Gillibrand’s Challengers

America loves its underdogs. And New York Republicans have to choose among three of them — attorney Wendy Long, congressman Bob Turner, and comptroller George Maragos, who are all vying for the Republican nomination and the long-shot chance to oust an incumbent Democrat, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.

Recent polls have shown the senator’s lead over her three potential opponents to range between 33 and 42 points. This makes sense. In New York, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one, and no Republican has won statewide office since George Pataki was elected to his third term as governor in 2002.To boot, Gillibrand already has over $9 million in the coffers.

But New York does have a history of interesting statewide upsets — Chuck Schumer over Al D’Amato, James L. Buckley winning as a Conservative-party nominee, George Pataki over Mario Cuomo. Also, national conservative organizations are investing in the race: the American Conservative Union, Americans for Tax Reform, and Citizens United, to name a few. Their dollars — mostly modest donations, though Citizens United gave the legal maximum of $10,000 — speak louder than words.

The primary race is seen as a contest between Turner and Long, with Maragos trailing a distant third. While both recognize the tremendous challenge posed by Gillibrand, both also claim to know how to pull off a win.

Bob Turner first gained national attention with his surprising capture of Anthony Weiner’s vacated congressional seat in 2011. Turner, who spent over 40 years in the television industry, does not brand himself as a politician. Instead, the 71-year-old lifetime New Yorker sees himself as someone “who got off his couch and said, ‘I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.’”

Turner has been able to attract supporters big and small, from Rudy Giuliani (“Bob Turner is the definition of a citizen-legislator”) to local political leaders such as John Watch, president of the Northeast Queens Republican Club (“He is genuine, not just someone who is stopping by to placate us”).

Turner spokesman Jessica Proud echoes this appeal, along with the congressman’s conservative bona fides: “Turner is the only one with the record. Long and Maragos have never had to be on the frontlines. Voters are going to want some assurances that what you see is what you get.”

But others — notably Grover Norquist, a Long supporter — hold that Turner’s hesitancy to take tax hikes off the table as part of any debt deal means he can’t claim to be the conservative in the race. Asked about this, Turner chuckles. “Am I chopped liver? Everyone knows at this point where I am. . . . My policies have been pretty clear.” Turner has voted for the Ryan budget in the House.

Norquist’s involvement underscores a larger theme of the race: Long is more popular among conservative organizations nationally. Steve Forbes, John Bolton, Al Cardenas (the American Conservative Union’s chairman), and David Bossie (president of Citizens United) — to name a few — are also rallying to Long’s candidacy.

Bossie calls Long “wicked smart” and argues she could be quite dangerous to Gillibrand, particularly in debates. “She is not just a candidate. . . . She’s a special candidate,” says Cardenas. Forbes says that she represents a unique opportunity for conservatives who are considering donating time and resources: “As this [race] progresses, as people realize there could be a tectonic shift, it is worth it.” Norquist adds that although Americans for Tax Reform doesn’t frequently endorse, Long was “so strong” on taxes that she “kind of required it.”

Long, who has already captured the Conservative-party nomination, itself a testament to her soundness, has quite the impressive résumé: Dartmouth graduate, clerk to Clarence Thomas, successful attorney, and mother of two. She has never run for political office before, and describes herself as a “lifelong, consistent Reagan conservative.”

Long has argued that she has another quality that could shift the general in her favor: She is a woman. “Once we get past the June 26th primary, we will be the only race in the country pitting a Democratic woman against a Republican woman,” Long points out. That, she holds, should disarm “War on Women”–style identity politics and let her focus on stark contrasts on policy.

With all this in mind, Long says she will move to the forefront of New York politics: “We are going to make some new Republicans this cycle.”

For his part, Turner argues that only he can beat Gillibrand: “I do not think there is anyone but me who can do this.” He says the fact that he already has pulled off an upset in New York, along with his roots in the business community and his strength in key demographics, uniquely positions him for November.

What do the pollsters think? “[The] gap is huge, but things happen. No one thought Schumer was going to win,” says Mickey Carroll of Quinnipiac. “On paper, Gillibrand looks unbeatable at this point. But we don’t win elections on paper. . . . Anything can happen,” adds Siena’s Steve Greenberg.

Gillibrand’s most obvious advantages may turn into liabilities. First, her name-recognition advantage likely inflates her poll numbers. Second, her evolution from a moderate congresswoman into America’s most liberal senator (according to National Journal) should weaken her support in upstate New York; her NRA rating plummeted from an A to an F with her promotion. Lastly, Obama’s falling support in the Jewish community may trickle down the ticket.

The race, by universal acknowledgment, will be difficult. But an upset could just happen for the right candidate.

— Harry Graver is an editorial intern for National Review.

