Posted on 06/27/2012 6:41:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Ive abstained up until now from making any predictions on how the Obamacare cases will be decided. But Im now ready to offer my own reading of the tea leaves. Specifically, the fact that Justice Scalia read his dissent from the bench in the Arizona immigration case leads me to believe that the Court will invalidate the individual mandate by a 5-4 vote.
Let me explain the logical links (and expose their potential weaknesses):
1. As I understood it when I was a law clerk for Justice Scalia twenty years ago, there was an etiquette at the Court that any single justice would read a dissent from the bench no more than once each term. I gather that that etiquette is no longer uniformly acknowledged or acceptedJustice Ginsburg, I believe, has read two or more dissents in some terms. But I believe that the public record would show that Scalia has continued to abide by it.
Maybe Im wrong on this (in which case the premise of this post collapses). Im not aware of any reliable record of cases in which justices have read their dissents from the bench, so perhaps Scalia hasnt continue to abide by the standard. Or, even if he hasnt departed from it before, perhaps thats just happenstance.
2. It seems very likely that the Chief Justice is the author of the lead opinion in the Obamacare cases. Among other things, he is the only justice not to have issued a majority opinion from the March and April sittings. Also, he has written only six majority opinions so far this term, when nearly everyone else is at seven or eight. (Justice Thomas has written only six opinions, but he presumably was assigned the remaining ruling from the November. Justice Sotomayor is also at six, but she appears to have lost the majority in one of the October cases.)
3. If the Chief Justice were authoring an opinion upholding the individual mandate and if Scalia were dissenting from that holding, Scalia, as the senior justice in dissent, would have the prerogative to assign himself the lead dissent. I dont see why he would pass over that option. Further, given what seem to be the relative magnitudes of the Obamacare and Arizona immigration cases, I think it highly likely that Scalia would preserve the Obamacare dissent for the one he would read from the bench. Indeed, the fact that his dissent in the Arizona case was a solo dissent (neither Thomas nor Alito joined it) makes it even less likely as a choice. Therefore, from his reading his dissent in the Arizona case, I infer (tentatively, to be sure) that Scalia is not in dissent in the Obamacare cases.
(Obviously, if Scalia is voting to uphold the individual mandate, my analysis collapses.)
[Update: Oops. It turns out that Im demonstrably wrong on Scalias practice on reading dissents, as he had already read his dissent from the bench in March in a pair of linked cases. Maybe that bolsters my bottom-line prediction by making it even less likely that he would read a dissent for a third time in a single term, but it certainly upsets my line of reasoning.]
"It's unconstitutional, BUT..."
I don’t understand how the DEM could get away with accusing GOP health plan as something for big corporations when obamacare subsidies those big corporation insurance companies
Look what Obama did when the DREAM Act didn’t pass.
Dream Act: Obama passes amnesty by a back door ICE directive
http://www.teapartytribune.com/2011/06/23/dream-act-obama-passes-amnesty-by-executive-order/
My guess:
Individual Mandate is overturned. The rest of the bill stands and the SC leaves us ing a completely unworkable situation.
Obama will by-pass whatever ruling they make that he does not agree with. I agree with what Mark Levin said.
One I the things I find interesting is the Dems distancing themselves from Obama. I could be wrong, tho, but Obamacare was THEIR hallmark (his crown jewel, as well).....NOW some won’t show up for the convention? Hmmmmmmmmmmm.
If the individual mandate is thrown out, should not the whole thing be thrown out since there is no severability clause?
Prior to today I thought the individual mandate would be struck down. Now I am beginning to think they will approve the whole thing. I hope not but I think I am right. Rats.
One of the reasons that I believe Roberts wanted to write the Per Curiam opinion was to lecture the WH on Judicial Review.
Frankly, I think the guy is too scared to have an opinion at all. Sorta like Romney.
If they were to take a mulligan, they would more than likely have done that already.
Well, he said this:
...during a campaign stop in Salem, Va: If it is deemed to stand, then Ill tell you one thing: Were going to have to have a president -- and Im that one -- thats going to get rid of Obamacare. Were going to stop it on Day 1.
Obamacare is here to stay in some form or another.....regardless of what the politicians say...
The Arizona Ruling by THE NINE SUPREMES (actually 8) has proven that we no longer have a US Constitution.
Hence, it is pointless to talk about a Court Dictate on Obamacare being anything but a dictate of the polarized Court.
We also have a Rogue Dictator, and a Rogue Obama-Rifles Attorney General Leader.
Preference is not the issue. What the Court has already Dictated on Obamacare will be the issue.
