Posted on 06/23/2012 2:27:47 PM PDT by blam
Chinese Economic Data Is Looking Horrible, And The Government Is Lying About It
Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 23, 2012, 12:10 PM
AP Photo
It's long been believed that China's economic data is untrustworthy, but now that the Chinese economy is clearly cooling down, that theory is being put to the test, and it seems to be confirmed that the government isn't always forthright about the numbers.
Keith Bradsher at the New York Times has a good overview of the situation.
He notes that in addition to there being an economic slowdown, this is a year of political transition, which further creates pressure on folks at all levels of government and in state-owned-enterprises to juice up the data.
“The government officials don’t want to see the negative,” so they tell power managers to report usage declines as zero change, said a chief executive in the power sector.
Another top corporate executive in China with access to electricity grid data from two provinces in east-central China that are centers of heavy industry, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both provinces had dropped more than 10 percent in May from a year earlier. Electricity consumption has also fallen in parts of western China. Yet, the economist with ties to the statistical agency said that cities and provinces across the country had reported flat or only slightly rising electricity consumption.
Meanwhile, for some ugly numbers that are coming from official sources, check out these reports from Xinhua.
Chinese cement output is up just 5% this year compared to growth of 14.3% for the same period last year. In May, flat glass output fell 10.2% (!) vs. growth over over 20% in the same period last year. The building material sector has seen a 7% profit drop.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
China’s fertility rate keeps decreasing.
In 1970 China had a 5.5 fertility rate.
In 1990 China had a 2.3 fertility rate.
In 2010 China had a 1.6 fertility rate.
China is having more deaths and less births.
By 2050 China will have less than 1 billion people.
Good post. Like I often say, this computer I’m using is Chinese and works great. Yes, I’ve had some problems with Chinese stuff...just like American stuff. But, generally, their stuff is much more reliable than anything we made even 20 years ago...not to mention being one quarter the price.
But, of course, we pay a price for that. Once China cuts off our lifeline, we are doomed. Sure, they’ll feel it too, of course, but they have the rest of the world they can supply. We’ll be alone, trying to figure out how to make a pencil.
“By 2050 China will have less than 1 billion people.”
Closer to 2100...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China
But even in 2050, they’ll still have 3 times our population. But, yes, lots of things can happen. They could have another Cultural Revolution and reset their GNP...but maybe they won’t. Likewise, we could fix Social Security and Medicare and NOT crash our economy within a decade...but does anyone think that will happen?
“But, of course, we pay a price for that. Once China cuts off our lifeline, we are doomed.”
What lifeline??? China’s economic growth is export driven. Without western consumption, China would be doomed.
In 2010 the United States manufactured $1.855 Trillion worth of goods with 12.5 million workers.
In 2010 China manufactured $1.922 Trillion worth of goods with 115 million workers.
We are able to produce just as much with less workers.
“What lifeline??? China’s economic growth is export driven. Without western consumption, China would be doomed.”
There are so many critical items that we simply DO NOT PRODUCE. If China cuts us off...we are frozen. If you don’t believe me, then you’ll find out, I guess. Even the military is starting to wonder whether it was smart to use Chinese chips in their electronics.
Again, if China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply...they’ll likely be able to ride it through. But how to build a factory that makes IPODs when you don’t even have a way to get the tooling to build them?
I hope you’re right about things getting better.
A good example is the Norinco A-47. They have an entire city dedicated to making the carbine. The kids grow up and expect to work in the plant, a lot like fathers, sons, etc. coming up from Kentucky and Tennessee and going to work for GM, Ford or Chrysler in their factories. Very labor intensive. It’s the main reason they still have a milled receiver. No stamping or pressing like most of the others, parts milled from billets.
On the other hand, I had to choose between paying at Lowes or Menards almost $500 for a Bostitch flooring cleat/staple nailer, or $116.00, with a 20% off coupon, for basically the same tool from Harbor Freight, `Central Pneumatics’, made in China. I don’t know where the Bostitch was made. It’s a Stanley tool and I know they have a lot of their stuff made in China.
The Chinese cleat nailer works great, have used it the last two days nailing hard wood flooring without a jam or problem. Sweating like a pig, but I would have been doing that with the Bostitch.
Political axiom: if you want to get peoples’ attention, appeal to their pocketbook rather than their patriotism. Car manufacturing, same thing.
“Again, if China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply”
What if we cut off the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz to all Chinese shipping. How will China get oil?
“China cuts us off, they still have 95% of the world to supply”
What if we decide to blockade China’s ports?