Apples and oranges. In the 2009 NY-23 special election there was no GOP primary—Dede Scozzafava was hand-picked (Michael Long style) by RINO party hacks from the counties in the district—or primaries for any party. Long wasn’t showing disrespect to voters by handpicking a conservative such as Hoffman for the CP nomination, since the special-election rules forbade primaries.

In addition, Scozzafava was the candidate for which the name “DIABLO” (Democrat In All But Label Outright) was created by Mark Steyn. Bob Turner is a conservative, as proven by the fact that the worst thing you can say about him is that he doesn’t oppose raising the debt ceiling.

What Long is doing for the Senate race is nothing like what he did during the NY-23 2009 special election, but it is exactly what he did in the NY-23 2010 regular election. There was going to be a GOP primary between two conservatives—Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny—but Mike Long decided to give the CP nomination to Hoffman prior to the GOP primary to try to blackmail NY-23 Republican primary voters to vote for Hoffman over Doheny or else risk having the conservative vote split in the general. Well, GOP voters told Long to stick it and nominated Doheny, and Long’s CP once again was nothing but a spoiler party helping Democrats beat conservative Republicans. Hoffman eventually discontinued his campaign, but stayed on the ballot, and his 6.1% of the vote cost the GOP the election, with liberal Democrat Bill Owens beating Doheny by 47.5%-46.4%. Nice job there, Long.

The CP should either hold primaries, or Long should wait until the other parties hold primaries before hand-picking the CP nominee. If Long keeps this crap up, the CP will go the way of the Liberal Party, losing its accreditation because they nominated a loser who can’t get 5% statewide after losing the GOP primary.

Wendy Long could walk on water, and it still wouldn’t make it right for Mike Long to give her the CP nomination before the GOP primary field was even set (he set up the vote of the CP “leaders” back in March, before redistricting was even done in NY and prior to the closing of the filing deadline). The only thing that can come out of such a strategy is for the conservative vote to be split in the general election and thus allow the Democrat to win, as happened in NY-23 in 2010 when Mike Long did the same thing. If Mike Long refuses to allow the CP to have a primary on the same day as every other party, and instead relies on a vote by his group of pals to decide the nomination (Wendy Long got 91% of the CP “vote” over Maragos and whoever else was running prior to Turner’s announcement; was it 10 out of 11 or 20 out of 22 votes?), the least he can do is hold the vote after the other parties’ primaries so that the CP won’t divide the conservative vote unintentionally. If the GOP nominates a Scozzafava, the CP should go ahead and nominate a real conservative (BTW, Mike Long gave the CP nomination to the virulently pro-abortion Congressman Hanna; funny, he waited for redistricting to be done before nominating pro-abortion House candidates, but was all in a hurry to nominate Wendy Long for the Senate), but if the GOP nominates a conservative, the CP nominating a different conservative merely gives the election to the Democrats without any benefit to conservatives.

As for your argument that Wendy Long is more electable than Bob Turner, reasonable minds may disagree. Turner is old and a male, but surely you don’t believe that DioGuardi lost in 2010 solely because he was an old man. and Turner has actually *run for office before*, and . . . wait for it . . . won an election. Wendy Long is mounting her first ever campaign run, and while I think that it’s terrific that an intelligent, female conservative is willing to run for office, I don’t think that the fact that she’s making her first race ever a U.S. Senate race in New York State is a point in her favor.

And, yes, Wendy Long proposing to abolish the Department of Education gladdens my heart, but I don’t see how taking a position to the right of most Republican Senators makes her more electable *in New York* than a Bob Turner with more mainstream conservative views. I wish New Yorkers voted like Texans, but they don’t. Wendy Long’s views on the Dept. of Education are a bug, not a feature, when it comes to her electability.

If NY Republicans prefer Wendy Long to Bob Turner, then Mike Long will have lucked out, and conservatives will all rally around a single standardbearer in our longshot attempt at defeating Gillibrand. But if Turner wins, Mike Long will once again have needlessly turned the CP into a spoiler party, all in an attempt to feed his big ego and give the middle finger to NY Republican voters. Wendy Long announced that she’d stay in even if she lost the GOP primary, so Gillibrand’s reelection will be a fait accompli; the only question is whether Long will be able to get 50,000 votes statewide. Unless, of course, Mike Long tells Wendy to move to New Jersey so that he can place Turner on the CP slate, as he was shamed into doing in 2010 when Lazio had to run for a judgeship so that Long could make Paladino the CP nominee.

imo, you need to take your disagreements re: Mike Long to another thread. As I said I was registered with the NY Conservative Party, but left them. HOWEVER, I won’t take it out on good candidates. It is what it is, and we can’t harm the state/country because we don’t care for Mike.

Again, would you support Bob Turner if he received 91% from Mike Long’s Party and they put him on their Conservative Party’s line? Wendy did say she would support the Republican candidate after.

