doesn’t matter. The only things that matter are Florida, VA and Ohio and to a lesser extent, Colorado. Obama might lose the popular vote by a few million and still win this thing which is why voting for an actual candidate that can actually defeat Obama is important.
The chances of either winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college are exceedingly slim. There is only one example of this happening in modern history.
Of course, the EV is what counts in the end. On the other hand, vote distribution being what it is, it's virtually impossible to win the general election with less than 48.5% of the (two-party) popular vote
If Obama loses popular votes by millions, Romney will get several states by default, including MA, IL and CA, I believe, since those states approved modified EC stand that gives their EC to the popular vote winner. They’ll be enough to give him the presidency.
“doesn’t matter. The only things that matter are Florida, VA and Ohio and to a lesser extent, Colorado. Obama might lose the popular vote by a few million and still win this thing which is why voting for an actual candidate that can actually defeat Obama is important.”
I realized as much as I read the title article.
The “national poll numbers” count for little in this election.
What will make the difference is the vote totals in less than a dozen states (the ones you list above are most important). My take:
Florida — went for Obama last time, but Romney should win comfortably there this time. Although we haven’t yet seen how the left is going to attempt to scare the old folks regarding their Social Security and Medicare bennies.
Virginia — this is going to be critical, as Virgil Goode may pull enough votes to prevent either candidate from winning a majority, and the winner will be by plurality. Looks tough for Romney, be he MUST win Virginia to win the presidency.
Ohio — another tough one for Romney, went comfortably for Obama last time. Obama had been leading there for months, but within the last couple of days Romney seems to have eked out a lead. Whether he can hold it or not, can’t say. But without Ohio, Romney loses.
Colorado — I’ve come to the conclusion that the influx of liberals (from California and elsewhere) have probably “tipped” Colorado to “the blue side” for good. There may be an exception now or then, but at best it’s a toss-up right now and I sense it’s going to “go Obama”. Romney can win without Colorado (and it looks like all future Republican candidates will have to reckon on winning without it), but he has to win the preceding three states to have a shot at this.
Barring unforseen events, I predict Romney will win in the electoral college 270-268.
Wish I could be more optimistic, but that’s how I see it.