Who Were The Most Accurate Presidential Pollsters? (2008)

Political Vindication ^ | Nov. 5th, 2008 | Shane

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

A quick for most poll watcher and some series digging for the wonks and wonkettes to dig into.

Notice, they are only going on the last poll before the election. Anyone want to look at their trends (sampling, turnout and A, RV, LV, etc.) to see if any trends arise?

Here is one to think about; Obama beat McCain by 4.58% in Ohio(lately they have been oversampling RATS by 9pts in Ohio) look at the oversampling of RATS now? See a trend to create a "horse race" narrative so people think the MSM is relevant? I do!

[InterceptPoint]

Thanks for the work. Not surprised to see Raz at the top. A bit surprised to see Gallup almost at the bottom.

[Parley Baer]

I guess the PPP poll did not come along until later.

[spintreebob]

Media thinks a horse-race narrative brings audience share. If our side gives them enough distractions to report, they won’t have to make things up. When our side does stupid things do we deserve to win?

[wardaddy]

The polls were in the aggregate rather accurate as they usually are

Freepers hate polls unless they agree with them and then they are divine word

This is when i miss Chet99 even though as he knows...i own dangerous dogs including Pits

Few freepers know polling history like Chet and I

Modestly submitted

[NELSON111]

Not sure where this person is getting their data on CNN:

Obama has a lead in CNN's final poll.

(CNN) – Two and seven: With two days left until election day, a new national poll suggests that Barack Obama holds a seven-point lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey, released Sunday morning, 53 percent of likely voters say they are backing Obama, a Democratic senator from Illinois, for president, while 46 percent support McCain, a Republican senator from Arizona.

That is SPOT ON. It was 53-46 nationally. Ras had it 52-46....almost perfect...but not quite.

So technically, CNN was better than Rasmussen. Not sure where the researcher got the data that CNN was number eight when a simple google search turned up the truth.

[Baynative]

Remember when Zogsby published all sorts of polls predicting victory for his pal Bill Clinton and then Clinton won and people proclaimed him a genius?

Of course the thrill went away when he never got close on anything subsequent to his 15 minutes of fame.