Posted on 07/07/2012 7:25:43 AM PDT by Kevmo
Journal of Petroleum Technology — July 2012
Guest Editorial • On the Precipice Of a New Energy Source? Steve Jacobs, COO, and Patrick Leach, CEO, Decision Strategies, and David J. Nagel, CEO, NUCAT Energy
Steve Jacobs is chief operating officer of Decision Strategies and has more than 30 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. His specialty is evaluating market opportunities for new and existing technologies and companies. He earned BS degrees in psychology and education from Oklahoma State University. Jacobs is an energy information ambassador for SPE. He moderates and lectures at numerous events around the world.
Patrick Leach is chief executive officer of Decision Strategies. He is a recognized expert in risk management and decision making in the face of uncertainty, and has published and presented numerous papers on these subjects. He is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number, an executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and make better decisions. Leach earned a BS degree in geomechanics from the University of Rochester and an MBA degree from the University of Houston.
David J. Nagel is chief executive officer of NUCAT Energy.Previously, he was a member of the senior executive service and leader of the physics division at the US Naval Research Laboratory, where he managed experimental and theoretical research and development efforts. He has also been a research professor in the department of electrical and computer engineering at George Washington University with a focus on low energy nuclear reactions. He received a BS degree in engineering science, an MS degree in physics, and a PhD in materials engineering.
In the late 1850s, the whaling industry was in a veritable boom in the town of Lahaina on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Business was great, and many in the whaling industry believed that increased demand would continue for decades to come. But in 1859, oil was discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania with a well drilled by Edwin Drake. The rest is history.
That was 150 years ago. A small but increasing number of people around the world believe we are on a similar course, except this time it is the petroleum industry that might be threatened. As with any emerging technology, critical challenges must be overcome and a significant effort lies ahead to convince a world of skeptics that a new source of energy has been discovered and will be important.
The potential new source of energy is low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR). With any discussion of a new technology, caution is advised. The world of LENR is filled with mystery, contradiction, gross speculation, misinformation, slippery timelines, and skepticism that sometimes spill over into outright denial. Healthy skepticism on LENR (or any new technology) is a good thing, but so is an open mind. If LENR is for real—and many well-qualified physicists believe it is—it will not only change the petroleum industry, but also significantly affect almost every aspect of our world. Some call it "the new fire."
In 1989 at the University of Utah, Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann announced they had discovered a cold fusion process that would ultimately result in cheap, limitless energy. The outcome from these cold fusion efforts became widely known and well documented, primarily because other researchers were unable to replicate the results from the initial experiments. Cold fusion was (and is) viewed as impossible by many in the scientific community. Although the research did not cease, it was largely ignored.For the past 20-plus years, a small number of scientists have been diligently working on what could eventually become a hugely disruptive technology.
According to New Energy Times, "LENRs are weak interactions and neutroncapture processes that occur in nanometer-to-micron-scale regions on surfaces in condensed matter at room temperature. Although nuclear, LENRs are not based on fission or any kind of fusion, both of which primarily involve the strong interaction. LENRs produce energetic nuclear reactions and elemental transmutations, but do so without strong prompt radiation or long-lived radioactive waste." ("Strong interaction" and "weak interaction" refer to the strong nuclear force and the weak nuclear force, which-along with electromagnetic force and gravity-make up the four basic forces in nature.)
The Basic Process
There are several versions of LENR being developed using different reactants and processes. The basic process of LENR is not well understood, but some experts have stated that it works as follows: Nano-sized particles of nickel, pressurized hydrogen, and a catalyst are heated in a small reactor to the point at which weak interactions between the reactants cause transmutation (i.e., some of the nickel is converted to copper). Considerable excess heat is emitted during this process. Once the reaction becomes self-sustaining, the input power can be reduced significantly and excess heat (up to 650°C) is generated in the range of five to 30 times the input energy. This can be used to create steam, which can then be used for heating and/or generating electricity. The reactants are inexpensive and ubiquitous; during operation, the system emits no greenhouse gases; when turned off, there is no radioactivity; and the unit will allegedly generate electricity for a few cents per kilowatt hour. Now that is a disruptive technology.
According to one researcher, the amount of energy released from 1 gram of nickel would be equivalent to about one barrel of oil. Heat (in the form of steam) and electricity will be the main products. In addition to residential usage, plans exist for commercial and industrial heating/electrical systems. An attractive application is the production of clean water, including desalination systems. Eventually, LENR technology could be used in transportation (e.g., vehicles, aircraft, and ships).
