Syria Masses Tanks On Border With Turkey

The Times of Israel ^ | June 29, 2012

[Strategy]

The Assad regime has massed approximately 170 tanks near the Turkish border, according to an unconfirmed report on Friday by a general in the Free Syrian Army.

General Mustafa al-Sheikh told Reuters that the tanks are now located 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the border, northeast of Aleppo.

"They either want to move toward the border to confront Turkish troops stationed there, or they are planning to attack rebels in towns near the border," al-Sheikh said.

The move comes after Turkey on Thursday sent anti-aircraft guns, rocket launchers and other fortifications to the border, marking an escalation in hostilities between the two countries.

[fortheDeclaration]

Interesting.

However, I wouldn't mess with the Turks

[Lent]

Yes I’d actually love to see Russia dust up the Turks . Maybe they could continue to Istanbul and clean out that dumb-ass mosque built on one of the formerly great wonders of the world the Hagia Sophia church and return the seat of the Eastern Orthodox Church to its rightful place. Oh and also rename the city Constantinople.

[PhilDragoo]

Assad is a dead man walking.

Zero is an Islamo-Communist tool.

The Arab Spring is the replacement of secular regimes with Islamist ones.

Erdogan's Turkey presents as Islamism ascendant.

Putin is punished by Saudi production for arming the regime which resists Sunni rebels.

And he can't even do that--insurance cancellation turned around a shipload of helicopters.

Zero bowed low to the Saudi king; he grinds our Constitution underfoot in the manner Ayers used on our flag.

This is not time for popcorn.

This is time to turn off the Kardashian soma and snap:

The action is not in the field--the action is in the Muslim Oval Office.

[Alter Kaker]

Keep in mind that Erdogan and his Party of Islamist Muppets have UTTERLY DESTROYED THE TURKISH ECONOMY and the VALUE OF THE TURKISH LIRA, and have been losing favor in political polls because of it.

Then why did Moody's raise Turkey's sovereign credit rating this week? Your statements are not consistent with the facts.

Erdogan basically created a huge consumption bubble in Turkey and it burst in early 2011.

Sure the economy is growing slower than it was, but Turkey's economy still is growing at the fastest rate in Europe. Burst bubble? Don't see any sign of it. Why does Turkey still have a sovereign debt that is only 40% of GDP? By no means am I suggested that a rapidly growing economy will grow rapidly forever, but I find it hard to believe that anybody who is paying attention to Turkey would say its economy is anything other than a huge success.

[a_Turk]

>> and no way will this collection of derelicts go to war for Turkey against Russia.

First time I will agree with the opinion of what I picture to be an ornery old cuss at his keyboard.

But there will be no fighting war for NATO. This IS the war. Jr is bankrupt and on his way out. If this is played patiently, Russia will lose a client AND her base on the warm water.

[JerseyHighlander]

Note that Erdogan has been alternatively threatening Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Georgia, and now Syria in the last 9 months as he is flailing about trying to deflect the internal troubles in Turkey.

The private economy of Turkey is really screwed up. All growth in last 6 years was in non-durable goods, the imbalance of too many imports, no prospects of balancing the economic activity by exporting durable goods, and a labor base where 75% of the population only has a 8th grade education.

This uneducated populace is Erdogan’s political base, and they are getting hit the hardest as the bubble bursts. The educated metropolitan population that is much more classically liberal and secular (and Erdogan’s politlca opposition) are doing quite well as the cost of labor is falling and the rentier classes are unaffected by intra-Lira interest and rent wealth transfers.

Moody’s raised the rating of Turkey’s Federal debt because the debt is denominated in depreciating Lira.
The Central Bank of Turkey is dropping Lira from Helicopters right now to try to build inflation in a country where 70%+ of the population can not keep up with the bubble’s inflation rate.

http://www.meforum.org/3134/turkey-economic-miracle

[Slings and Arrows]

Historically, yes. Recently, no. Their government is Islamist and getting worse; they have severed military cooperation with Israel;they are trying to align with Iran, and Erdogen has expressed a clear interest in an expansionist foreign policy. The Turkey of Attaturk is dead.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Strategy.

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[SunkenCiv]

Excellent post!

[Alter Kaker]

I believe that you write what you write sincerely, but I am very confused by your statements which seem to have no basis in reality.

1. Claim: Turkey's currency is devalued.
FACT: The Turkish Lira has increased in value relative to the Euro over the last year, which is the important metric as the Euro Zone is by far Turkey's largest trading partner.

2. Claim: Turkey's credit rating is only increasing because the value of the Lira is decreasing.
FACT: Aside from the fact that the Lira isn't dropping relative to the Euro, this makes no sense. Have you ever heard of a credit rating being increased because the value of the currency is falling? I haven't.

3. Claim: You claim that Turkey is "threatening Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Georgia and now Syria."
FACT: Now I didn't really want to get down in the weeds on this, as I'm certainly not Turkish, not Muslim and don't generally agree with Erdogan on a whole lot, least of all his foreign policy, but this is ludicrous. Unless your definition of "threaten" is a heck of a lot different from the Merriam Webster definition, I have no idea what you're talking about.

