[okie01]

The only things that matter are Florida, VA and Ohio and to a lesser extent, Colorado. Obama might lose the popular vote by a few million and still win this thing which is why voting for an actual candidate that can actually defeat Obama is important.

Of course, the EV is what counts in the end. On the other hand, vote distribution being what it is, it's virtually impossible to win the general election with less than 48.5% of the (two-party) popular vote

[Redmen4ever]

With regard to the battleground states, four year ago Obama outspent McCain enormously, all this spending being in the battle ground states. This advantage skewed Obama’s performance in the battleground states relative to his nationwide figure. This time, Obama will not have much if any advantage moneywise. Therefore, we can suppose that just about all the battleground states will fall one way or the other, in line with the nationwide popular vote. I’m talking of CO, FL, IA, NH, NV, OH, NC, VA and WI. If Romney wins the popular vote by at least 1 full point, he’ll win in the Electoral College.