Gallup 7 Day Tracking Trend

Gallup ^ | 9/16/2012 | Self

[Positive]

I too have been watching the polls at Real Clear Politics.

I must admit that I have been concerned about what seems to have been the trend. But I haven't bothered to scrutinize the items closely.

Tonight I took a close look at the Gallup Tracking Poll and realized that the data are available in greater depth than I realized.

Of course we know that it is a rolling average of the last 7 days. We know that it is 3050 Registered Voters, unlike Rassmussens Likely Voters.

When I clicked on the Gallup poll I realized for the first time, that each data point is available, even for download.

So I am pleased to see that the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.

The 7 days ending 9/4 - first day of DNC was Øbama 47-46.
Ending 9/5, Slick Willies speech, was Øbama 47 - 46.
Ending 9/6, Øbama's Lieathon, Øbama 48-45.
Ending 9/7, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/8, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/9, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/10, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/11, Øbama 50 - 43.
Ending 9/12, Øbama 50 - 44.
Ending 9/13, Øbama 49 - 44.
Ending 9/14, Øbama 49 - 45.
Ending 9/15, Øbama 48 - 45.

So during this period, Øbama's lead has been 1,1,3,4,5,5,6,7 - then - 6,5,4,3.

There is plenty of Gloom and Doom to go around. And this analysis is superficial, but it seems to me that Øbama's grip is slipping.

[Fresh Wind]

I am a huge poll/number junkie and I sign up on FR every 4 years just to get involved in the poll discussions.

Why do you have to sign up every 4 years? Registration here is permanent, unless you earn a zot, or opus out.

[JohnBovenmyer]

Why Romney’s camp would allow any of these moderators is beyond me.

The report is each side was able to reject one proposal from the other. Romney rejected MSNBC, Øbama rejected Fox. Leaving the rest of MSM as options. After getting Fox shut down Mitt should have offered Limbaugh (presuming his hearing could have made it work)) - his audience is much larger than CNNs - or perhaps a panel of Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck. Could also have thrown in some web based folks. Limiting options to TV is agreeing to lose.

[napscoordinator]

Romney is good in debates.

Romney has become a good debater, but he had some bad ones with the conservatives running. I hope he doesn’t bet 10,000 to Obama or anything...I think that was the low point of the Romney debates. As long as he doesn’t do anything that stupid again, he should be ok.

[Positive]

“.. the Gallup trend for Obama is faltering.”

That’s because they are getting ready for their run to reality.

Maybe, but methodology makes a difference in many ways.

For Example: Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.

California had 12,000,000 voters in 2008 and Øbama won it by 25% nearly 3,000,000 votes.

So this "probability proportionate to size method" seems to give a bias toward Øbama. With huge victorys in California and New York possibly giving Øbama the popular vote total (the national poll numbers) while having no more influence on the Electoral College than a 1 vote edge.

[Cruising For Freedom]

I lose interest after elections and forget usernames/passwords.

[rodeo-mamma]

I told you so, I was right, Just making a point, bumping my own comment.