CNN poll of battleground states: Romney 51, Obama 43

Hotair ^ | 07/02/2012 | AllahPundit

[SeekAndFind]

A rare case in which a news outlet actually tries to undermine its own poll by pointing out problems in its methodology. Is that because it's terrible for the Unicorn Prince or because, to be fair, it's hard to draw any conclusions from numbers these vague?

I'm not putting any stock in it but let's blog it anyway. After last week's SCOTUS groin-punch, we need something to be happy about.

About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states,' the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."

The survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Note to Holland: If Romney’s lead across swing states is approaching double digits then I’m pretty sure he’s not sweating over Obama’s “home turf,” especially since polls of registered voters tend to underestimate actual Republican strength on election day. So what’s driving the alleged big Romney wave? Must be a backlash to the Supreme Court ruling, no? No, actually: O still leads Romney by three overall (within the margin of error), same as he did last month. The only difference detected by CNN is a sudden spike in Democratic enthusiasm buoyed by their big Court win. The public’s short attention span will solve that problem in due time.

Gallup’s not seeing any “John Roberts bounce” for The One either. But:

The O-Care decision was announced between those two spikes at the far right of the graph so O’s recent surge obviously wasn’t due to the Court ruling. Maybe it was driven by a surge of Democratic and Latino enthusiasm after he announced his new DREAM policy? In that case, you’d expect to see his job approval rise too but there’s only been a slight bump lately and he’s actually underwater at the moment. Seems like his recent lead over Mitt might be more of an anti-Romney than a pro-Obama thing, although why that would be, I can’t imagine. Let’s chalk it up to statistical noise, hm? Even if it is his biggest lead in two months.

Exit question: How do you reconcile Romney’s eight-point swing state lead here with Obama’s eight-point swing state lead in NBC’s poll last week? Hint: Small sample sizes!

[EGPWS]

I can't comprehend 0bama leaving the White house without a Mount Carmel moment forcing him out.

[CaptainK]

When a poll doesn’t provide a link to view the internals, I skip right over it.

[GeorgeWashingtonsGhost]

If Obama leaves, the White House' contents will be ripped off like never seen before. Linclon's bed will be reduced to bed spings. Valuable portraits will be stolen and sold on the black market (racist pun not intended).

More likely, 0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order. He's already set precedence for unlawfully using executive orders. If he can wage war on Libya without approval from Congress or unilaterally overturn federal immigration laws, he can do anything. He's a 'one man' show. I think that's called 'Dictator'.

[Norman Bates]

Your post also shows the Gallup daily tracking poll with Obama up by 5%. Rasmussen has Romney up by 2%. So there is a lot of variability lately. However, I don’t buy that Romney is up 8% in swing states.

Interesting that Gallup has Obama at 46/47 approve-disapprove but polling at 48%.

[Williams]

It is an understatement to say these polls and comments in the article about the polls, make no sense.

Obama leads but is behind in “swing states” by 15 points??

[nhwingut]

CNN swing states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri are not normally polled as swing states (solid red). This may up Romney’s numbers.

However, polling PA, and NM do inflate Obama’s numbers too - as Romney has no chance.

The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.

[Theodore R.]

Rupert Murdoch just demanded that Romney fire his current team and hire a new, aggressive one if he wants to win. Sitting on an imaginary lead fails.

[Leep]

Team Obama is not beyond pulling Reichstag including a stirring speech afterwards.

[Theodore R.]

Sure, many Obama voters really may not want to vote for him, but he is their party nominee to be.

[Theodore R.]

You may not understand the depth of support Obama has even if it is under 48 percent. Many truly believe in such nonsense.

[Leep]

Otherwise,obama the underdog?
Next poll obama will advance 4-6%.
In reality he will have not moved at all.

Kind of the same trick they play with the unemployment numbers.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks SeekAndFind.

• Obama Holds Strong Cards [How the Man-Child is Hanging In The Race]
• Obama In 2009: Promises No Obamacare Tax; Middle Class Will Not 'Be Forced To Pay For This'
• Here's How Much The Obamacare Penalty Tax Will Cost You...
• Reluctance in Some States Over Medicaid Expansion
• Scott says Florida won't implement health care law [Govs Walker, Perry and Jindal concur)
• 8,733,461: Workers on Federal 'Disability' Exceed Population of New York City
• Recession now more likely
• Could New Hampshire decide the election?
• Obama Turns His Back on Israel at the U.N.

[Retired Greyhound]

0bama will declare Martial Law and cancel the election via executive order.

And the media would defend it and accuse those who disagree of racism.

There is nothing, no act or scandal, that Obama could not get away with.

He could be caught with BOTH the proverbial dead girl and live boy, and still the media would cover it up for him.

[morphing libertarian]

and the supremes will uphold his action 5-4

[DAC21]

If the economy stays in the tank (likely) and Romney doesn’t implode (50/50 proposition, today his Advisor didn't help)

I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.

My criteria, any State Bambi won with 55% or less, he will lose in 2012.

[Red Steel]

I can't comprehend 0bama leaving the White house without a Mount Carmel moment forcing him out.

He can try and he won't like the outcome.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The only states that really matter are FL, VA, and OH.

Romney MUST win all of these 3 otherwise he won’t win. Just saying.

[MplsSteve]

“I see Bambi only winning 15 States.

Hawaii, California, Wash, Ore, NM, Vermont, Conn. NY, NJ, Maryland, MI, IL, Wi, ME, Del.”

Don’t forget to toss Minnesota (10 EV’s) in there too.

We’re electorally stupid. We actually voted for Walter Mondale, Jesse Ventura AND Al Franken!

We got the “stuck on stupid” thing down pat.

[pasr]

The problem conservatives have is truth telling.Today on the FIVE Beckel made his usual fool of himself. He said Obamacare was not a tax and words don't mean anything. I love that liberal argument. Defendants in criminal cases can now argue I was charged with murder but isn't that the same as manslaughter somebody dies. The view whatever it takes always persists in the liberal mind. The conservative view process and principle matter. The liberal would say the CNN poll is right and who cares about eternals if Obama is up. Here we are questioning the poll. I like the side that would question the poll because it is not a do what it takes mentality because it feels good it is a crowd that says the most important thing is to get it right based on facts.