[justa-hairyape]

Why all the flexing?

Syria says it is a response to Turkey moving tanks to the Syrian border. Syrian tanks are there to meet any Turkey invasion. Saudi Arabia has also moved troops to its border with Jordan and Iraq. The Saudis expect an attack from Iraqi Shiites. The whole place is about to blow up thanks to Obama/Clinton and the US States of Idiots Department.

[annalex]

That border, by the way, is disputed by Syria.

In Ottoman times, Hatay was part of the Vilayet of Aleppo in Ottoman Syria. After World War I, Hatay (then known as Alexandretta) became part of the French Mandate of Syria. Unlike other regions historically[vague] belonging to Syrian provinces (such as Aintab, Kilis and Urfa)[citation needed], Alexandretta was confirmed as Syrian territory in the Treaty of Lausanne agreed upon by Kemal Atatürk; although it was granted a special autonomous status because it contained a large Turkish minority. However, culminating a series of border disputes with France-mandated Syria, Atatürk obtained in 1937 an agreement with France recognizing Alexandretta as an independent state, and in 1939 this state, called the Republic of Hatay, was annexed to Turkey as the 63rd Turkish province following a referendum. Syria bitterly disputed both the separation of Alexandretta and its subsequent annexation to Turkey. Syria maintains that the separation of Alexandretta violated France's mandatory responsibility to maintain the unity of Syrian lands (article 4 of the mandate charter). It also disputes the results of the referendum held in the province because, according to a League of Nations commission that registered voters in Alexandretta in 1938, Turkish voters in the province represented no more than 46% of the population.[9] Syria continues to consider Hatay part of its territory, and shows it as such on its maps.[10][11] However, Turkey and Syria have strengthened their ties and opened the border between the two countries.

Syrians hold the view that this land was illegally ceded to Turkey by France, the mandatory occupying power of Syria in the late 1930s. Syria still considers it an integral part of its own territory. Syrians call this land Liwa' aliskenderun (Arabic: لواء الاسكندرون‎) rather than the Turkish name of Hatay. Official Syrian maps still show Hatay as part of Syria.[10][11]

Hatay

[a_Turk]

So? I mean, the french? the syrians? I dont think any of that matters.

[annalex]

Sure it matters. If Turkey had the habit of staying in its own borders a lot of lives would have been spared.

[Kevmo]

I doubt my plan is being contemplated. If a SpecFor guy is being sent to Afghanistan, it’s very likely because there is some wet work to be done in Afghanistan. It would be different if you knew of a HUNDRED guys being sent to some easternmost part of Afghanistan, then there is more of a likelihood for such a plan.

[a_Turk]

No, it means nothing. And I’m willing to bet that the country you’re from has killed ridiculous multitudes compared to us and then in pursuit of trade..

[Boogieman]

That’s the question isn’t it?

Turkey probably doesn’t want to actually invade Syria, but they know that by moving troops to the border, Syria must respond in kind, taking pressure off the rebels.

Are they doing it because Turkey really wants the hard line islamists to take power in Syria? Or are they doing it just to kick a longtime rival when they are down, and not caring much about the possible long term consequences? Or are they doing it at the behest of some other entity that doesn’t want to get involved directly?

[rcrngroup]

The Assad regime has massed approximately 170 tanks near the Turkish border.......the tanks are now located 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the border, northeast of Aleppo. "They either want to move toward the border to confront Turkish troops stationed there, or they are planning to attack rebels in towns near the border," al-Sheikh said.

The move comes after Turkey on Thursday sent anti-aircraft guns, rocket launchers and other fortifications to the border, marking an escalation in hostilities between the two countries.

Muslims killing other muslims! Can't get any better than that. Gotta run and pick up some more popcorn.

[nikos1121]

Does Turkey have any claim to Syrian lands?

[docbnj]

I am always amazed at what poor generalship is shown by Arab military. Almost anyone can do better.

Recall that after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, he placed most of his defenses along the shore of Kuwait and directly facing Saudia Arabia. Anyone looking at a map could see where the opportunity was for the allies: a sweep through empty deserts on our left (to the west), cutting between Kuwait and the Iraqi supply-lines, which also included water pipes to supply the Iragi troops. Many Iraqis surrended through thirst and dehydration, and hunger.

If even I could see this ahead of time (and I have NO practical military experience — only an amateur’s passing interest in history!), then why could Saddam not see it?

Now to Syria: they have supposedly “concentrated” their tanks on the Turkish border, defensively. Uh-huh! Every time you concentrate such forces, you inevitably do two things: you make a very rich target; and you deplete defenses elsewhere. One of both makes big opportunity for your opponents, in this case the Turks.

This also gives the Turks a choice among good alternatives. They can clobber the assembled tanks from the air, which will be easy and fun for their well equipped air force. Or, if they wish a ground campaign, they can sweep around the concentration in a Kesselschlacht, cutting off the concentrated Assad forces, and leaving them isolated for as long as they like, running out of supplies, and being picked at profitably by the Turks and rebels.

Or, the Turks can just let the Syrian concentration sit there, concentrated away from other areas, which might itself be a win.

We will see. Wars are rather fun to watch, if you are not actually in one.