Posted on 09/10/2012 8:49:12 PM PDT by reprobate
The latest CNN/ORC poll released today shows a wider lead for President Obama than the previous CNN/ORC poll but it is doubly skewed. It massively under-samples independents while it also over-samples Democratic voters. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll official reports Obama at 52 to percent and Mitt Romney at 46 percent. Unskewed, the data reveals a 53 percent to 45 percent lead for Romney.
This new CNN/ORC survey, unlike many other analyzed, not only over-samples Democratic voters, but also massively under-samples independent voters, to produce a result more favorable to Barack...
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
but nothing to freak out about yet.
***
Correction, no reason to freak out, ever.
I beg to differ my good friend. Whores deliver a service for a price that is agreed on in advance by both parties that engage in the transaction of their own free will. Considering the repeat business it must be an agreeable transaction for both. Capitalism works!
Relative to the media they do it for free. Rumor has it that Obama buys the knee pads so it is not a negative cash flow for the media.
Amen to that.
That’s right, folks. Get your butt up and away from the computer and knock on doors and we’ll win in a landslide. Or just post and moan.
Learn to *think*.
National polls are *meaningless* unless they show a true wave election effect.
Why? Go back to the "electoral college is outdated, we need a national popular vote" lie spread by the Marxists in the Dem party.
In blue strongholds such as Illinois, New York, and California, the large number of urban centers (ghettos) means that Obama wins by a very large margin...in votes earned. But this does not mean anything for the number of electoral votes: as Floriduh 2000 shows us, if you win by 400 votes or 4,000,000 votes, you get the same number of EVs from a state.
But -- the flip side of this is -- if you have a large number of people supporting you, but most of them are in a few places -- that your support is actually *weaker* outside of the strongholds, since there are only so many supporters to go around.
So a national poll (especially one which overweights Democrats) may well make Obama look stronger than he is: but since a lot of his support is from places which are heavily Donkey already, it does NOT mean (but the pollster *does* intend for you to assume it means) that his support is at that level in all states, red, blue, and swing.
So to your point: if Obama's bump is in heavily blue areas (and I have seen reports that suggest it is) then the bump in the polls for him post-DNC convention is only good for breeding Donk complacency, or for propaganda.
To Cheers!
Many people that identify themselves as ‘independents’ are actually ‘disenfranchised’ conservatives who have left the left-leaning GOP...
You are absolutely right...keep in mind some of our votes are being tallied by a foreign entity...
If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time. If Romney/Ryan spend a lot of time in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida over the next few weeks, that's a bad sign. If they are in Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and New Hampshire, that's a good sign. If they are in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Jersey, that's a fantastic sign.
“If you want to know the state of a presidential campaign, look to where the campaign is spending their money and time.”
That is a good indicator. I read that Buckwheat is making big ad buys in the state of Washington. That’s not a good sign for the rats.
Well said.
Would someone clarify the distinction, please. Whenever I see/hear that missive, I always wonder if someone is trying to say that a registered voter is an unlikely voter until they declare themselves a likely voter. It seems like someone is saying that those in the registered category won't vote.
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