Posted on 09/07/2012 9:53:32 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball
September 7, 2012 - National General Election Ballot
National
Likely voters Sep 4-6
Obama 46%
Romney 49%
Other/Undecided 5%
Sample size: 1200 likely voters
Sample dates: September 4-6, 2012
Margin of error: ± 3 percentage points Question wording: If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan? (names rotated)
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 85% to 11% among self-described Democrats (38% of likely voters). Romney leads Obama 92% to 5% among self-described Republicans (34% of likely voters). And Romney leads Obama 49% to 44% among self-described independent voters (28% of likely voters).
Romney leads Obama 54% to 41% among men (48% of likely voters). Among women (52% of likely voters), Obama leads Romney 51% to 45%.
Romney leads Obama 57% to 39% among white voters (76% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 89% to 5% among African American voters (12% of likely voters).
Obama leads Romney 50% to 46% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely voters). Among voters age 50 and older (51% of likely voters), Romney leads Obama 52% to 43%.
Romney leads Obama 50% to 46% among likely voters interviewed on a landline (83% of likely voters). Obama leads Romney 48% to 45% among likely voters interviewed on a cell phone (17% of likely voters).
A total of 46% of likely voters say they would never vote for Obama in the general election and 43% of likely voters say they would never vote for Romney in the general election.
A total of 87% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Obama say they would never vote for Romney. A total of 89% of those likely voters saying they would vote for Romney say they would never vote for Obama.
In 2010 it was R+1
During August 2012, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.
Yes, I was just explaining this to a young man this morning. The left side is much easier to retain than the right side.
This demorat convention was all about working on the emotion driven women on the right side of the equation over control of their ovaries. All the rats need to do is get a small number of these emotion driven women to move over the line = game over.
Moving anyone from the left side of the equation is MUCH harder. Free is hard to turn down and work and responsibility are just not appealing at all if you can get enough free.
Game over. Left wins.
I think an EMPTY CHAIR could beat ZERO in NOVEMBER...
These polls don’t give the internals anymore. You have to pay for Gallup and Ras. They also don’t show the prior numbers which would be helpful when a three day average poll changes 8 points in one day. That seems like a 24 point swing but no one notices.
I think Rasmussen has Obama ahead in today’s poll.
How come this poll has Romney up 3 points while the Gallup and Ipsos/Reuters have Obama up 4 points, based on a rolling average? It’s all so exasperating.
Could have something to do with the current administration suing gallup because they didn’t like the numbers.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/08/obama_holder_sledgehammer_the_first_amendment.html
Look, here is the cold hard truth. There are more potential democrat votes than republican votes in America. This is because half of Americans pay no income tax at all and a large percentage of them are on the government dole. Romney has to turnout every vote he can and do his best to suppress dem turnout by negative campaigning. That’s it. There is no conservative majority in America, the majority are the ones with their hands out. Luckily a good portion of them do not vote.
Yesterday, there was a thread stating that the party ID had changed to record highs for republicans. It was so high, there were more republicans than democrats. On top of that, if anyone thinks that the likelyness of democrats to show up at the polls being higher than republicans, they need their political heads examined. The enthusiasm for Obama is way down from 2008, and even though Romney wasn't everyone's favorite candidate, he carries more enthusiasm than McCain did.
Add up all the factors, and consider the fact that if you didn't vote for Obama last time, you aren't going to this time, and Obama is toast.
Most likely even much less since most of his voters are not going to come out to vote.
Plus also the Romney and Ryan have been drawing more and more people.
We are still a center-right nation by far.
I don’t know about this. In 1980, polls had Carter in the lead by 4 percent or so in October.
National polling is useless when it comes to the Presidential election as the election is a state by state electoral college vote not a national winner take all. The key becomes how does the candidates stack up in the approximately dozen swing states. Those will determine the winner.
The Left has the advantage of free campaign ads in the form of biased reporting by the MSM. Fluff pieces for O&B, and hit pieces against R&R. Coordinated "talking points" that the so-called news outlets use at the same time. While it's great that there seems to be more enthusiasm for the Republican ticket, and therefore more $$ rolling in, the Dems have a built-in advantage that is tough to overcome.
Having a better message is one thing. Getting that message out to the independents/undecideds is another thing.
The only polls that count are those state by state with the large electoral votes. Unless we can see those states at least breaking for the GOP at least by 50% or more, this means zip. A national popular poll is useless unless it comports with the swing states going to Mitt. So far , this has not happened in any national poll or even state poll for that matter. It is very depressing. The taking lemmings seem to outnumber the makers in those swing states.
We are still a center-right nation.
Folks, the only poll that counts is on Election Day, 2012.
Most of the takers will not vote, period.
Not exactly....swing states are the key,both large and small.For example,I live in the Boston broadcast market...TV and radio.Boston TV is wall-to-wall Presidential election ads not because Massachusetts,or Connecticut or Rhode Island is in play but because of New Hampshire,which *is* in play.New Hampshire,the most heavily populated part of which watches and listens to Boston stations,has *four* Electoral votes.
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