But, but...that's what Ryan's on the ticket for - to appease those unwashed tea party people and sway them to vote for Mitt.
The key is understanding the turnout model the poll is using. In 2008 the turnout was +7.6% dem, in 2010 it was +1.3% R. In the last Rasmussen survey 8/2012 the party affiliation is +4.3% R.
Most polls are using turnout models that vary from +6 to +10% D. This is why Obama is leading in most polls.
The latest NYT/CBS poll has Obama +3 among likely voters 49-46%. Their turnout model is +6% D close to the 2008 turnout model. 35D/39R/32I for their likely voters in this poll.
I have a spreadsheet I use to see the results if the 2010 turnout model is used or any other model.
Below is the CBS NYT poll 'normalized' to reflect both the 2010 turnout model and the current Rasmussen party id.
<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->
| Poll Normalizer | ||||||
| Media Poll results | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Romney | 5.0% | 90.0% | 51.0% | |||
| Obama | 92.0% | 7.0% | 40.0% | |||
| Other | 2.0% | .0% | 2.0% | |||
| Undecided | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | |||
| Poll Sample | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Corrected turnout model | 34.7% | 36.0% | 29.3% | |||
| Corrected Results | Inc Undecideds 3/2 challenger | |||||
| Romney | 48.6% | 51.21% | ||||
| Obama | 46.7% | 47.54% | ||||
| Other | 1.3% | |||||
| Undecided | 3.6% |
So using the 2919 turnout model Romney instead of being behind 3% is up by 2%, if the undecideds break 3/1 for the challenger Romney is up almost 4% and 'wins' 51.2 to 47.5.
Let's look at the result if the current party affiliation is applied to the CBS/NYT numbers
<!-- BODY,DIV,TABLE,THEAD,TBODY,TFOOT,TR,TH,TD,P { font-family:"Arial"; font-size:x-small } -->
| Poll Normalizer | ||||||
| Media Poll results | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
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| Romney | 5.0% | 90.0% | 51.0% | |||
| Obama | 92.0% | 7.0% | 40.0% | |||
| Other | 2.0% | .0% | 2.0% | |||
| Undecided | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.0% | |||
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| Poll Sample | Democrats | Republicans | Independents | |||
| Corrected turnout model | 33.30% | 37.60% | 29.20% | |||
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Corrected Results | W Undecideds 3/1 to challenger | ||||
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| Romney | 50.4% | 53.1% | ||||
| Obama | 44.9% | 45.8% | ||||
| Other | 1.3% | |||||
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| Undecided | 3.5% |
We see in this case Romney is up by 5.5% not including undecided voters and 7.3% if undecided voters break 3/1 for the challenger.
This result is very close to the projection of the Univ of Colorado economic prediction from a few weeks ago, which has been correct since 1980.
Using this spreadsheet with a variety of polls from the CNN to ARG to Reuters the results have been very similar, WHEN THE SAME TURNOUT MODEL IS APPLIED TO THE RESULTS.
That is almost all these polls, have the candidate winning their party supporters by ~90 to 5%, the independents are going anywhere from +10-+15% for Romney over Obama.
The media gets the narrative they desire by using the turnout model that fits their narrative.
Having trouble with the preview
Mike Rowe gave Romney some top notch advice but it appears that Romney only saw an opportunity for a photo op of himself reading the advice before moving on. Romney would be well served by bringing Rowe in, having a sit down and listen with the guy and maybe taking him along on some of the factory appearances.
http://www.mikeroweworks.com/2012/09/the-first-four-years-are-the-hardest/
Rowe runs counter to every elitist academic in the country and says that a college education for all isn’t the salvation our political class would like us to believe.
Mike Rowe Speaks To Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee [05-11-11]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h_pp8CHEQ0
A great thread with a speech by Rowe on his realization that groups like PETA, and OSHA get it wrong a lot.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2650612/posts