(CNN) - With 12 days to go until the recall election of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, two new polls indicate the Republican governor holds a single digit advantage over his Democratic challenger.
Clinton will be the most high profile Democratic surrogate to travel to Wisconsin to campaign for Barrett.
CNN says exit polls show Wisconsin recall election tied
Scott Walker’s triumph in Wisconsin Tuesday night beating out Democratic challenger Tom Barrett 53%–46%
Walker +7
Grain of salt...... =.=
Hold on, I looked at the internals....it appears there were 441 Demonrats, 397 Republicans...which leaves only 184 independents....for 1,022 adults.
That means 43% Demonrat, 38% Republican, 18% other.
A crap sample.
Note they have polled TWO groups and mixed them together. The first group 1022 people, the second 1584. The first group could be 100% Dem for all we know...they don't give a breakdown:
Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on September 7-9, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample also includes 875 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 709 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).
Scam!
One thing is certain... even when we discount the Democrat oversampling in polls like this one, we cannot ignore the more trusted pollsters like Rasmussen (which polls likely voters ).
It REALLY looks like Obama is leading in the polls at this point in time. We have to be realistic. It is what it is.
The main question is not whether or not the economy is bad. The economy IS bad and people know it.
However the huge factor is HOW DEPENDENT ARE AMERICANS BECOMING ON GOVERNMENT?
If the answer to the above question is this — VERY. Then yes, Obama might even win and we have to sadly conclude that we have crossed the tipping point in this country.
I have a very sick feeling that this might be the case (God forbid ). Consider these factors:
1) Nearly HALF of Americans pay no taxes ( 47% last I read ).
2) 1 in 3 Americans are in some sort of government welfare program.
3) 45 Million people on food stamps. Up by over 15 million compared to 4 years ago.
4) Obama promising to “help” those underwater in their mortgages and college students and grads who cannot pay back their college loans.
5) Auto workers in swing states like Michigan and Ohio being brainwashed into believing that it is good to bail out GM because Obama cares and wants to save their jobs.
Those factors CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED.
Once a significant number of our populace suck on the government’s teat.... it becomes like a drug which is very difficult to withdraw from and they will vote accordingly.
LLS
I am waiting for polls that state they are up by 15 before I even think it is even.
JoMa
The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:
The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709
Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.
Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.
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Nuts!