Posted on 08/27/2012 9:37:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Mitt Romney up by a point over Barack Obama 47% to 46%. (46% is a truly horrible number for an incumbent.) But it is going to take more than a few narrow polls to change what I sense to be the widespread mood here that Romney is very narrowly losing, but the race remains winnable.
So it was with great interest that I listened to the thoughts a longtime, much-respected GOP operative, whom I will nickname the Gloomy Guru. Among GG’s observation:
Romney will win North Carolina
Ohio is iffy in GG’s view, though one very smart, very connected Ohio GOPer thinks the state is lost
New Mexico is lost
Colorado looking good
Pennsylvania is fool’s gold, not going to happen
Wisconsin can happen
Virginia will be a dogfight, is critical
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Consider this:
Year: 2004 Proposition 200, an Arizona state initiative passed with 56% of the vote, it requires individuals to produce proof of citizenship before they may register to vote or apply for public benefits in Arizona.
Opposition to Prop 200 was bipartisan:
Senator John McCain (R), Senator Jon Kyl (R), Governor Janet Napolitano (D), the Arizona Republican Party, the Arizona Democratic Party, the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, the AFL-CIO, and other elected officials and organizations were all opposed to “Protect Arizona Now”.
Prop 200 won the support of 47 percent of the state’s Hispanic citizens.
Rush covering this now.
He probably could not. Ohio is generally about 2 points more GOP than the national average.
With that said, if Romney won all the Bush 2004 states except Ohio but won Wisconsin, he'd win.
Rush is quoting this now.
So if we lose with our Mittens, the issue will be all those Hispanic votes he could have won if only he were more open about his support for amnesty?
What, might that have swung the Hispanic vote by 5 or 10% at most? (Despite, that is, the other party promising them affirmative advantaged, protected status in perpetuity!)
And it would bring in a baseline of 10 million new voters that the Dems could count on by a 3-to-1 ratio, only to grow over time?
Gloomy Gurus seem to believe they can get people to look beyond the simple math of their argument—and yet they can’t get our populace to kick Obama out of office?
What a great commander! I concede the point also.
VA has odd year state elections, which tend to produce GOP governors due the different issues and turnout models. This will be an even year election, coupled with a Presidential election coupled with the Black incumbent running for reelect. There will be massive turnout in Richmond and Hampton areas. The last set of VA polls I saw had the race even despite a 50/50 split in Blue NoVA (which the Dema have generally been carrying by a much wider margin). That shows the level of offset due to Richmond and Hampton Roads.
On top of that you now have Goode in the race, who will siphon off Conservatives who would have held their noses and voted Romney.
Over the last 16 years I’ve lived in Falls Church, Burke and Herndon, and have followed all the elections closely. VA, IMHO, is going to fall somewhere between a squeaker for Romney and a solid win for Obama.
Anyone know what the breakout was in 2008 in Ohio? (e.g., how many Dems votes vs. Reps). Obama won the national vote by 7.27 IIRC, but Ohio only by 4 something, meaning if the popular vote is close, one would expect Romney to win. In 2004, Bush won by 1.5% nationally, but took Ohio by more than that (2.1%). In general, the Midwest has been trending somewhat GOP. It’s hard to see losing Ohio, unless Obama wins the national popular vote.
Ha ha. So you’re saying illegals are the cowbirds of the human species?
Great news... hope that holds! Ohio will be THE state to watch during the campaign, IMO.
I would think R-R would have a good chance to win in Wisconsin as well... with Ryan on the ticket, and the voters elected to keep Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Kleefisch...?
Whatever happened to Colorado and New Mexico? I could be wrong, but wasn't Colorado a fairly red state back in the early 2000s? New Mexico elected a Republican governor... why is NM politically so different from Arizona?
Yes! I caught that on cspan! Ryan is great on the stump!
The ticket is so upside down but it is what it is, considering we balcanized ourselves in the primary. (To the sheer delight of the Establishment.)
lots of Romney campaign ads in NC
Dunno if it's because "NC is a battleground", or because of the DNC convention coming up, and Romney is trying to let some air out of the balloon.
Because I gotta tell ya, barring something unusual happening in the next 2 months, NC ain't a battleground state IMHO.
New Mexico was lost when Taco Bill started allowing illegals to get Drivers Licenses. Once you get a state DL you are as good as legal and they get to register to vote.
I’m beginning to smell some invidious politics here. I remember speculation about how certain GOP nominations went to more baggage-laden or less able candidates in 2010 due to amazing financing that disappeared in the general election. In particular, Sharon Angle in Nevada and Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, both of whom lost winnable campaigns. The speculation is that legal Democrat donations went to getting the most beatable candidate. I have read in this forum that this may also have helped Congressman Akin in this year’s Missouri Senate race.
I cite the above because a great method to win tight elections is to also fund 3rd party candidacies. Would Clinton have won without H Ross Perot running in 1992 and 1996. The Democrats no longer like Ralph Nader as they feel that he cost Al Gore the 2000 election, especially in Florida.
Now we have former GOP/Democrat/Independent Virgil Goode running for President of the Constitution Party submitting his required list of supporters to Virginia to get on the ballot there. His conservative voters would otherwise vote (reluctantly) for Romney-Ryan. Also former GOP Governor Gary Johnson (NM) is running as the Libertarian Party Candidate and has the credentials to pull Ron Paul voters away from Romney. It will be interesting to see what happens if Romney starts to get a real lead in the polls. Would money and media interest increase for these gents?
Romney is limited in what he can spend until AFTER the convention. It is normal procedure for any candidate to be extremely vague at this point in the campaign process.
Sure, their solution is open the illegal immigrant floodgates all the way, try to “connect” with 40% of millions of new voters thereby insuring future losses and btw, screwing our country in the process.
Stupid A holes.
No way voter ID affects Filthadelphia voting for Zero. Those in charge of polling places will be dishonest, as they always have been. Many precincts there always have 100% turnout. That won’t change.
Ed Rollins is always gloomy about campaigns which did not hire Ed Rollins to run them.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.