Interesting analysis.
Bush gained many votes from people who were tired of the Clinton years. People showed up at the polls who do not ordinarily vote like the Amish.
This appears to be the case with Reagan vs. Carter as well, although there you had a charismatic candidate with a lot of recognition as an actor and governor.
I think Romney will get more than 60 million votes. Obama will lose many core supported including the largest group who wanted to see the first black president elected.
What we saw in the democrat convention was trying to stir up fear of what people would lose under Romney. And most people do not buy it. More people fear four more years like the ones we’ve just gone through.
Also, mid-term elections showed a huge shift to the right as well as the right becoming much more energized. There is just not that much enthusiasm for hard-left policies the DNC is pushing.
So, to answer your question, Romney does not need to do anything to get Obama voters to stay home. He just needs to stay on-message with conservative principles being the solution and not do anything stupid.
Since Bush there has been a shift in numbers of democrats, republicans and independents. I think there have been a significant number who have moved from both parties to independent because both parties are too far left for their respective bases. That means independents will lean more for Romney this election than in previous ones.
Last time (2008) Democrats had a massively successful voter registration campaign AMONG DEMOCRATS and that was followed with a massively successful get out the vote campaign.
They got an extra 8 million or so votes over prior periods without a lot of seat jumping.
Of course those people are less than motivated this election ~ they're getting nothing out of voting for Obama except higher rates of unemployment.
Republicans saw fewer voters last time simply because the top candidate, McCain, sounded like a Democrat, and then he gave up before the race was really on. Whatever get out the vote campaign there was, it kind of rolled up the sidewalks and went home early as well. The folks who would be doing that work just weren't there for McCain ~ again, that's because the GOP-e didn't ask them to participate, so they didn't.
Now, can somebody turn Romney into a master dialectition of Conservative principles AND make him charismatic? That'll get out the Socoms ~ although he might have to repudiate his current non-RTL RTL stance, maybe even become a Baptist or a Catholic ~ but if they see some positive movement their way, they'll show up.
Without some showing of sincerity though, they won't be showing up for get out the vote, and might not even vote.
Romney's best bet is to dispirit the Democrats and have them stay home barring an attempt to go after Republican voters.
Tell Mark that's the way it works, and that's how you win, and the candidates have to make some personal sacrifices or they just don't win!