Assume for a moment that Obama voters are going to either vote for him, or not, and that Romney voters are about the same as the McCain voters and they will either vote for Romney, or not.
Knowing that McCain got about 4 million fewer votes than George Bush in 2004, and understanding that the downward trend of Republican voters reflected in that could result in another 4 million vote loss, we might currently have only 55 million voters available to put Romney over the top.
For him to beat Obama it is necessary for Obama to lose 14 million votes from his last electoral effort.
So, figure it out, how does Romney get 14 million hard core Democrat Obama voters to just stay home this time?
“So, figure it out, how does Romney get 14 million hard core Democrat Obama voters to just stay home this time?”
Doesn’t that assume all 69 million were that? Obviously they weren’t.
That might make more sense f McCain hadn’t basically conceded defeat a week or two before the election.
“We have nothing to fear from Barack Obama. Barack Obama is a good man. He’ll make a fine President...”
I paraphrase but it was something like that. That is when I knew it was over for real. He totally squandered the excitement that Palin had brought to the campaign.
You are assuming that the only people that voted for him were hardcore Democrats. Bad assumption. I think there are at least 14 million soccer moms, feel gooders, and independents that said let’s give this guy a shot. Remember, he was running against McCain which only made that “what the heck” decision even easier.
Interesting analysis.
Bush gained many votes from people who were tired of the Clinton years. People showed up at the polls who do not ordinarily vote like the Amish.
This appears to be the case with Reagan vs. Carter as well, although there you had a charismatic candidate with a lot of recognition as an actor and governor.
I think Romney will get more than 60 million votes. Obama will lose many core supported including the largest group who wanted to see the first black president elected.
What we saw in the democrat convention was trying to stir up fear of what people would lose under Romney. And most people do not buy it. More people fear four more years like the ones we’ve just gone through.
Also, mid-term elections showed a huge shift to the right as well as the right becoming much more energized. There is just not that much enthusiasm for hard-left policies the DNC is pushing.
So, to answer your question, Romney does not need to do anything to get Obama voters to stay home. He just needs to stay on-message with conservative principles being the solution and not do anything stupid.
Since Bush there has been a shift in numbers of democrats, republicans and independents. I think there have been a significant number who have moved from both parties to independent because both parties are too far left for their respective bases. That means independents will lean more for Romney this election than in previous ones.