Posted on 07/17/2012 10:22:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Today's Word of the Day? Stasis:
In the battle for the White House, President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a close contest nationally. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, 48% of U.S. registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate support President Obama compared with 46% for Romney. Less than one percent backs another candidate, and 6% are undecided.
“The race was close yesterday, it’s close today, and may even be close on Election Day,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “You need to look no farther than the president’s approval rating to see how divided the electorate is.”
On the whole, this is not good news for Barack Obama. The previous Marist/McClatchy national poll was in March --- and that also showed a two-point lead for Obama over Romney, 46/44. Since that time, Marist has focused on swing-state polling --- which also showed dead heats in June. Obama and his allies have flooded the media zone with hard-hitting ads, and the best that one can say about their effect is that Obama isn’t losing ground. Romney has yet to unleash a big attack on the airwaves, but those days will come soon, especially with the way Romney is raising funds.
This is the same survey from Saturday’s release on the tax cut issue, so the same sample issues apply. The skew is D+7 with a D/R/I of 36/29/34 among registered voters, which means this leans a little toward Obama. That can be seen in the breakout of independents, which favor Romney by four, 48/44. In 2008, when the electorate really did have a D+7 skew, Obama won by seven points and carried independents by eight. Losing independents would mean that Obama would have to get a base turnout that exceeded the 2008 model, which seems extremely unlikely.
This race is not moving at all in any direction at the moment. The stasis helps the challenger in providing time to gather his financial strength. The attacks on character don’t seem to be having any real impact at all on the polling, which means that the election will almost certainly be decided on policy and as a referendum on the incumbent — and that’s definitely bad news for Obama.
Rasmussen has Romney at 47, Obama at 44. What is the sample Marist uses?
Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.
If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.
Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.
Still the difference is only 2-3%?
Registered voters = Invalid Poll of Dem friendly organization to counter Ras.
Still the difference is only 2-3%?
Registered voters favors Dems. Likely voters (a smaller, more dependable sample) favors Republicans. I’m noticing a lot of the latest polls boosting Obama are of registered voters.
No doubt Romney’s upcoming choice of the dynamic Tim Pawlenty as his running mate will turn the tide.
democRAT 36%
GOP 29%
Ind 34%
other 1%
Typical under sampling of the GOP and over sampling of RATs
Romney is running a terrible campaign so far. Shockeningly boring and uninspiring.
Pollaganda...
“The skew is D+7 with a D/R/I of 36/29/34 among registered voters”
This RV poll is skewed at least 5 points towards Dems vs who will show up in Nov, it RV not LV poll ... so ... in reality, Obama is down by 3.
These numbers are not good for our first Bolshevik-American president.
Bolshevik yes, American no.
Romney is holding his fire for the most part. Raising tons of dough and letting the desperate Obama team use up their ammo. Believe me Romney will hit and hit hard. Time is on his side.
Hey they for got the “X” in Marist!!!
S/B - MARXIST!
Well without looking at anything else, it uses “REGISTERED” vs likely, that alone tells you its going to be inaccurate, and almost always by many points to the Dem.
Can’t speak to the rest of hte methodology.
You didn’t see his speech today in Pittsburgh. He was on fire!
Incumbent Rule + Acceptable Challenger = 6% break 80% Romney = 2008 + IN, NC, FL, VA, OH, NV o/r IA = 271EV = It's over.
Mr. Fix-it or Mr. Broke-it?
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/07/mr_fix-it_or_mr_broke-it.html
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