“Wow, I didn’t realize they were even that close to catching us. Considering that their population is 4 times ours, their GDP is now very close to ours.”
I guess they’ll overtake us even sooner than I thought.
Their workforce crested 3 years ago.
Median age in China: 35.5
Median age in the United States: 36.9
Percentage 0-14 (US) 20.1
Percentage 0-14 (CH) 17.6
I suspect the age at which the US and Chinese populations are balanced is around 18, 19 or so. The US has more children and adolescents as a percent of the population than China.
The only reason why China isn’t older than the US, is because they have more 20-30 year olds as a percentage of the population and more 40-50 year olds (and fewer 60+), about half that of the US.
What’s going to happen when the 50 year old folks become 60, and there’s no one to replace them?
“What if we cut off the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz to all Chinese shipping. How will China get oil?”
The Spratley’s for starters. But even without that, what make you think that China has a Third World military? You might want to read the Washington Times sometime - the stuff that China’s doing is so scary that I simply don’t read it anymore.
We will not be able to own the waters, particularly near China, with a navy that’s half the size of even Jimmy Carter’s navy.
http://www.history.navy.mil/branches/org9-4.htm
You’re thinking of a United States that ended many years ago.
We have 11 100,000 ton nuclear-powered supercarriers.
China has 1 70,000 ton conventionally-powered carrier.
We have 71 nuclear-powered submarines.
China has 8 nuclear-powered submarines.
Our fleet tonnage is 3,241,536 204.
China’s fleet tonnage is 626,252 144.
Our Navy can carry twice as many aircraft at sea as all the rest of the world combined.
Middle East.
“That’s why I’ve so often repeated advice for our fellow Americans to learn to make something useful as a hobby for now (pending possible shutdowns of local regulatory offices in the future). Only maybe a very few more will do it, but that’s better than fewer.”
I’m a bit different. I really can’t make stuff, but I can fix just about anything (other than electronics). Rather than making stuff, I’ve decided to take advantage of Chinese prices and hoard pretty much every non-perishable item I can think of...even water heaters (I have 3 spares). The future will be a LOT DIFFERENT from the present, for many, many, reasons and the idea of buying a water heater for $300 to $400 will be a distant memory (as an example).
Where’s the “unexpectedly”, or “surprisingly” revised numbers like 0b0wma’s regime?
There is a wonderful story by Lord Dunsany -- "The Sword of Welleran", written around 1915 or so. In the story, there is a great city (Merimna) which has carved out a vast empire, largely due to the military prowess of about 6 great warlords, the greatest of whom is Welleran. Of course, all 6 have been dead for years, but the barbarian tribes simply don't believe this. Little by little, the empire is whittled away until only the city of Merimna itself remains unconquered -- and the barbarians will not approach Merimna because they are so afraid of Welleran.
But the day comes when a barbarian climbs the city walls and touches the boot of Welleran, the great warlord who stands on the wall, guarding the city. And the barbarian finds that the boot is made of stone, and that Welleran is merely a statue. Merimna is not what she had been so many years ago, and all her leaders are dead.
Ha...they must have hired some Greek accountants....
The Italians invented double book keeping....
And the Greeks invented triple books...
1. one set for the business owner
2. Another set to show his spouse (sans "funny money for mistress and playing around)
3. Final set of books for the tax authorities.
The 21st century will be another American centurty.
Why?
The Chinese population will hit its peak in 2025.
It will be on a steady decline after that.
China is already having labor shortages.
They will get worse.
Well done and agreed. Being able to do repairs is extremely important. Yes, water heaters and many other things may well be very expensive in the near future. Inflation in countries of trading partners, low dollar, lack of foreign willingness to trade with us for a time,... That would do it.
Will be building a heavily insulated (inside and out), drainback heating shed soon with a 300 tank, then another shed with the same kind of tank (tanks also heavily insulated). Interrupted that project to start fencing (for yaks...extreme cold up here, high and dry in summer).
The collectors for heating will be homemade with copper cores, modules direct drive power to pumps (and extra pumps). Those will provide much of the hot water and heating here (well over 300 sun days). A wood stove and backup water heater will provide the rest. Propane will be used for cooking. A 1,000 gallon tank should take care of that for about 20 years.
Tradeoff for the uncomfortable weather (usually high winds, no trees, extreme cold much of the year).
Labor intensive, but I have more time than money. Such systems with thermal storage can also work better than the standard closed loop (good for sunny day and overnight only with house on mono-slab).
300-gallon, even (re. each of the two tanks).
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