University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320 - 218

National Polls ^ | 9/7/12 | staff

[Crimson Elephant]

I just cannot see what people who predict Obama the favorite are seeing. There is NO WAY he wins Fl, NC, and Indiana again, and Ohio and VA are clearly very close...so there is no reasoning to make Obama a clear EC favorite.

[pogo101]

Hey, maybe here in California, we’ll hold Obama under 65%!!

[Future Snake Eater]

Intrade also had Obamacare being struck down by SCOTUS by a pretty wide margin. As the decision loomed, the gap closed pretty quickly, but it was still wrong on that one, and that was a BIG one.

[thingumbob]

Even with the keystone pipeline debacle and the EPA fight against the coal industry courtesy of the O’bummer administration?

[WalterSkinner]

..the best scenario for Obama gives him around 200 EVs--I don't think it will be that close

CREATE YOUR OWN EV MAP

[kingattax]

this model has a 100% accuracy record for the last 32 years.

it even correctly predicted the 2000 outcome that Bush would lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college.

[DrDude]

I have been following closely and use the create a map on RCP. I have been adjusting since Romney locked up the Nomination. I believe you are very close. I have the best case scenario for BO at 221 EV’s. Just my thoughts.
Intrade isn’t really that accurate. It is legal gambling.

[Poison Pill]

The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

It's generally accurate at the time of the event. In this case on election day. It was dead wrong on the SCOTUS Obamacare decision.

[ShasheMac]

Hey, no more worries, it’s all over, I just made ‘em all red! No need to thank me.

[Leto]

Intrade is also a small enough market that a campaign can buy the desired result with pocket change, I prefer the economic model.

[Reily]

He will NOT win Virginia.

The novelty act is old now, skittles did not rain down from heaven. There is little enthusiasm among the “usual suspects” now. There is much more on the GOP side in spite of the fact its Romney. Romney is running a much more professional campaign here in Northern Virginia then McCain did. It's visible and aggressive. I have yet to see a Zero Zomba going door to door in my neighborhood. That was an almost weekly occurrence in 2008.

[matthew fuller]

I’ve never invested any money there, but I do consider them as important, and valid as most polls.

[matthew fuller]

Current Intrade odds-

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.3%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
42.5%

[Future Snake Eater]

They can definitely be pretty accurate, but they’re far from the final word like some folks tend to think. Up until the Obamacare decision, I probably would’ve counted them as practically infallible.

[Thickman]

InTrade is much more difficult to participate in since the law was passed ot allowing U.S. citizens to use credit cards. It takes several days for checks or wire transfers to clear. I quit using the site - I assume others have as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if money were being “invested” (read: George Soros) just to skew the numbers in hopes of influencing the conventional wisdom.

[1035rep]

Mitt Romney’s vice president July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%