Is Obama's Support Weaker Than Poll Numbers Appear? (What do the boots on the ground tell us?)

American Thinker ^ | 07/02/2012 | Chad Stafko

[SeekAndFind]

There is a compelling divergence regarding President Obama's reelection chances when we consider what the poll numbers are telling us versus what the boots on the ground are indicating.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News nationwide poll taken during June 20-24 shows that Obama still leads the presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 47% to 44%. These results are within the poll's margin of error and are also close to the Real Clear Politics aggregation of major polls which finds Obama leading Romney 47.5% to 43.8%.

The same WSJ/NBC news poll found Obama leading Romney 50% to 42% in twelve so-called battleground states when considered as a group. However, when we observe the actions by those Democratic politicians up for reelection this fall in those battleground states and other states, that is their general reluctance to stand alongside President Obama, another story is told.

These politicians are more in tune with the local voters and are distancing themselves from Obama. This may be indicative that Obama's support is not as high as it appears to be according to pollsters.

Take New York, for example. While New York is considered to likely be a blue state for Obama, Democratic Representative Bill Owens and Kathy Hochul just recently announced that they will not be in Charlotte, North Carolina at the Democratic National Convention in September. Of interest is the fact that Owens won in a special election in 2009 and Hochul was victorious in a 2011 special election. Obviously, both became newly minted U.S. Representatives during the Obama presidency and each election was heralded as an example of Obama's continued strength and that of the Democratic Party.

[I still care]

Where I live NOBODY likes Obama, including all the former Obama voters I know. You can go into a store, make an overt remark, and have everybody nod in agreement.

Of course, my county never voted for 0 in the first place, so that may not count for much.

[DeaconRed]

Let the idiot Liberals believe ZERO is getting a second term.
The chances of ZERO getting a second term are slim and none.
Even Mittens can beat him, Hell I think even McLame would beat him this time.

[Buckeye McFrog]

My boots on the ground tell me that my neighbors, who are almost all Blue Dog Democrats who would literally vote for a piece of roadkill if the Party endorsed it, are really peeved at Obama. I never hear anything good about him, and even some people who are benefiting from his giveaway programs sound like they will be voting against him.

Dirty hidden secret is they are all white, middle-class and blue-collar voters who believe this guy has launched a race war against them. And THAT ain’t gonna be showing up in any polling, believe you me.

[Trick or Treat]

This may not mean a thing, but I’m not seeing nearly as many Oblammer bumper stickers this time around and I live in a heavily rat infested area. During the last election they were everywhere and now I’m only seeing one or two while I’m out driving. Oftentimes the O stickers are on a car with numerous other stickers that confirms my suspicion that the driver is a drooling idiot.

[Dilbert San Diego]

I’ve heard that some of these polls are doctored, to give results showing that Obama is more popular than he really is.

I have no evidence, just rumors about this. There’s talk that some polls over-sample Democrats, or allocate undecided voters in a way that gives Obama higher numbers in the polls.

[muawiyah]

That is the problem.

Here we actually have some Obama supporters and they'll look at you nasty ~ but they don't aggressively come over and try to intimidate you like they did 3 years ago.

The choice the Obots have is simple ~ to vote for Obama again, or just vote down ticket, or just not show up. I don't think they'll vote for a Republican candidate.

What that means is there are 69 million Democrats and fellow traveling Leftwingtards out there who cannot be counted on to vote Republican.

We started out with 59 million Republicans who might vote like they did in 2008, or, they might find no reason to vote for the Republican nominee, or they might find no reason to even show up.

A major mistake happened in Virginia when the party big dogs decided we didn't really need a primary, nor even a convention, so we were, in effect, given a choice between someone we didn't like and somebody we thought was crazy.

You really pay a price when you start teaching your own people to not show up to vote!

There's little doubt that this Fall Obama is probably going to win in Virginia due to the failure of the Republican party to invite us to vote.

[noah]

There is a very strong intimidation factor.

Look at Roberts. Obama & Leahy spoke out publically &
directly at Roberts. They did not care if everyone knew
that they had NO respect for the separation of powers.
They made it clear that they would make the Court and him a
political issue in the election, IF he did not vote their way.

ROBERTS CAVED!!

RACIAL PREJUDICE is labelled at all who oppose Obama.
Most people just want to avoid this SLUR.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Can I ask a stupid question? Why would prominent loyal Democrats skip their own party national convention?

To the political operatives of the world, aren’t these conventions sort of like the World Series/Super Bowl/Final 4 to the sports fans and employees of sports teams? Isn’t it considered a “can’t miss” sort of event? Somebody said they had a schedule conflict, so they were missing the convention. Really????

I guess I don’t understand. In addition to sitting through speeches and voting for Obama, the delegates to the convention have opportunities for networking, “schmoozing”, and in some cases, chasing women. The reasons we hear for some missing their convention just don’t make a lot of sense.

