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I work on the simple theory that people who vote tend to vote the same way time after time unless there's some sort of national emergency, or a nationwide trend is coming to a head, e.g. that white Southerners are becoming Republicans, or observant Jews are becoming Republicans, or church attending Catholics are becoming Republican.

There are very few people who bounce back and forth ~ and even your Independents end up voting for a Democrat or a Republican, and usually the same way every election.

The game plan under this theory is to secure your own base and turn them out for the election. At the same time you want to suppress the other guy's base and deter them from showing up for the election.

BTW, if you're a Democrat I'll let you in on a secret, the election this year is on WEDNESDAY, after the First Tuesday!

The alternative theory is that there's a broad middle full of independent moderates who are persuaded by messages from the candidates.

Actually, I think the alternative theory is garbage, and mostly because I watched LBJ use my preferred theory to whip up on Goldwater (who was, in fact, the first guy to propose it), and then saw Nixon do a job on the Democrats twice, and then saw Ronaldus Magnus do it to the Dems twice, and even George Bush do it to them twice!

The alternative theory was used by McGovern, Carter, Ford, Algore, Lurch, McCain, even Nixon in his first run, etc. People who think there's a broad middle and who campaign for their votes have a truly horrific LOSS record.