FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending July 21, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | July 21, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

Premier - July 4, 2012

In this edition of the guide, I am introducing new content and making some alterations to previous content and layout. I am interested in hearing your preferences regarding the Electoral College table.

Regarding the EV table and using the last report's data, previously I was grouping the states into fewer categories (Safe, Leaning, Toss-Up), where Toss-Up included all states within +/- 1%. This time, I added a Strong category to spread out the leans, and pushed the +/- 1% states into Lean (keeping Toss-Up for just tied polls).

The effect of this change is huge. Previously, Florida and Iowa were put into the Toss-Up category, making the deterministic race Obama 247 - Romney 234, and 57 EV up for grabs. With this change, Romney gets the votes for Florida and Iowa, as soft as they are, making the race Romney 269 - Obama 247, and only 22 EV up for grabs.

I'm going to keep the new groups, but let Toss-Up remain all states within +/- 1%, keeping the race at Obama 247 - Romney 234. There is too much probabilistic uncertainty to give these states to one candidate or the other.

I also added my color map of the United States. These maps will change as the poll results change. Eventually, I will add an animated GIF to show the poll progressions from week to week.

This Editions's Updates:

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Rasmussen has slowed down his key-state polling, so there has been little movement in the past month -- until this week. At this point, my deterministic analysis of Rasmussen's polls has the race at Obama 265 and Romney at 216, with 57 Electoral Votes up for grabs.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, which have moved the race in Obama's direction.

In Florida, the poll result was the same as the previous poll, leaving the race at +1% for Romney. Florida is still a toss-up.

In Ohio, Romney lost 1% from the early June poll, while Obama gained 3%, netting +2% for Obama and moving Ohio from Leans Romney to Leans Obama. Losing Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes hurts.

In Pennsylvania, the news is slightly better, although not consequential. While Obama is still leading, Romney gained 3% from the late May poll while Obama gained 1%. Romney reduced the gap from -6% to -4%. Pennsylvania remains in the Strong Obama column, but is trending towards Lean.

In Virginia, we see another Romney slip. Obama polled the same as in early June but Romney lost 1%, going from a tie to -1%. Virginia is still a Toss-up.

Watch List:

• Colorado: No Poll (R +0%)
• Florida: +0% (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%) - not polled yet, 2008 result
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: No Poll (R +1%)
• Michigan: No Poll (R -8%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +5%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• New Hampshire: No Poll (R -5%)
• North Carolina: No Poll (R +3%)
• North Dakota: -2.2% (R +13%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Ohio: -1% (R -2%)
• Pennsylvania: +3% (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• Virginia: -1% (R -1%)
• Wisconsin: No Poll (R +3%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 265								Romney - 216
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	18	Ohio	9	Colorado	15	North Carolina	16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	New Hampshire			29	Florida	10	Wisconsin	11	Indiana	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	20	Pennsylvania			6	Iowa					11	Arizona
3	Delaware					13	Virginia					6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii											4	Idaho
20	Illinois											6	Kansas
4	Maine											8	Kentucky
10	Maryland											8	Louisiana
11	Massachusetts											6	Mississippi
10	Minnesota											10	Missouri
14	New Jersey											3	Montana
5	New Mexico											5	Nebraska
6	Nevada											3	North Dakota
29	New York											7	Oklahoma
7	Oregon											9	South Carolina
4	Rhode Island											3	South Dakota
3	Vermont											11	Tennessee
12	Washington											38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
207		40		18		57		25		27		164

2008 Final Results

Current State Leanings

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%

State Details

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has polled Florida twice so far, getting the same result of Romney ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. Another poll would be useful to see what direction Michigan is trending.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.

Montana (3 EV)

Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.

In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.

Nevada (6 EV)

Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. It is still strongly in Obama's camp, with an early poll showing the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is at the edges of the margin of error, making it almost a certainty that it will vote for Obama again, unless a new poll suggests otherwise.

Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.

in 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.

North Carolina (15 EV)

North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. The latest poll in June has the race closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%.

In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Ohio (18 EV)

Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama. This week's poll has Romney slipping and Obama gaining, flipping the lead to Obama 47%-45%.

Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead. This week's poll show Obama gaining back 1%, but Romney gained 3%, netting an additional 2% loss for Obama.

In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.

Virginia (13 EV)

Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far. This week's poll gained nothing for Obama, but Romney lost 1% from early June.

A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll now shows Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama.

In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.

And in the Senate...

Things are finally moving in the expected direction with the potential pick-up of two more seats. The Republican lead is solidifying, and chances of taking control are almost assured.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Florida, Connie Mack completely turned around an early May poll against Bill Nelson, reversing 36%-47% loss into a 46%-37% lead. The race is still beyond the margin of error, but now the other way.

In North Dakota, we see another beyond-the-margin-of-error flip-flop. The 2006 Senate race went for the Democrat 68.8% to 29.5%. The current race has Republican Rick Berg leading Democrat Heidi Heitkamp by 49% to 40%.

In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown picked up an additional 1% over Republican Josh Mandel, likely keeping the seat for Democrats.

