[beenaround]

I guess all this minutae is fun but to change a prediction based on a 1% move seems a bit much given polls are nothing but snapshots of the exact moment the person is asked the question and could hve changed in the next hour because of a story they heard or read about one candidate or the other.

[Political Junkie Too]

It's not just a 1% move, it's the probability associated with that move. Candidates within 1% of each other are a toss-up. A 1% move from +1% to +2% will change the race from toss-up to lean because the probability of winning jumps significantly.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

One more thing, that's the reason I'm limiting myself to Rasmussen polls, because of his track record. I'll let Rasmussen decide the validity of his sample and results, while I simply analyze the findings.

-PJ