Posted on 07/24/2012 9:30:33 PM PDT by James C. Bennett
Since the end of WWII, America's naval might has been undisputed and our aircraft carriers have been its crown jewels. However, the days of dominance could end with China's new DF-21D ballistic missile—the only device on Earth capable of sinking an aircraft carrier—four and a half acres of sovereign US territory—with one shot.
VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi0d-eFiGN4&feature=player_embedded
The DF-21D (Dong-Feng 21 variant D) is the world's first and only anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). It's a two stage, land-launched missile with a maximum estimated range of 2,700 to 3,000 km. Its single fuel-air explosive warhead packs 200 to 500 kilotons. It was developed by China Changfeng Mechanics and Electronics Technology Academy as part of the country's massive military modernization effort, an initiative focused primarily on developing overwhelming missile technologies for which there are no effective defenses. The Defense Department believes it entered active service around 2009.
While the Chinese obviously aren't saying much on the inner workings of the new missile system, military experts believe it will rely on China's Over the Horizon radar (OTH) to monitor a 3,000-km swath of the South China Sea, where China is now claiming dominion over. The OTH system bounces its radar signal off the ionosphere to see past the curvature of the earth. If the OTH detects a carrier battle fleet, the system instigates a set of Yaogan satellites to search the area and provide precise targeting data. Additionally, when the OTH detects an approaching fleet, the system will reportedly launch a swarm of micro-satellites into low orbit where they will help refine the targeting data further and transmit it back to the onshore command center. Meanwhile, UAVs will be launched to track the fleet. Once the missile has been launched and separated from its first stage, the warhead employs synthetic aperture radar to find the carrier. It receives real time telemetry data as it locks onto its target and initiates its terminal descent.
This capability could be used to effectively deny US carriers from intervening in, say, the Taiwan Strait. It could also be used as a very large stick in resolving local territorial disputes. Many members of the security community also worry that the FAE warheads could easily be replaced with nuclear ones. If that occurred, it would very lead to an arms race with Japan and India (neither of whom are particularly fond of the Communist PRC). Or, it could dissolve the US-Russian INF Treaty, which prevents the two countries from from deploying short and intermediate range land-based ballistic and cruise missiles. [Strategy Page - Wired - Dept of Defense - SinoDefense - Weapon and Technology - Wikipedia]
Obviously, “Jane’s” refers to Fonda’s exercise video.
Sounds pretty far fetched to me. Based on my extensive experience of playing Harpoon on computer, the ONLY way I could take out a US carrier (as the Russians) was to launch absolutely EVERYTHING, and hope one of the nukes got through.
I doubt this system would be particularly effective.
Just like our nuclear response to North Korea, North Vietnam and Al-Qaeda. Oh, wait ever mind.
I am not certain that Aegis can defeat a DF-21. Aegis could be effective against tactical ballistic missiles, but the DF-21 is a long range device that would overfly Aegis’ radar fence. Taiwan is installing long range surveillance radar, equivalent to PAVE PAWS, to keep an eye on China, which would almost certainly detect the launch of a DF21, if not effectively jammed.
What really, truly puzzles me is how they think you can get 200 kT from a FAE with a payload much less than one ton?
I also wonder about the OTH radar part. In time of hostilites, nothing would be easier to jam or spoof than an OTH radar. If they are going to track the carriers by satellite, they better pray for clear skies.
When did North Korea/Vietnam/Al-Qaeda attack one of our carriers?
I wouldn't want to take bets on an Obama Administration response. It would likely be whatever was the worst option for the US.
Since a kiloton is 2 million pounds, this missile carries a half a billion pound warhead. It simply must land on the carrier, and sink it with its own weight.
the laser defense is tried, tested and fully operational... I read an article several years ago, they mounted one of these lasers on an M1 chassis... mounted it where the turret was, it looked like a huge searchlight on a tank.. anyway, 25 miles away they lit off a 155mm howitzer.... this thing tracked the projectile and shot it down IN FLIGHT... not once but 3 times in a row..
remember when north korea lit off it’s new ballistic missile and it self destructed? They immediately lit off a bunch of smaller ones that mysteriously self destructed also?
My guess is that our aircraft mounted laser system shot them down...
the aircraft carrier is obsolete, but so is the ballistic missile....
500 kilotons is a larger yield than the W-88, our second largest thermonuclear warhead in the active US arsenal.
Current Aegis class ships with SM3s have anti-ballistic missile capabilities. I think the DF-21 would be a piece of cake.
BS! That's the yield range of thermonuclear weapons.
Also, there are a lot of difficulties in gettng a fuel-air explosive to work properly. They are very sensitive to envirornmental variables. IOW’s you get a lot of fizzles.
Wiki Boeing YAL-1
Maybe. But the bigger problem is that the forces deploying such a weapon need to exercise and test fire the system at simulated targets -- a lot. That's the only way to take a theoretical capability and make it an operational weapons system that is taken seriously by your adversary. So unless the Chinese start live-fire exercises over the South China Sea demonstrating that they can 'hit' a simulated CVBG, this is all smoke.
All good points. Their economy will nothing left if they attack us. Logically that would be a deterrent; but as you said, human history has many examples of stupidity.
I think it would need to get a cue from another sensor. I doubt that it could autonomously acquire a DF21 post-boost phase.
Maybe, but there are awful lot of sensors in a CBG.
I think you'd get a quick answer. It would have something to do with Jane Fonda.
You two are thinking alike.
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