[Beagle8U]

Nov 2012: Obama and pollsters run head first into the brick wall of ‘the Bradley effect’!

[Thane_Banquo]

Pollsters ALWAYS intentionally over-estimate Democrat support until a few days before the election, when they back out their “secret sauce” in order to show the true numbers. Remember how McCain’s numbers allegedly “surged” a few days before the election (even though he still lost)? They are only judged by what their polls said the day before the election. Before that, they are free to engage in liberal propagandizing with little or no repercussions.

[Beagle8U]

Here is a bumper sticker I’d like to see...

2008...Obama will heal the nation

2012...Obama cured white guilt

[kidd]

Here in deep blue Connecticut, the mood is remarkably different than it was in 2008.

People still have Obama/Biden ‘08 stickers on their cars, but I haven’t seen any Obama ‘12 stickers. Lots of Romney yards signs, even some Ron Paul signs. Not a single Obama yard sign.

In 2008, the mood was that “Bush has to go” and that “it was about time we had a black president”. In 2012 the anti-Obama sentiment is very strong - those in opposition to Obama are very vocal, often ridiculing Obama supporters. Obama supporters sort of cower, and the most they can muster is “well, he’s better than Bush”.

Even those who try their best to remain neutral give away a strong dislike for Obama; in church our priest came very close to asking all to vote against Obama when he said that, “if Obama is re-elected, our priests, bishops and cardinals may have to exchange their vestments for prison jumpsuits (alluding to civil disobedience against Obamacare)”

Obama has started running campaign ads on TV here in Connecticut. Why would Obama spend any money in Connecticut at all, unless his campaign has some inside information that is unfavorable for Obama?

The enthusiasm factor has changed a lot here, deep in enemy territory. So much so that:
- you should never trust a “registered voter” poll - a lot of registered democrats will not vote this year, and
- you can safely place 75% of the undecided vote in favor of Romney.
- I also think that Obama’s poll numbers will only get worse.

[Anima Mundi]

I thought yellow dog Democrats were the ones who would vote for a “Yellow dog” if it was a Democrat and that blue dog Democrats were Conservative Democrats.

[God luvs America]

i live in liberalsville, USA; New Castle, NY- two miles from the Clinton's and one mile from RFK Jr, three miles from Glenn Close and Vanessa Williams a few miles away....

four years ago at this time 7 out of every ten cars in the area had an obama bumper sticker tatooed to the back...the gym where i work out has even more leftist kooks....95% of the cars had obama stickers on them and 30% of the people wore obama shirts in the gym...

fast forward four years later....

maybe one out of every 50 cars has one of those 2012 stickers on the bumper...in my gym its maybe 1 out of 70....a few leftover stickers from '08 but for the most part nothing with obama's name on it- NADA...

last week i wore a t-shirt into the gym and on my run:



i wore it as much to piss people off as i did because i believe in the message...walking into the gym i see two elderly women (70YO)- they say "we love your shirt- where can we buy one?"...i wore the shirt on my run and continuously got thumbs up from passerby's- the mechanics at the garage and even a guy driving an EMT truck...i constantly hear the liberals at the gym talking about how they don;t like obama, what a coward he is and how he's failed..

point being the "enthusiasm" for mullah obama is 1/1000th what it was in 2008...factor in Romney is not afraid to hit back at obama, versus the bend over and take it campaign of McCain and the numbers for obama support are significantly lower than what's being reported IMO...

[Buckeye McFrog]

In my experience the following are the only people around here expressing support for Obama.

1) Black people in inner-city neighborhoods.

2) College professors and young skulls o’ mush on college campi.

3) Kool-aid drinkers in union halls.

4) Some clearly brain-dead upper-middle class women who park their huge, hulking SUV’s bearing Obama 2012 bumper stickers at Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s.

[NorCoGOP]

FWIW...a friend of mine, unemployed, and now on SSDI, a lifelong Democrat (considering his situation, most are the D variety) posted this on Facebook last week after the SCOTUS ruling:

F*** Obama! Thank you.

the anger is under the surface, and will not be visible until election night.

[Buckeye McFrog]

You are right, had my colors reversed.
People around here tend to be Yellow Dog Democrats, many
of them being of the Blue Dog variety.

[skinkinthegrass]

It's the "Wilder Effect"
publicly: "Oh! Yhea!..Great guy/very interesting..intelligent..very fair.. "
Privately: Oh! MY G*D! What a complete moron/imbecile.. keep him away from society..a real social hazard.
especially; to my kids/relatives..

[wbill]

Well, this is ancedotal, but...

When BO came to my area in NC a few months back, one of the places he spoke was a school. He was introduced by no less a personage than someone like the 3rd assistant High School principal.

And, he was avoided like the plague by all the local pols (even the black ones, which surprised me) at all of his other stops. I figured that they'd be sitting next to / behind him on the stage, nodding assidously at every pronouncement to come from his teleprompter.

Nope. They weren't around. I took it as a good sign.