The further destruction of the US Constitution is the most probable dictate that the Court will hand down on Thursday, as this will be the last dictate of this past year, and hence they cowardly will release their worst dictate on their last day in session.
Since Obamacare of ANY sort will financially destroy America, our options are limited to Congressional ABOLISHMENT of all of Obamacare, or for we, the people, to begin the tedious process of convening peaceful State Constitutional Conventions, and splitting the former USA into multi-State Regions.
For almost 80 years we have been saddled with the failed Keynesian Economic System. It has bankrupted the US Federal Government.
The derivatives of the WW2 Wage and Price Control Dictates are as follows: Medicare, Medicaid, Romneycare and Obamacare.
All of these vote-buying gimmicks are funded by debt created by the failed Keynesian Economic System.
Currently this Debt is charged to those who cannot vote: our Grandchildrens future descendants.
This Debt is the Federal Grandchildrens Tax, or FGT, to distinguish it from the FIT, or Federal Income Tax, which only 51 % of us are required to pay.
The Silent Majority is silent no more.
There will be additional calls for State Constitutional Conventions if the Republicans try to preserve or retain ANY of Obama or Romneycare.
Obamacare is the Death Knell for America. It must be ABOLISHED FOREVER if America is to survive.
If Obamacare does survive, then I favor Regional Areas/Republics of the former United States of America. I think the States that the XL Pipeline will run through makes excellent sense for one Region, called The Texas Region. The Mississippi Region would be those States that the Mississippi River runs through. Pacific and Atlantic Regions are obvious, as are the Rocky Mountain States.
In this way people could vote with their feet and move to a greater or lesser degree of personal Liberty.
The Great Experiment of forcing the United States of America back into the European Feudal System began with FDRs Social Security System and will end in failure with Obamacare.
There is no need for armed conflict, as we have already tried that horrific method with our bloody Civil War.
Just peacefully hold State Constitutional Conventions, split up the former USA into multi State Regions, and then hold Fourth of July Remember When Days once a year, as we thank our lucky Stars that we in NO WAY are like Europe.
If we were a Nation of Laws, we could survive.
We, instead, have become a Nation of Lawyers, and thus survival is not possible.
Lawyers do not obey the laws, they just change their interpretation of the laws to suit themselves. For example, Remember the Arizona Law! would make an appropiate State Constitutional Convention poster.
During the State Constitutional Conventions and split up of the former USA, we need to designate a multi-State Region just for Lawyers. They could then Keynesian themselves to their hearts content.
The Region that I will choose will be based on The Invisible Hand of Samuel Adams Free Market, with NO safety net.
Think it over, as it will take years to complete all of the State Constitutional Conventions.
Thus, we have time to plan to do it RIGHT, (pun intended), and throw the Liberal cartons of useless Tea millstones back into the Sea of European Feudalism/Socialism that they so richly deserve.
We must design our Multi-State Regions/Republics so that the disaster of RINO-morphing, and creeping Keyneism does not occur again.
Without an effective Check and Balance System each Multi-State Region/Republic will not survive, as has been proven in the present USA by the efforts of RINO-Democrat-Liberal Agenda Media Triangle of Doom that we have today.
There is still hope if we can DUMP Romney by having the Delegates vote to ABSTAIN on the first Ballot in Tampa.
If Romney becomes the Nominee, Obama wins big in November, just like he did against Lame-Brain McCain in 2008, and it will be GAME ON Time for us FReepers here in the former USA.
BTW, Im dusting off my Tri-Cornered Hat, will dig out my copies of The Federalists Papers, and for Patriotic Flair, may even make a few quill pens!
Let us build a more perfect Union! Long live the Second Republic of TEXAS!
____________
BTW, BTW, to the BIG BROTHER Lurkers: save your expensive Obamadrones for the continuous, and now SCOTUS-approved, invasion of the Mexican Drug Lords into Southern Arizona.
We will be no bother to you as we will be more peaceful, and more patriotically joyful than a GSA Convention in Las Vegas when we hold our many State Constitutional Conventions.
Yall come by now, hear?
My prediction is they will uphold all of it with the moronic stipulation that it does not mean that the federal government cannot actually dictate to citizens that they must “buy something”, or rather engage in interstate commerce except for very specific circumstances, and this is one of those specific circumstances.
This country will no longer survive via the ballot box once this travesty is upheld tomorrow, IMO. And since there are nowhere near enough patriots willing to do what is necessary to rid this country of the evil that is enslaving us, we have no other choice but to submit, and the federal government both knows this and has based its strategy around our apathy and complacency.
My thought it was to switch from the Bible to the Koran for the full oath. That way he can lie with immunity from his true faith.
“Obamacare will be declared DOA.”
Yep, it sleeps with da fishes.
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