In Virginia, Republican George Allen gained an additional 1% over his early June result, while Democrat Tim Kaine remained at his prior result, making this race a toss-up at Kaine 46% to Allen's 45%.

Watch List:

• Indiana 2: No Poll (R +0%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• Ohio 1: -1% (R -6%)
• Pennsylvania 1: No Poll (R -7%)
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: +1% (R -1%)

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

If you would like to be on/off Political Junkie’s Ping List, please freepmail randita. Thanks.

[Political Junkie Too]

Ping.

-PJ

[KansasGirl]

So, Obama is on his way to re-election. Pitiful. I just can’t believe Americans would re-elect this guy.

[Political Junkie Too]

Reposting the same nonense from the last time...

Whatsamatter?

After 11 years, I'm still not worthy of some kind of sidebar recognition?

Do you find MSM articles more factual or worthy of FR eyes than what I just wrote?

Whom do YOU want to win the election? How are you working to motivate the people?

Something tells me that this is going to be a regular post to you's guys.

If Brian Ross wrote it, would you allow it?

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

The expectation is that this is a baseline assessment, and that the polls will begin to move after the Olympics and people start paying attention.

However, when you look at the states that Obama has locked in, Romney has to pretty much "run the table" to win.

Ohio moving towards Obama was a big blow. There is still time for Romney to take it back. Moving Florida from Toss-Up to Romney will help, too. Same with Virginia.

But it is scary when you compare the Electoral College view with the national poll view.

-PJ

[RobinOfKingston]

PJ —

Please add me to your ping list.

As you not in your Post #4 there is more than enough bias to go around.

Robin

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/20/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Let's roll!

 

7/20/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold/Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)		HOLD
MO	Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#)	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
WI*	Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)		GAIN
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#)	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Primary 8/7/12	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)		GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
WA	Primary 8/7/12	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[Repeal 16-17]

The expectation is that this is a baseline assessment, and that the polls will begin to move after the Olympics and people start paying attention.

Precisely. Most people are not paying attention. We're three-and-a-half months from Election Day. For most people that might as well be three-and-a-half years.

[Road Glide]

“So, Obama is on his way to re-election. Pitiful. I just can’t believe Americans would re-elect this guy.”

Romney has a small chance to win, but if he does, he will win with the thinnest of margins, especially in the electoral college. I predict 270-268 for Romney with a possibility that one Congressional district in either Maine or Nebraska will “split” (those are the two states that assign electoral votes by individual districts), giving Obama one additional vote and thus throwing the election into the House.

Then again, the good showing by Sherrod Brown in Ohio along with Obama’s strength there indicates that Ohio is going to be a very difficult win for Romney — and without Ohio, Romney loses.

You are overlooking something in your statement above that is going to become all-too-obvious by November. That is, America is no longer a “single, unified” nation, but instead has become “divided”; and the trend is toward even more division in the future. The divisions are so fundamental and wide that reconciliation no longer seems possible — hence the perception (on BOTH sides) that one side believes that what the other is doing is incomprehensible....

[1010RD]

The other scary thing is that Americans like a split government. So if we hold the House and win the Senate the chances of Obama being President again will rise.

[Political Junkie Too]

In Europe, they called that "Balkanization."

So far, we've been able to avoid that here.

So far.

-PJ

[rbbeachkid]

I thought that California passed a law that said that their EV votes went to the candidate with the most national votes.

Is that incorrect?

[RightLady]

I was hoping to get cheered up on my way to bed. Guess I’ll have to hit the hay depressed :(

[RightLady]

I was hoping to get cheered up on my way to bed. Guess I’ll have to hit the hay depressed :(

[Political Junkie Too]

Nothing goes into effect until states with 270 electoral votes join the compact, which they haven't. Then, Congress has to approve the interstate Compact.

-PJ

[beenaround]

I guess all this minutae is fun but to change a prediction based on a 1% move seems a bit much given polls are nothing but snapshots of the exact moment the person is asked the question and could hve changed in the next hour because of a story they heard or read about one candidate or the other.

[rbbeachkid]

Thanks

[Political Junkie Too]

It's not just a 1% move, it's the probability associated with that move. Candidates within 1% of each other are a toss-up. A 1% move from +1% to +2% will change the race from toss-up to lean because the probability of winning jumps significantly.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

One more thing, that's the reason I'm limiting myself to Rasmussen polls, because of his track record. I'll let Rasmussen decide the validity of his sample and results, while I simply analyze the findings.

-PJ

[beenaround]

a move of 1% is significant if viewed in terms of a % . IOW if a candidate was leading by 1 point anf the lead increased to 2 points that is a 100% improvement. However if the original numbers were 46-45 or 47-46 and they change 1 point the final results are still within the m.o.e. and may be attributable to “statitical noise”.

I have noticed Rasmussen occasionally, after sighting a candidate jumping to a 3-4 0r more point lead, will caution the difference may be to what he refers to as the statistical noise referred to above.

Rasmussen is good bought at this point in the election it isto early to put a lot of weight even in his numbers since I believe so many are yet to get engaged and there is a lot of time for minds to change despite the current very small number of people who say they are as yet undecided.