Cheer Up: Four Reasons Why Obama May Lose Big in November

Townhall.com ^ | August 25, 2012 | Daniel Doherty

[Kaslin]

Ever since former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney clinched the 2012 Republican presidential nomination last May, President Obama and his surrogates have waged a divisive and dishonest re-election campaign in order to distract voters from his failed record. To that end, they have spent millions of dollars on negative campaign advertisements suggesting the presumptive Republican nominee is, among other things, a “vulture capitalist," a “felon” a “pioneer in outsourcing,” and -- most recently -- a coldhearted technocrat responsible for the death of a steelworker’s terminally ill wife. These outrageous charges have been discredited by independent fact-checkers, of course, but at least one spot continues to air in swing states. In any case, perhaps it’s not surprising that some conservatives worry these factually dubious attack ads could impede Governor Romney’s campaign momentum.

And while these concerns are decidedly real and should not be taken lightly, I nevertheless believe Barack Obama faces four significant challenges in the days ahead:

(1): This election is going to come down to jobs and the economy. As much as Team Obama (and our sycophantic national media) want to obsess about Mitt Romney’s tax returns, Paul Ryan’s “draconian” cuts to Medicare, or Congressman Akin’s callous comments -- the simple fact is that the national unemployment rate is still an incredible 8.3 percent. And further, it has been above 8 percent for 42 straight months. This is what Americans care about. No incumbent president since World War II, according to the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, has won re-election with the unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent. This precedent would be deeply troubling to Team Obama in any event -- but it is particularly noteworthy now since the nonpartisan Congressional Budget office (CBO) released a study on Thursday reporting that the unemployment rate will exceed eight percent for the rest of this year. Even worse, the CBO added, if lawmakers in Washington don’t strike a bipartisan debt deal in time -- that is, before the country plummets off the so-called “fiscal cliff” -- the economy will slide into another recession in 2013. The stakes -- as they say -- have never been higher. The question, then, is who is the best candidate to lead America during these difficult times? One alternative is a president whose latest (unanimously defeated) budget proposal literally never balanced and theoretically added more than $11 trillion to the federal debt over ten years. The other is a successful former Republican Governor from a Blue State who balanced his state’s budget four years in a row without raising taxes.

(2): Governor Romney’s fundraising numbers are striking:

Mitt Romney’s cash advantage over President Obama grew to more than $60 million last month, according to reports filed Monday with the Federal Election Commission.

The joint fund-raising committee for Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, claimed cash on hand totaling $185.9 million at the end of July, compared to $123.7 million for Obama’s joint committee.

The candidates’ joint fund-raising committees include their own campaigns, their parties’ national committees and other affiliated committees.

This is a remarkable achievement. Why? Incredibly, last March the president enjoyed a ten-to-one cash on hand advantage over his Republican challenger. Since that time, however, Team Obama profligately funneled millions of dollars into negative advertisements which, according to numerous surveys, have demonstrably failed to make a meaningful impact. (The latest Fox News survey shows Mitt Romney now leading by one percentage point). It’s also worth mentioning that stringent federal election laws prevent Mitt Romney from spending general election contributions until after the Republican National Convention. In other words, expect to see an ad blitz over the next several months, especially in crucial swing states, explicitly reminding voters that the president raided $700 billion from Medicare to pay for an expensive and unpopular new entitlement, loosened work requirements for welfare recipients, and signed into law an $825 billion “stimulus” package that failed on its own terms.

(3): Republicans are much more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in November, according to at least one national survey. As Guy reported last month, voter enthusiasm among Republicans outpaces that of Democrats for the first time since 2004.

As the graph shows, Democratic enthusiasm has dropped precipitously -- 22 percentage points in four years -- while at the same time Republican enthusiasm has risen 16 full percentage points. The math speaks for itself. (Who would have thought, by the way, that The One would watch helplessly as his base abandoned him en masse less than four years after his historic rise to prominence?) Now, of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats will cross party lines and endorse his opponent. I doubt that many will. But it does suggest, however, that a plurality of Democrats -- many of whom are disenchanted with the president’s economic policies -- will elect to stay home on Election Day. Put simply, Republicans can expect a higher voter turnout in 2012 than in any other recent presidential election; and Democrats are panicking for good reason.

