Posted on 09/14/2012 7:43:57 PM PDT by re_tail20
Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging.
Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data indicates a tie in the the battleground states.
But it's not really a tie at all. All pollsters are using 2008 models of voter turnout. Some are combining '04 and '08 but skewing their samples to '08 numbers. African Americans cast 11 percent of the national vote in '04, but their participation swelled to 13 percent in '08. These 2 million new black voters backed Obama overwhelmingly. Will they come out in such numbers again? Will college and under 30 voters do so as well? Will Latino turnout be at historic highs? All these questions have to be answered "yes" for the polling samples so widely published to be accurate.
For example, when a poll shows an Obama lead among likely voters of, say 47-45, it is based on an assumption that blacks will cast 13 percent of the vote. But the lack of enthusiasm among Obama's base for his candidacy and their doubts about the economy make an 11 percent black turnout more likely. In this event, Romney would actually win in this sample by 46-45.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I think you meant palpable?
I never understood people not voting; even if they don’t feel the issues effect them, can’t they see how they might effect loved ones?
I’ve never missed an election since turning 18; I’ve written in candidates, selected obscure third-party candidates, anything to let “them” know that I wouldn’t be taken for granted (”they” love voter apathy). A neighboring town to the north had a school budget vote (which determines your property tax increases - in a state with among the highest property taxes in the nation) decided by 3 votes years ago, and another neighboring town to the south had a mayor’s race decided by a margin of 8 votes (originally 11, but reduced to 8 in the recount). There is no question that votes matter; what baffles me in a state like NJ is that the local races have much more of a direct impact on your personal finances, and still so many people don’t vote...
If You Live in a Blue State, Here Is What You Can Do To Help Romney Beat Obama
probably.
:p
A few years ago I had just returned from the polls during a midterm election. The polls were still open when I was at a nearby grocery store and asked the cashier if she’d voted yet. She said she didn’t have time.
I HEART Dickie’s perdictions. He’s always been right. Hasn’t he?
I voted one afternoon after work for our school board & budget (which is in the spring, so angry voters don’t vent on our property tax-consuming schools); I was the thrid person in my district to vote. The property taxes (often over $7K) are among the highest in the nation, and nobody could be bothered (they actually are just incredibly ignorant and passive).
Our town has 40K people in it.
I live in a deep-blue area that went heavily for BO in the 2008 election. I remember BO signs everywhere, BO card tables set up with BO literature in grocery store parking lots, BO bumper stickers everywhere -- and now, almost nothing. No bumper stickers, no yard signs.
I don't know if this means apathy or fear on the part of the electorate. Apathy about expressing a preference, fear about expressing a preference?
I know there were more people at the polls for the 2010 midterms than for the June primary (very few then). The paucity of voters in June could be explained: If there were a lot of Dems in the neighborhood, they wouldn't bother showing up if BO was the putative nominee anyhow. But right now I don't know what people are thinking. I don't know if they think inside "it doesn't matter" and won't show up at all.
I DO NOT want to see cars with BO stickers parked within spitting distance of the polling place as I did last time. Someone will have to get out a measuring tape and pace things off like they did last time. I don't know, I hope not. Who will show up at the polls this November in my neighborhood?
“If recent events have convinced even a confirmed Romney-skeptic like myself to vote for Romney/Ryan”
As Paul Henreid’s character Victor Laszlo in Casablanca said to Rick. Welcome to the fight. Watching the Nazis singing the fatherland makes one think.
mmm hmmm- and how many articles declaring ‘The Supreme Court will rule against Obamacare’ did we read before that stunning morning? Pundits were absolutely certain there was no way the supreme court could find such an unconstitutional act constitutional- but they did-
That’s caleld ‘countign chickens before they hatch- and ALL trhe pundits engage in it-
I hope for the sake of this coutnry whiny o doesn’t win another 4 years- however- there’s no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to chicago thugs
We are winning! Good Poll!
I think Romney has a substantial lead right now, and the lame-streams know this, and so they continue week after week to publish polls that are over-sampling Dims.
They are trying to make us believe that Zero has a lead that does not exist!
REMEMBER WISCONSIN? The exit polling that over-sampled Dims predicted the race was too close to call. Actual result: Walker won 53-47.
Come on, Freepers! Every time you see a bogus poll that puts Zero ahead, click on the poll internals. If the poll is over-sampling Dims, then get on every site you can to leave comments exposing this! There are too many people on our side who are BELIEVING this snake oil and who just might be depressed enough to stay home on election day (which is precisely the aim of these crap polls)!
I think Romney will win. But not due to Obumster voters changing their minds and votes, but more to the Independents getting off their arses to vote against the uncumbent! People don’t like to admit their mistakes, just look at this forum, just look at me, just look at the Pink Floyd fans who’ll never admit their fave band was mediocre and pretentious!
>>I think Romney will win. But not due to Obumster voters changing their minds and votes, but more to the Independents getting off their arses to vote against the uncumbent! <<
And don’t forget the conservatives who sat out and refused to vote for McCain.
That will NOT happen this time. Um....I hope....
But after all this terrorist crap, I don’t see that happening.
Exactly. Voter turn out will/can win it for us this time.
Dick Morris isn’t exactly the most accurate of analysts.
This is Presidential election is now projecting itself to be less about 'who' Romney is (or has been), and more about what Obama "has done" and what Obama "will do".
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