[bigbob]

“registered voters”

[Westbrook]

The fawning media coverage that Obama gets is worth at least 10 points.

[Former Proud Canadian]

Throw this poll away. 20% of those polled aren't even registered to vote. They have so little interest they can't even be bothered to register. Their opinions don't count and, I'm sure, are weighed heavily towards the regime.

Of the remaining 80%, how many are likely to vote?

[EyeGuy]

What’s an “independent”?

What does it stand for?

How does one get its vote?

[KarlInOhio]

The samples were weighted to account for demographic composition,

Romney wins slightly among independents with each candidate has about 90% support among their own party. To get to the 50-43 Obama lead that means Pew must have assumed a huge (and unwarranted after the 2010 election) lead in the number of Democrats. Garbage in, garbage out.

[FlingWingFlyer]

It’s not called the “Pew” poll for nothing. It’s worthless. However, it does provide jobs for a lot of people.

[nhwingut]

Sample: D+9.

[tsowellfan]

I think if this were a poll for Obama vs “un-named candidate” Obama would be losing.

[Gay State Conservative]

Registered voters.Now lets find out just who they polled.Was it 51% Rat,22% Republican?

[Lazamataz]

THIS HEADLINE MADE ME LAUGH SO HARD, *LITERALLY LAUGH* THAT MY COWORKERS CAME AROUND TO SEE WHAT WAS SO FUNNY!!!! OMG WTF LOL.....

[Perdogg]

This was talked about and analyzed yesterday at great lengths. The sample size, included about 7 percent more democrats than republicans and included a large number of “adults”. Sorry, just more propaganda.

[nhwingut]

Comment over at NRO with title: Why Are So Many Pollsters Oversampling Democrats?

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/309347/why-are-so-many-pollsters-oversampling-democrats#comment-bar

I have a MS in Computer Science, majoring in Quantitative Mathematics/Statistics. So my side hobby is sort of re-engineering these oversampled polls to the proper party id.

The party id split in 2008 was D+7. While the diff in 2010 was essentially tie.

My program I use just about splits the difference (D+3) to be conservative (even though I think that the R turnout will be higher).

Based on my analysis using a sample of D 36 R 33 I 31 across all national polls over the past 3 months (using RCP list which provides internals/crosstabs), Romney is leading 48.6 - 44.2 (Romney +4.2)

If you use a 34|34|32 sample, you would get Romney leading 49.8 - 43.4 (Romney +5.4)

[Notary Sojac]

The “No Romney, No Way” crowd at FR should be rejoicing in this news.

[Lazamataz]

You really have to dig to get to the internals these days.

But with persistence, I got:

So, we have the weighting being: Rep: 28%, Dem: 35%, Ind: 32%

7 point lead for Dems right out of the box.

They are trying to hide it, of course, by burying the internals. I expect at some point they will simply do away with showing the internals, outright.

[Little Ray]

1. “Registered Voters.”
That alone invalidates the poll. I think around half of “Registered Voters” actually vote.

2. The only states that matter are the “battle ground” states, like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, etc. The rest of the states are pretty much decided. A 100% for Obama in California, Massachusetts, or New York, does not matter - there was no chance those states were going for the ‘Pubbie any way.

[jimfree]

Win the future??!???

[Raycpa]

Obama is favored by 88 percent of Democrats while 89 percent of Republicans favor Romney, who leads among independent voters 46 percent to 45 percent for Obama.

This means that the Republicans plus the independents are fewer in number than the Democrats.

[Nifster]

The P-—you poll....also skewed left in respondents and questions

[bkepley]

Polls are all over the place right now which suggests to me that they are pretty worthless. Once they start to converge we’ll have to pay attention. Except for one outlier the polls were dead on with the final results in Wisconsin.

[pabianice]

... internals show that Obama wins 50-43 among Dem welfare bums reached on their couches during the day..." LOL!