(4): This campaign will be about ideas -- not personalities -- as long as Republicans don’t lose control of the narrative. This is precisely why I believe Mitt Romney chose Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) as his running mate in the first place. Unlike Democrats, Republicans have solutions to the nation’s most pressing problems. For example, Medicare’s own actuaries estimate the program will be insolvent within twelve years. And yet, President Obama and his cabinet -- after nearly four years in office -- have failed to do anything whatsoever to avoid that outcome. Sure, one can argue that the Paul Ryan plan “ends Medicare as we know it” -- but so does doing nothing. Failing to act now -- while there’s still time -- will only trigger real “draconian” spending cuts later.

We need leaders who aren’t afraid to tackle the tough issues. And while Romney/Ryan has made great strides in laying out a clear vision for the country, I am absolutely convinced the current occupant of the White House has not.

There’s nothing novel about the individual points above. But taken collectively -- that is to say, if voters recognize the president’s economic policies have prolonged the recession, and if Mitt Romney out-raises Barack Obama financially, and if a plurality of Democrats stay home on Election Day, and finally, if the candidates discuss real issues on the campaign trail -- I think Governor Romney will triumph in November. On the other hand, to borrow a phrase from Alexander Hamilton -- one of the principal authors of The Federalist Papers -- “this is a thing more ardently to be wished than seriously to be expected.”

No one disputes President Obama’s charisma, personal charm and rhetorical skill. And some Democrats will vote for him no matter how much his policies have negatively impacted their lives. In the end, however, the question that the American people must ask themselves -- as Ronald Reagan once encouraged citizens to ask -- is this: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?

We the People, of course, have a choice to make on Election Day. One that I believe will determine the trajectory and fate of this nation.

Let us hope we choose wisely.

[huldah1776]

“I sense a seething hatred for all policies Obama from real citizens that actually matter.”

If that hatred does get all citizens out to vote then their might be a change in the White House, be it slight.

However, it is much easier to go to the polls once every four years than to have to work, pay bills, fill out tax forms, etc. Remember the stampedes at Walmart the day after Thanksgiving?

[ConservativeDude]

You know what is interesting, and something that we can’t forget. All throughout 2010, the polls and turnout models (including the “intensity factor”) suggested that the GOP was going to blowout the dems in the election. Of course for all of us here and elsewhere, that is, all the junkies who follow this closely, we were thinking things like “don’t jinx it” or “don’t talk too much about it lest the dems ramp up their turnout machine!”. That sort of thing.

And in the end, the turnout models that predicted the dems would get shellacked were spot on.

So I think we all have to remember that FR doesn’t represent in any respect whatsoever the voting public.

All of the data right now that can be ascertained at this moment, suggest that obama is going to lose and lose big.

May it be so.

[garjog]

“votes locked up, from states such as California, New York, the New England states”

Do you think Rom has a chance to win Massachusetts?

[patriot08]

.

If the American voters only knew...

The best Obama exposure site on the net:

The Obama File
http://theobamafile.com/

The United States Library of Congress has selected
TheObamaFile.com for inclusion in its historic collection
of Internet materials
http://theobamafile.com/LibraryOfCongress.html

Just a few of the pages:

http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_politics.html

http://www.theobamafile.com/index_next_personal.html

http://www.theobamafile.com/BarackObama.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_family/FamilyPage.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaEducation.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaPsychology.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaWife.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/ObamaAssociates.htm

http://www.theobamafile.com/ObamaIconography.htm

.

[ExCTCitizen]

I doubt Maine, New Hampshire will be going for ZERO again. CT is only 51% Obama in the poll, so I won’t put CT in ZERO’s camp.

