“.. the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.” That’s because they are getting ready for their run to reality.
That’s because they are getting ready for their run to reality.
Maybe, but methodology makes a difference in many ways.
For Example: Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
California had 12,000,000 voters in 2008 and Øbama won it by 25% nearly 3,000,000 votes.
So this "probability proportionate to size method" seems to give a bias toward Øbama. With huge victorys in California and New York possibly giving Øbama the popular vote total (the national poll numbers) while having no more influence on the Electoral College than a 1 vote edge.