The chart below, which incorporates pre-recession assumptions about labor force growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows how the jobs gap has evolved since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, and how long it will take to close under different assumptions for job growth. The solid line shows the net number of jobs lost since the Great Recession began. The broken lines track how long it will take to close the jobs gap under alternative assumptions about the rate of job creation going forward.
If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until February 2020—8 years—to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by April 2016—not for another four years.
Given an expectation of a BIG decline in the participation rate on November 2 (Friday prior to November 6), I’m expecting a big increase in the rate on October 26, October 19, perhaps October 12 as well...
Some bureaucrats are playing with the inputs to the unemployment rate with the understanding that most Americans will be mostly paying attention to that resulting number, and the media will carry that message in full force.