I never said that DioGuardi lost because SOLELY because he was an older man, but having Gillibrand’s opponent being around her age, and a woman helps. It will be far more difficult for Gillibrand to pull out the so-called “war on woman” card.

But it’s not just because WENDY Long is a young woman, of course. Wendy is brilliant, and VERY well spoken. Wendy would make Kirsten Gillibrand look very uneducated in a debate, imo.

More about WENDY Long:

“The following Gothan Tea Party June 20, 2012 press release explains why Long is the best choice.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
snip

Gotham was impressed by Wendy’s grasp of our core ideals of fiscal conservatism, constitutional government and the preservation of free markets. In several meetings we saw that Wendy is far from a one-dimensional conservative. She has proven to be a quick learner and is now fluent on a variety of fiscal issues.”

excerpt http://www.renewamerica.com/columns/gaynor/120620

Albany, New York – The State's Conservative Party has now endorsed Republican candidate for Governor Carl Paladino, a move that helps the Buffalo developer's chances against Democratic frontrunner Andrew Cuomo.

Paladino and Conservative Party Chair Mike Long put aside their differences, and cleared the way for Paladino to appear on the Conservative Party line on the November ballot.

Long, who had called Paladino a “dangerous candidate”, says he still believes that, but in a different way.

“He's dangerous,” said Long. “To the liberals in this state.”

Long and Paladino had a long talk over the weekend, and Paladino, who's advocating tax cuts and spending cuts, says he and the Conservative Party have a lot in common, and a common goal; to prevent Cuomo from winning the election.

“It has a lot to do with the people versus the establishment,” said Paladino. “They want the ruling class in Albany- they want them out.”

Initially, the Conservative Party had backed Rick Lazio. After Lazio lost the GOP primary to Paladino, the former Long Island Congressman withdrew from the conservative line.

http://wxxinews.org/post/paladino-wins-conservative-party-slot

When the CP nominated Lazio instead of Paladino, the CP lost all credibility. It was the registered Republicans that gave Paladino a super landslide victory in the 2010 primary. NY Rats are happy to have the CP around to siphon votes from conservative candidates who get on the GOP line. I agree that the CP would be more effective if it waited until the GOP primary was concluded. If the GOP nominates a RINO, then by all means start siphoning. Putting Ms. Long out there before redistricting and seeing how the GOP nomination shakes out is an odd way to play your hand. I cannot understand politicians who have an ego big enough to be talked into a United States Senate race without ever having won a general election of any kind — not even dog catcher. The best choice on Tuesday, 26Jun is Bob Turner. Turner has a shot in November because he will cut into the support the Rats need in NYC to overcome the more conservative upstaters — the ones that gave Paladino a landslide victory in the 2010 primary.

I don’t think that this is a bad thread to discuss how Mike Long tries to blackmail GOP primary voters into picking his preferred candidate by giving her the CP nomination first and saying that the conservative vote will be split if they don’t nominate her as well.

It’s good to hear that Wendy Long now pledges to support the GOP nominee, as I’m sure that Turner and Maragos will do as well. This is a new development; when she got the CP nomination in early March, she vowed to keep campaigning all the way to the general election even if she didn’t win the GOP nomination.

The primary is today, so the hypothetical could soon become real. If Long doesn’t win, will she actually endorse the GOP nominee? And will she vacate the CP nomination (by either running for a judicial post or moving out of state) so that the winner of the GOP primary can also be on tbe CP ballot line? Because if she stays on the ballot but ampaigns for the Republican, she will get too few votes to help the CP but enough votes to make it a foregone conclusion that Gillibrand will win.

May the best candidate win, and may the conservative vote not get split.

I don’t think we’re that far apart guys. Remember how I said I LEFT the NY Conservative Party because they sometimes back pro-aborts?

I really think Wendy is going to get the nomination today, but IF she doesn’t, there’s a way out, according to this:

(Wendy) “Long is an attorney though, and if she lost the GOP primary, the Conservative party could nominate her for a judge race, freeing up the conservative line for the GOP winner.

UPDATE: Long spokesman Dave Catalfamo sent this statement:
“Wendy Long will support the Republican nominee because she will be the Republican nominee.”’

more http://www.capitaltonight.com/2012/05/long-pledges-to-support-gop-nominee/

I agree with Catalfamo. It will probably be Wendy. She’s been campaigning all over the state, including a small town my brother lives in, with about 25,000 people, as well as Buffalo, etc..

Wendy is not only pro-life, but she has fought for the pro-life issues, and gave much of her time to the pro-life cause.

She knows her Constitution so much that she is called a Constitutional scholar, and boy, do we need someone like that in the U.S. Senate.

Wendy is obviously a strong fiscal conservative to get the endorsement of folks like Steve Forbes, Grover Norquist, et al.

And Laura Ingraham will probably campaign for/with her, as they are great personal friends, as well as the fact that they share the same ideology.

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