No doubt the skeptics—and even some of the open-minded—reading this article are now cringing. But current LENR efforts are not dependent upon the outcome of just one development effort; there are a number of LENR programs under way in Europe and the United States. Universities and government agencies involved include Stanford University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NASA, and the University of Illinois, and several private companies in Greece, Italy, and the US are also developing LENR technologies. Positive results and improved performance have been reported by the research teams, with at least four companies stating that they are in the early stages of commercial development. A small number of LENR unit manufacturing plants are reportedly being built in Europe and the US, and at least two companies have said they will begin marketing their systems later this year. If this is a hoax, it is a remarkably widespread one, involving organizations of high integrity with no obvious motivation to fool the public and quite a lot to lose in terms of reputation.
But even if a hoax is ruled out, other challenges exist, including accepted scientific explanations of LENR, better refinement of control systems, reliable operations, and a distribution/service infrastructure to maintain LENR units that would presumably be located in every business and neighborhood. There is also the nontrivial issue of full-cycle net energy gain (the LENR process may be energy positive once running, but hydrogen is a key ingredient in LENR; there are no earthly sources of free hydrogen, and it takes energy to separate it from the oxygen atom in water). There will also be regulatory issues and intellectual property challenges that may slow the pace of market penetration in the coming years.However, if this technology is for real, the value proposition for LENR will be incredible.
The best known LENR effort currently under way is by Italian Andrea Rossi and his energy catalyzer. He has developed a LENR system that reportedly is ready for commercialization. Although Rossi has had to change a number of delivery dates for his "E-Cat," he appears to be making progress. He stated in mid-April: "We have already made all the engineering of the production line in the two factories we will set up (one in the US, one in Europe) … I think that it will take from 6 to 12 months after the certifications will be done to start the production."
The Impact
If proven to work, what impact would LENR have on the petroleum industry? It is difficult to say for certain, but it would undoubtedly be significant. The vast preponderance of oil is used for transportation and heating (Fig. 1), which would now be competing with LENR. While there still would be a need for petrochemicals and other applications, collectively these end uses represent less than about 20% of each barrel. Natural gas would not fare much better; its main applications are heating and electricity. If LENR works, the impact on the petroleum industry, power generation, and coal industry would be enormous. Even wind farms and other emerging alternative energy technologies could not compete economically with LENR.
So what can be done to prepare for LENR? First, watch it closely and do not let skepticism blind you. When the Wright Brothers flew their first plane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the scientific community reportedly argued for years after the fact over whether a heavier-than-air craft could actually fly. Even the most obvious evidence was not enough to make some people abandon their preconceived notions of what was possible. Drake had to battle similar skepticism when he drilled the first oil well; many people in Pennsylvania called it "Drake's Folly."
It is also important to evaluate the specific impact that LENR would have on an individual company. How well positioned is your company to weather such a disruptive storm, or to capitalize on these potential opportunities? If LENR becomes a reality, you do not want to fly blindly into the side of a mountain. Investigate creative ways for your company to participate in the LENR market.While this new technology will be disruptive to a number of industries, there will also be business opportunities in the manufacturing, installation, and servicing of LENR systems in multiple applications and sizes around the globe. Millions of LENR units of varying sizes will be required because of the distributed nature of this energy technology.
There is a probability that LENR may never emerge as a reliable, new energy source. If not LENR, then what? Eventually, some other technology is bound to come along with a much superior value proposition than hydrocarbons.It is not a matter of if, but when, this will happen. There was nothing the whaling industry could do to halt its pending decline, and the same will be true when a new technology makes our current approaches to energy generation obsolete. It is vital for a company to have a strategy development process that recognizes and characterizes uncertainty, and deals with complexity appropriately, including potential game changers such as LENR. Such an approach places companies in a stronger position to mitigate risk and capture opportunities as our complex, unpredictable, and surprising future unfolds.
No replies...
***What’s the problem? No one complained about no replies. I have to make a living, unlike guys like you with your thumb up your rear end.
Don’t assault kevmo with facts.
***Lay down all the facts you want, Texboy. You’ve never been good at it so far, I doubt you’ll be worth it now.
He will either hide
***Again I say, WTF? What’s the problem? I got a living to make. What is your freeping problem?
and remain unresponsive or he will start squawking something about seagulls...
***I dare you to find any seagull accusation coming from me in the last 3 months. Go on. I dare you. Now, what happens is crickets, because you CANNOT produce evidence. Of course, that doesn’t stop you from being a complete and total anti-LENR trolljerk.
The usual treatment. “My so-called friends did all this debunking somewhere, some time, somehow, so I get to display all kinds of ignorance of the facts on the ground.”
Why is it that the anti-LENR crowd is so ridiculous in their argumentation?
