CNN IS JUST MAKING UP POLL NUMBERS NOW

breitbart ^ | 10 Aug 2012 | MIKE FLYNN

[barmag25]

Okay, I'm not certain they are literally making up poll results, but the poll CNN and British market research firm ORC International released Thursday afternoon is so screwy and raises so many questions that they might as well be doing it intentionally. If CNN is already resorting to these kinds of tricks before the conventions have even started, it's going to be a very long campaign. First let me say, with less than three months to go in this campaign, can we please stop polling the political views of "adults", rather than "registered voters." We really should be moving soon to a "likely voter" screen, but I'll take "registered voters" for now. Knowing the political views of unregistered voters is worthless at the height of an election campaign and serves no real purpose but to give the Democrats an advantage. Nate Silver at the New York Times has estimated that polls of adults are biased towards Democrats by around 7 points.

[God luvs America]

thanks for the advice....granted if you don’t train you end up the obama of the decathlon...

[chaos_5]

Fox’s poll of registered voters with Obama +9 makes me nervous.

That is exactly what it’s supposed to do. Make you nervous so you tune in to hear the talking heads go on about what he’s going to do. Don’t trust any of the networks results, they only care about viewers and $$$

[mjp]

Aug. 8, 2012, 8:46 AM | Presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney has pulled ahead to a rather stunning 5-point lead over President Barack Obama in the swing state of Colorado, according to a new Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times poll.

CNN does at least test an Obama-Romney match-up among registered voters. It trumpets across its news page that, among registered voters, Obama is leading Romney 52-45

So Romney is winning in Colorado but losing nationally. Doesn’t make sense.

[lacrew]

Another day, another poll to disprove.

44% of respondents self identified as Democrat
35% of respondents self identified as Republican

I am shocked that a poll which oversamples Democrats by 9 points shows Obama winning by 9 points! Shocked I say.

In 2008, during the height of the Hopium movement, Democrats turnout led by 8%....so it looks a little extreme to oversample Democrats by 9%.

But lets look at 2010 mid terms. Rat - 15.4 million. GOP -19.2 million. Ok, now a 9% dem oversample is looking a little fishy.

Look deeper into 2010: Rat turnout was up in 12 states, down in 30 (with record lows in 13 states). Gop was up in 39 states and down in 7....and they had record turnouts in 12 states. alright, now its starting to look like any poll that oversamples Rats by 9% is just complete garbage.

Now look even deeper into the midterms...at the ‘swing’ states. Rats had record low turnout in Florida, New Mexico, and North Carolina. The GOP had a record turnout in Florida. All those polls that say Barry is winning Florida - throw them out, they are oversampling. And any talk that Barry wins New Mexico or North Carolina....only after an oversampled poll is taken.

[Sooth2222]

"So Romney is winning in Colorado but losing nationally. Doesn’t make sense."

No, but I'm not betting the farm on the the Quinnipiac Colorado poll, either. My guess is that it's closer there. Casual TV watchers often make the assumption that all "experts" are equal, and they all know what they're doing. Or at least have a clue. I beg to differ.

[InterceptPoint]

BTW, a lot of polls are based on the 2008 election. They take the % of democrats who voted back then, and the % of Republicans who voted back then, and use that same percentage for their polls. That’s why most of the polls are democrat heavy. In 2008, a lot of Republicans stayed home. All they had was McCain.

Today, people see Oboma is not the returned Messiah, but the pollsters still use the same 2008 % anyway.
+++++++++++++++++
Your post should be required reading for Freepers. If you don’t read it, Jim should pull your membership.

[LibertarianLiz]

I don't know, I'm with you about Rasmussen. He seems the only one who is actually polling for an accurate result. Everyone else (including FOX!) are over-sampling DEMs on their polls. Over at Sweetness & Light they show that the over-sample is exactly the difference between Zero and Romney.

So, what the h*** is going on over at Fox?

[LibertarianLiz]

Since Obama is running scared and burning through cash like a drunken sailor at happy hour while begging the guy next to him at the bar for more money I think I have a good idea what his internals are showing him.

Yes, and the fact that he is having to spend a lot of time in states that he won the last time because he is behind or dead even at the moment, adds to my speculation that (as you say) the internals must be very bad for him.

[sportutegrl]

Did you go oot and aboot August 1? Try to get a Chick Fil A, perhaps? How many of those CFA supporters do you think will vote for Mr. Supports Gay Marriage? Huh? That’s the poll I trust.

[Jim Noble]

I think it’s very reasonable to believe that Obama is ahead, maybe far ahead.

The People are enraptured by lies, just as Theoden was by Grima Wormtongue. The People believe in lots of free sh*t, equality of results as an appropriate government responsibility, no responsibility for the financial consequences of their sexual and gluttonous behaviors, that “single moms” are heroic figures who deserve tons of OPM, and lots of other things.

If YOU believe in those things, Obama is your guy.

