Yesterday, there was a thread stating that the party ID had changed to record highs for republicans. It was so high, there were more republicans than democrats. On top of that, if anyone thinks that the likelyness of democrats to show up at the polls being higher than republicans, they need their political heads examined. The enthusiasm for Obama is way down from 2008, and even though Romney wasn't everyone's favorite candidate, he carries more enthusiasm than McCain did.
Add up all the factors, and consider the fact that if you didn't vote for Obama last time, you aren't going to this time, and Obama is toast.
Plus also the Romney and Ryan have been drawing more and more people.
The reality is that, those who have had voted for Obama, and regreted their decision will either vote Obama out or stay home. This will not be 2008.
I wonder whether party registration figures are available from the various Secretary of States’ offices. If they are someone could take polls with internals that break out responses by party affiliation in the swing states and redo the numbers with realistic weighting.