Because anyone who is sane appears ridiculous to you.
http://lenr-canr.org/index/menu/menu.php
Of course, you guys NEVer do that, because you cannot. But it doesn’t stop you from throwing darts like a bunch of wussy chimps.
Of course, you never do anything but copy and paste links to personal websites, copy and paste mountains of crap from Ecat blogs, and appeal to quantity rather than quality.
This is the normal reaction to new developments.
The usual progression: First, denial and ridicule, then seeking their own research grants, then taking credit for discovering the new phenomenon...
Established academics frequently do not like their understanding of the order of the universe disrupted by earth-shaking developments.
Hey! It worked like a charm with that Anthropogenic Global Warming thingy until the politicians went ape...
Perhaps not, but there is one heck of a lot of NIMBY to overcome if that paradigm will change.
Everyone wants cheap electricity and gasoline, but no one wants to live near the power plant or the refinery (unless they work there).
Kindly add me to your ping list. If this works, it will be a game-changer.
Voodoo Science.
Typical response. Wrong-headed, but typical. I find it "very interesting" that NONE of you so-called professional scientists and "science managers" who denigrate LENR is ever actually willing to take an honest look at the data.
Look at Storms book. It is intended as a college-level text on the subject, and is THOROUGHLY referenced. If you're too tight to spend the hundred bucks or so at Amazon, go to your local library....there is this thing called "interlibrary loan" which will borrow it for you from another library (assuming they don't have it "on-shelf") for the cost of postage and maybe a slight handling fee (back in Louisiana, it was just postage....here in "the great Northwest" of Washington State, they want postage plus five bucks).
If you're too tight (and too prejudiced) to do even that, then there is a shorter/smaller version free on-line ("A Student's Guide to Cold Fusion"). Still very thoroughly documented/referenced.
Perhaps I should have included the previous sentence in the quote;
” If LENR works, the impact on the petroleum industry, power generation, and coal industry would be enormous. Even wind farms and other emerging alternative energy technologies could not compete economically with LENR.”
The implication is that freakin’ wind farms already “compete economically” with coal and oil/gas, which, of course, they do not! I’m hoping that LENR turns out to work, I just felt that that statement was rather odd.
It would be nice if LENR would work, but the probability of that, like immediate world peace, is low.
Its just a play on the usage of percentages and "probability" that generally adds no information but is often used to enhance or denigrate a possibility as the author sees fit, to which I object.
Take the statement: "Only a fraction of Catholics believe Jesus actually walked the Earth and is the son of God".
That fraction may be 99999999999.999999% but it is still a fraction. All you need to make that statement true is to find one baptized Catholic that objects to that view.
Similarly, the "probability" of any event occurring is somewhere between 0% and 100%.
By only stating that there is a "probability" of some occurrence is a useless waste of words except to the extent its used to advance one's agenda or to hamstring another's which I view as dishonest in that a positive or negative impression is presented based on no actual information.
Long ago I was interested in the reports of hot and cold fusion, I'm all for breakthroughs in LENR or any efficient source of energy creation especially as my lowest monthly home electric bills (in the spring and fall) are above $300 and let's not even discuss my 12mpg SUV expenses. ;-)
In the instant case, knowing you follow this issue closely, I hoped that you would have some actual information on Rossi's actual progress or lack thereof and answer my question while pointing out the "probability" issue. ;-)
1 oz. = 28 gm. or equal to appx. 1000 gal. of gasoline.
Look at Storms book. It is intended as a college-level text on the subject,
Do any colleges use it?
I didn't think so.
Oops! Dang pesky decimal point! Make that 99.999999999999999%.
Sorry, again. ;-)
especially as my lowest monthly home electric bills (in the spring and fall) are above $300 and let’s not even discuss my 12mpg SUV expenses. ;-)
***In the SF Bay area, PV solar panels pay for themselves at less than $200/month electric bills.
In the instant case, knowing you follow this issue closely, I hoped that you would have some actual information on Rossi’s actual progress or lack thereof and answer my question while pointing out the “probability” issue. ;-)
***I no longer post “Rossi says...” type of articles, not because I’m disinterested, but because they attract so many seagulls. The latest “Rossi says” item is that he has more than ten units operating at 600 degreesC for several weeks at a time. Anyone looking to start an electricity generation plant will know the significance of such a claim. But, of course, it’s a “Rossi says” thing, and he’s been known to bend the truth, so at best it’s a wait&see situation.
There are lots of peer-reviewed papers in all fields that are cr*p
***Just like the crap that continues to flow from the hot fusion boys, who feed at the public trough rather than private funding. If we had spent 5% of that wasted hot fusion cash on LENR, we’d have LENR-powered VTOL jet packs by now.
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