[BlueStateRightist]

Facts that should make you feel good about Romney’s chances:

1. Rasmussen has him consistently ahead. Rasmussen is correct, and he knows it. At his web site he even confidently predicts after Labor Day when the polling outfits switch to “likely voters”, as he has done all along, the RealClearPolitics average will move towards a Romney lead.
2. Obama bumpers stickers are only appearing on early (before 2005) model Subaru’s and Volvo’s. In other words, only the crackpots still spout such nonsense. I’m in CT, a historically Blue State, and there are very few Obama bumper stickers out there.
3. Speaking of Connecticut: latest poll gives Obama a less than 10 point lead. Perhaps no point speaks louder.
4. Obama’s campaign spending and style suggests panic within. Pre-convention they are going for the Romney jugular in a multitude of ways. A confident campaign wouldn’t risk this approach.
5. Many liberals with whom I speak aren’t so game on talking politics lately.
6. 8.3% unemployment. And the real number is much worse than that.

[A'elian' nation]

“Most will probably not bother to vote. “

Personally, I hope all these slanted Stasi polls keep showing this idiot president in the lead. If his base thinks he is a shoo-in, all the less likely are the chances of them voting.

Of course, a week before the election these same pollsters will say it is too close to call practically begging the folks to vote for the Fascist.

[CedarDave]

Chicken little much? It is far from over. We haven’t even had the conventions yet. If the election were held today, I think Obama would lose.

Both conventions will be yawners. Romney and the GOP-e will not let any firebrands on stage to tell it like it really is. With a milquetoast candidate and advisers like spokeswoman Andrea Saul, Romney will constantly be on defense. And any that might bring the crowd to their feet will be speaking either at 2 p.m. or 2 a.m. As for me, I'm going to find a pre-season football game.

[Humbug]

BTW, a lot of polls are based on the 2008 election.

That raises the obvious question: why rely on 2008? They're pollsters after all. Can't they do a poll to estimate the turnout percentages for 2012 and go from there?

[tumblindice]

"ACME polling" ACME is to Wile E. Coyote what inductive polling research methods are to presidential elections. http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/dedind.php

[tenthirteen]

I used to work for a Member of Congress in the late 80’s. The election was coming up so we met with a pollster. The Congressman asked how he would set up the poll. The Pollster answered you tell me what results you want and we’ll do the rest. The only thing you have to do is pay the bill. Done. We got our poll, he, and I, kept our jobs.

[PA Engineer]

Fox News Poll is a strange one.

They deal with a new category of extremely interested. The internals are well hidden. The sampling is 44% Democrat, 35% Republican, 14% Independent/Other, and 6% Don’t Know/Refused.

The results can be found at Fox News poll: Presidential race, page 13 of 26.

I just don't know what to make of any of this poll. Voter registration has been declining for Democrats, slightly rising for Republicans, and increasing substantially for Independents. This has been reported here on FR. I don't know where they came up with the 44% Democrat sampling rate as representative of the national average. Further, they really decimated the Independent category in their sampling.

[concerned about politics]

So, what the h*** is going on over at Fox?

Probably just left wing activists on their polling list. "I'm a Republican, and I've voted for Republicans all my life, but because of their stand on ____(fill in the blank)___, I'm voting for Oboma!"
(Rush calls them "seminar callers", so I'm sure there are "seminar" respondents, too.)

The reason I think this is because FOX polls are always left leaning. They're never right. On top of that, they report every bogus poll they find. It a waste of viewers time. "It's the ratings, stupid."

[jocon307]

This is how I’m looking at it.

(Or trying to, because I’m pretty much on the verge of panic about the election. Adding to that I’m having a big outdoor party here tomorrow and it’s pouring rain and my kid for whom the party is will have to drive the 250 miles here in this rain, so what can I say? If my house were ever to catch on fire - do it now, because I’m in the right state of mind for it!)

But, I digress.

I hope the American people will not let the Democrats win via a path of ludicrous lies about Romney. I hope the American people are realizing that 4 more years of Obama, Reid and shadow Pelosi will not improve our collective lot at all and stand a good chance of making things far worse. I hope the American people are just going to quietly make up their minds that Obama had his chance, he failed, and he needs to go. Too bad he’s black and all that, but still - don’t let the door hit you in the butt on your way out.

I was on the Commentray website the other day and we discussed the Dinkins/Giuliani re-match. Another poster there reminded me that the race was very, very close. Dinkins was the first black mayor of NYC and although he may have been well-intentioned he was a miserable failure.

Even the NYC libs had to give him the gate, regretfully I’m sure.

I hope the same thing happens this election. But, and I know this is going to aggravate a lot of people here, the base is going to have to work for Romney, we are going to have to get those mushy-middlers to the polls to pull the lever “R”.

I myself intend to do this after labor day, my life has been crazy lately and I’m sorry I haven’t already started.

I don’t really care if a person has a deep hatred in their heart for Romney. Obama must not be re-elected, at the very best we’ll have 4 years of turmoil during his second, more flexible, term. Aside from that I think these politics of personal destruction and outright lies really need to be rejected.

[longtermmemmory]

I keep remembering how Fox News Dynamics (since renamed) had kerry up by five points just 3 days before the election.

I think this is all a counter to the chick fil a panic of the homosexuals at these newsrooms.