[Gaffer]

These people do not think beyond the next recharge of their EBT and the moment at hand... there are a few that are smart and lazy and greedy, but they are far outnumbered by sloths who’d rather sit on their asses and collect money from someone else......if there isn’t a payday-right-now for them and it requires them to make an effort on their own, they’ll lay in bed until after noon.

[DGarr]

Mr. Romney has few topics about which he can now speak. One by one, the substantive topics for debate are disappearing, deemed too problematic for the Romney campaign to address. Business acumen, experience as governor, US Olympics, Romney budget, women’s issues, immigration reform, all toxic. Mr. Romney is reduced to dragging out the birther baggage to pad his stump speeches and give his base a few crumbs. And to call attention away from his flip-flopping on all important issues.

But what is the single issue on which Mr. Romney has never flip-flopped? He stands doggedly firm on never, under any circumstances, releasing his tax returns.

Why?

It is not just liberals who want to see Romney’s tax returns.
It is 63% of American voters who do.

The longer Mr. Romney delays, the more suspicious it appears.

Obama released 8 years of tax returns
GW Bush 10 years
Clinton 12 years
GHW Bush 14 years
George Romney 12 years.

What is there to hide?
Release the tax returns, Mr. Romney.

[ROTB]

I showed him tht he could do that & save considerable money.

The first year I worked for him, I saved him more money that the money he paid me as an outside contractor.

***

Wow. You must’ve been a real boon to that business. Did you get to see how his life changed?

[combat_boots]

Well, let's add spelling to the list, then. Second occurrence: Someone paid for that sign.

[sgtyork]

Hey look! An Obama troll!

[Lazamataz]

In spite of all the problems for Obama, he’s got at least 200 electoral votes locked up, from states such as California, New York, the New England states, Illinois, etc.

You know, there's something basically wrong about that.

Obama's performance should not net him ONE electoral vote.

[PA Engineer]

IBTZ!

[nascarnation]

My own sense is that the Obama internals are frightful

Here in Indiana, Baraq won very narrowly in 08. All the local polls show him -12 to -15 this year. They aren't even bothering to campaign, just private fundraisers to get $$ to spend other places.

[OwenKellogg]

You should start a blog!

[Little Bill]

I used to write speeches for a Black Union National Delegate, a mind game for me, I thought she was a nice kid.

I used to ask her how do you want it to sound and I would play the inflexion game, MLK, Black Baptist Preacher, Outraged Feminist, I had them all down. It was a hoot, she was preaching to the choir so I didn't care.

As a lilly white English, Scots Irish Consevitive it was a blast.

[PA Engineer]

Cleanup in aisle 27.

[exit82]

Wow, you joined today just to post a request for Mitt’s tax returns?

Tell your boss over at the DNC that we want to see Obama’s college records, and his original Social Security application, as well as the original, not photoshopped, long form birth certificate.

Tax returns are a red herring. If Romney hadn’t paid up, the IRS under little Timmy Geithner would have been after him.

now run along back to DU.

[PA Engineer]

Now that is funny. That is what scares me about “true believers” in politics.

[Milton Miteybad]

...”No one disputes President Obama’s charisma, personal charm and rhetorical skill”....

I dispute all three of those characteristics applied to Obama. I dispute them vehemently, angrily. He is none of those - he is a small, petty, angry, narcissistic fraud who has been shepherded through life via Affirmative Action preferences based on having 50% more melanin in his skin. A comparably skilled Caucasian man would never have reached such heights.

While I agree with your assessment, I think we should note that the first line above appears to be one of those throwaway platitudes designed to pre-empt the charge of bias on the part of the writer.

In other words, while the author did say it, there is no real reason to think that he himself actually believes it.

After all, the article would have been subject to being labeled a "hit piece" if the author had instead said, "Obama is a singularly unaccomplished and ill-informed individual with massive personality defects, who brings no discernible skill to the office of the Presidency other than the ability to read a TelePrompter passably."

That would have been more honest, of course, but it would have offended some sensibilities. ;-)