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University of Colorado Prediction Model: Romney Wins 320 - 218
National Polls ^ | 9/7/12 | staff

Posted on 09/07/2012 1:39:18 PM PDT by LucianOfSamasota

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I just cannot see what people who predict Obama the favorite are seeing. There is NO WAY he wins Fl, NC, and Indiana again, and Ohio and VA are clearly very close...so there is no reasoning to make Obama a clear EC favorite.


21 posted on 09/07/2012 2:59:36 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: LucianOfSamasota

Hey, maybe here in California, we’ll hold Obama under 65%!!


22 posted on 09/07/2012 2:59:48 PM PDT by pogo101
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To: matthew fuller

Intrade also had Obamacare being struck down by SCOTUS by a pretty wide margin. As the decision loomed, the gap closed pretty quickly, but it was still wrong on that one, and that was a BIG one.


23 posted on 09/07/2012 3:03:00 PM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: ScottinVA
Even with the keystone pipeline debacle and the EPA fight against the coal industry courtesy of the O’bummer administration?
24 posted on 09/07/2012 3:04:17 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: LucianOfSamasota
..the best scenario for Obama gives him around 200 EVs--I don't think it will be that close

CREATE YOUR OWN EV MAP

25 posted on 09/07/2012 3:05:59 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: Col Frank Slade
this model has a 100% accuracy record for the last 32 years.

it even correctly predicted the 2000 outcome that Bush would lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college.

26 posted on 09/07/2012 3:19:30 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: WalterSkinner

I have been following closely and use the create a map on RCP. I have been adjusting since Romney locked up the Nomination. I believe you are very close. I have the best case scenario for BO at 221 EV’s. Just my thoughts.
Intrade isn’t really that accurate. It is legal gambling.


27 posted on 09/07/2012 3:42:58 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: goldstategop
The Intrade prediction model hasn’t been wrong yet. It correctly predicted Obama’s win in 2008.

It's generally accurate at the time of the event. In this case on election day. It was dead wrong on the SCOTUS Obamacare decision.

28 posted on 09/07/2012 3:44:00 PM PDT by Poison Pill (Take your silver lining and SHOVE IT!)
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To: WalterSkinner

Hey, no more worries, it’s all over, I just made ‘em all red! No need to thank me.


29 posted on 09/07/2012 4:22:33 PM PDT by ShasheMac
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To: goldstategop

Intrade is also a small enough market that a campaign can buy the desired result with pocket change, I prefer the economic model.


30 posted on 09/07/2012 4:22:55 PM PDT by Leto
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To: Crimson Elephant
He will NOT win Virginia.

The novelty act is old now, skittles did not rain down from heaven. There is little enthusiasm among the “usual suspects” now. There is much more on the GOP side in spite of the fact its Romney. Romney is running a much more professional campaign here in Northern Virginia then McCain did. It's visible and aggressive. I have yet to see a Zero Zomba going door to door in my neighborhood. That was an almost weekly occurrence in 2008.
31 posted on 09/07/2012 4:34:06 PM PDT by Reily
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To: goldstategop; Future Snake Eater

I’ve never invested any money there, but I do consider them as important, and valid as most polls.


32 posted on 09/07/2012 8:06:28 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Obama- If you get re-elected, who are you gonna blame for the mess you will inherit?)
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To: matthew fuller

Current Intrade odds-

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
57.3%

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
42.5%


33 posted on 09/07/2012 8:12:00 PM PDT by matthew fuller (Obama- If you get re-elected, who are you gonna blame for the mess you will inherit?)
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To: matthew fuller

They can definitely be pretty accurate, but they’re far from the final word like some folks tend to think. Up until the Obamacare decision, I probably would’ve counted them as practically infallible.


34 posted on 09/08/2012 5:02:19 AM PDT by Future Snake Eater (CrossFit.com)
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To: matthew fuller

InTrade is much more difficult to participate in since the law was passed ot allowing U.S. citizens to use credit cards. It takes several days for checks or wire transfers to clear. I quit using the site - I assume others have as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if money were being “invested” (read: George Soros) just to skew the numbers in hopes of influencing the conventional wisdom.


35 posted on 09/08/2012 9:57:59 AM PDT by Thickman (Obama - President Ubiquitous (a.k.a. P.U.))
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To: matthew fuller

Mitt Romney’s vice president July 2012

Paul Ryan Intrade chances: 4.1%

Rob Portman Intrade chances: 32%


36 posted on 09/11/2012 7:34:24 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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