I can’t believe Obama is actually polling ahead. It shouldn’t be even close at this point. I’m worried that he isn’t really ahead at all, and that they’re only publishing these fictitious polls so that rampant voter fraud in the real election, when it happens, doesn’t seem to have tipped the balance.
On the other hand, if the polls are real, then we’re done for as a country. There are too many leeches that are living off of my hard work. F*ck ‘em. I’ll leave. I’m ready.
It all has to do with party affiliation of those polled compared to party affiliation of those that vote. It seems in just about every poll lately that the Romney's support among Republicans is greater than Obama's support among Democrats. And Romney has more support among Independents. However, the polls also tend to put more Democrats than Republicans in the sample of voters asked...so that the polls look fairly tight. The reason the polls skew toward polling Democrats is that historically there are more voting Democrats than voting Republicans. However, there are indications (such as a Rasmussen study I have seen) that this is now actually backwards, and that there are now more Republican voters than Democrat voters. I am cautiously optimistic that this means Romney will win in a land slide...since it will mean that more Republicans will vote than Democrats...that fewer Republicans will cross over and vote for Obama than Democrats crossing over and voting for Romney, and more Independents will vote for Romney. Result: there ain't enough fraud they can do to keep Obama from being stomped flat!
Maybe, but I believe Obama will loseby several points, unless something dramatic happens (Iran or October surprise of Romney scandal).
That is why every old-school Democrat in the country except Joe Biden is coming out against Obama.
Pat Caddell? Mort Zuckerman? Walter Russell Mead? Bob Woodward? All of them are firing at Obama.
They're also oversampling Democrats at an incredible rate.
Worry in October. Don't worry today.
I suspect that the polls are not that far off. Unfortunately, we are not the same country we were in 1980, and it probably is not going back. L&L.
Here's an example I used in another thread:
If 56 people vote for Obozo out of 100 people voting that's 56%
But
if 23 people vote for Obozo out of 50 people voting that's also 56%
This is why voter turnout for your side is so important. If you only look at the percentages then you wouldn't know 50 less people bothered to show up to vote for your guy.
Right now, Obozo is running ads in California....and several freepers have commented that if this is true than Obozo must be in real trouble.
I as well as others think its voter apathy...they just aren't going to get off their butts to vote.
However, I've also wondered if its the gay marriage evolution by Obozo that's turning them (Blacks and Hispanics in particular) off. After all, they where the ones who made sure the gay marriage prop didn't pass in California to all our astonishment.