Posted on 05/04/2012 6:35:44 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The April jobs report fell short of analysts expectations, as only 115,000 jobs were added. Consensus expectations had been in the 165K-170K range, which still would have been below the rate jobs were added in February, January, and December. While the jobless rate dropped slightly, the number of jobs added came in short of March's disappointing level:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.
Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)
So how did the jobless rate drop? The same way it’s been dropping all along — people exiting the workforce:
The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.
That’s a new 30-year low in the participation rate. Here’s the chart from the BLS for the last 30 years:
Note that the biggest and steepest plunge has taken place since the Obama recovery started in June 2009.
The U-6 rate held steady in April nonetheless at 14.5%, even with the increased exodus of workers from the workforce.
Update: CNBC notes that the actual employment level in the US fell by 169,000:
April’s job report lived up to muted expectations, with the economy creating a meager 115,000 jobs during the month as the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent. …
Though the headline number indicated job creation, the total employment level for the month actually fell 169,000.
“This remains a weak economy, and the job counts in March and April — which have come in at considerably below 200,000 per month — may perhaps continue right through the summer,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board.
Wall Street economists had been expecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics report to show 170,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate holding steady at 8.2 percent.
That weakness will keep jobs and the economy at the top of the list for voter concerns, and keep Obama and his campaign on their mission to talk about any other distraction they can find from it.
Update II: Zero Hedge notes that 522,000 people left the workforce in April, or more than four times the number of net jobs gained in the BLS report.
Update III: Yes, but what does Reuters say? The rose-colored-glasses wire service calls this a “mixed” report:
Employers decreased hiring for the second straight month in April but the unemployment rate still fell to 8.1 percent, giving mixed messages about the economy’s strength ahead of President Barack Obama’s November re-election bid.
Employers added 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said on Friday.
The reading keeps fears alive that the U.S. economy is losing momentum and dampens hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring signaled a turning point for the recovery.
The unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to a three-year low, as people left the work force. The jobless rate is derived from a separate survey of households, which showed a drop in the number of jobs in April.
So what was the “mixed” part? The BLS adjusted the jobs gains numbers in February and March upward, but you have to love how Reuters frames it:
Still, the government revised upward its initial estimates for payroll growth in February and March by a combined 53,000. That left the six-month average of job growth at 197,000, nearly exactly where it would have been had April job growth come in as expected at 170,000.
But, er … it didn’t. So what does that tell us about the economy and jobs growth? It ain’t a mixed message.
The recession is over. Our economy is growing. Everyone is employed.
Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.
It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to
88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.
Labor force participation Rate:
People not in labor force:
I was surprised the CNN article on this openly said fairly on in the headline that the drop was due to people leaving the workforce.
Found this on Zero Hedge. Some additional charts and tables that show how BAD things are getting.
It it a EUROPEAN jobs recovery. that is, a SOCIALIST job recovery.
If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until February 2020—8 years—to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by April 2016—not for another four years.
Given an expectation of a BIG decline in the participation rate on November 2 (Friday prior to November 6), I’m expecting a big increase in the rate on October 26, October 19, perhaps October 12 as well...
Some bureaucrats are playing with the inputs to the unemployment rate with the understanding that most Americans will be mostly paying attention to that resulting number, and the media will carry that message in full force.
RE: I was surprised the CNN article on this openly said fairly on in the headline that the drop was due to people leaving the workforce.
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It’s coming to a point where one cannot ignore the labor participation rate any longer. The U6 figures will then figure more prominently.
You can’t put a happy face on the unemployment rate figures when PEOPLE REALLY ARE NOT WORKING.
At the rate this is going, we’ll have MORE PEOPLE DROPPING OUT OF THE WORKFORCE and by November, the unemployment rate approaching 7%.
But if you don’t have a job and know that your neighbor, college grad kid and friends don’t have a job either, eventually you’ll know the figures are BS.
Don't you mean volunteering in a community garden? Or is it an Agricultural collective?
The Fed’s unemployment statistics are about as phoney as the Fed’s CPI/inflation statistics. Phoney baloney.
Fortunately for Obaba and the new American Fascist Party (aka Democrats), with Dem voters, you really CAN fool all the people all the time.
Jeez! But we as a people have become dumbed down!
The 115K new jobs that were created was well below the 160K that analysts had expected.
And some of the internals are distressing too.
The public sector is ugly.
There were 15K public sector jobs lost, worse than the 5K that was expected.
That’s worse than last month, and that’s worse than the virtually flat level of jobs created than we saw two months ago.
Remember, two months ago we were hopeful that this meant that the public sector bleeding has stopped.
This is a big deal, since the public sector is what’s been creaming GDP and jobs.
What’s more, this news comes amid news that California is missing badly on its tax goals for April.
The fewer numbers of workers is what drops the unemployment rate, not fewer jobs.
Any sensible person can see the trend is impossible. Unless people are dying, retiring or leaving the country, that flatting of the chart starting in 2008 is as phoney as a 3 dollar bill. You can take the chart back to 1948 using the bls.gov website Top searches and see that what happened starting in 2008 is VERY unusual and has not happened in the recorded history of the bls statistics. In fact, data that goes back during and before the GREAT DEPRESSION showed an steady increase in American workers. But, Enter Obama, master magician and conman extraordinaire. Now our workforce starts disappearing for the first time in our history!!!!
No, we won’t.
The money to support Julia has to come from somewhere.
To quote Mr. Mom, “You’re doing it wrong.”
0bama's ugly face will be on TV and the idiot MSM announcer chosen to shill for him, will announce that his policies are working and unemployment is down! This will reach a crescendo right before the election, whether anyone gets hired or not.
Related to this is the fact that legal and illegal Mexicans and others from Central America have been returning to the motherland south of the border at rates that exceed the illegals heading north. And its not just illegal aliens heading home: I've read several articles over the last few weeks about young legal Indians and Chinese - some of whom were born here to immigrant parents -- moving to India and China because of the abundance of entrepreneurial opportunities.
If you are married and staying at home out of choice, then you should not be counted as unemployed. If you are retired and not seeking work, then you should not be considered unemployed.
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