. It is probably anywhere from even to +4D.