Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Note to Congress: The fiscal cliff cometh
Washington Post ^ | 05/04/2012 | Mohammad El-Erian, PIMCO

Posted on 05/04/2012 6:16:47 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Economists are rightly starting to warn that the United States faces a worrisome “fiscal cliff” at year’s end. The blunt spending cuts mandated by the 2011 compromise on the debt ceiling — and the failure of the “supercommittee” that followed — along with across-the-board tax increases would derail the U.S. recovery and undermine the well-being of the global economy. We should be avoiding the edge of this cliff — and politicians should not believe that they have until the end of this year to act.

In the next few months, possibly within weeks, markets here and abroad will be looking for signals that our politicians understand the severity of the situation and are able and willing to act appropriately. If clear signals are not forthcoming, markets could react early to the looming trouble, compounding the uncertainties that weigh on the U.S. economy.

It is well known that both Democrats and Republicans in Congress have failed in the past few years to address our nation’s difficult fiscal issues. The most visible example is the repeated absence of a comprehensive annual budget. Less obvious but equally important is the large and meaningful collection of budgetary reforms that have been delayed, obfuscated and derailed. In the process, all sorts of spending cuts and tax increases got kicked further down the road. Now, a meaningful and consequential set is coming together in a rather disorderly fashion.

The sequestration mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the reversal of the Bush-era and payroll tax cuts would essentially mean withdrawing from the economy some 4 percent of the national income in one blunt go — and this doesn’t factor in possible knock-on effects. The importance of this issue cannot be overstated.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: debt; fiscalpolicy
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-25 next last
Mohamed A. El-Erian is chief executive and co-chief investment officer of the investment management firm Pimc
1 posted on 05/04/2012 6:16:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

This article is a great read. However, it does not take a rocket scientist to understand that the collapse is coming.

Congress has failed to act on many occasions. It will continue to fail to act. So, the only outcome left is a collapse...and not even a controlled collapse.
Stock up on everything.


2 posted on 05/04/2012 6:23:04 AM PDT by tennmountainman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
El-Erian is a widely recognized thought leader and, along with Bill Gross, is credited with developing the post-global financial crisis concept of the "New Normal." - Wikipedia

Not sure I want to give credence to a quitter.

3 posted on 05/04/2012 6:25:41 AM PDT by grobdriver
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Folks, they’ll keep the balls in the air and the facade upright as long as possible,

but they’re coming down eventually.


4 posted on 05/04/2012 6:27:17 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tennmountainman

“Stock up on everything.”

We’ve been doing that for 2+yrs.


5 posted on 05/04/2012 6:27:38 AM PDT by Carriage Hill (((.)))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’m sure Mohammad is looking out for US interests here./s/

Note to Mohammad: Your Muslim pal, Obama, is the one you need to talk to about running up a $5 trillion debt in just three years and one session of Democrat control over both houses of the Congress.


6 posted on 05/04/2012 6:55:19 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tennmountainman

—However, it does not take a rocket scientist to understand that the collapse is coming.—

I agree. These articles, to me, are like reading articles that demonstrate that the sun sets in the west. What makes them compelling, however, is the knowledge that so many people think it sets in the east, or that the moon is really the sun on 10% power.

And in that response is a hint at how I am finally coming around and no longer looking at the soon coming collapse as “ever near future” to “the day really will come”, is changing my lifestyle drastically.

Bullets, silver, tools, buildings, food, garden, etc. are what it is ALL about now. I feel like the Bruce Willis Character in The 12 Monkeys going back for the last time to the time that culminates in the airport scene. IOW, we’re almost there. And by almost, I mean today or tomorrow, or next week are ALL a very real possibility.

I “see” this meltdown future almost that clearly.

The flip side is that it can be quite depressing, thinking about it. Even those of us who are “totally” prepared, will be living in a very bad world. This is especially true if one is a believer in bible prophesy and NOT a pre-tribulationist (I am a believer but not a pre-tribulationist, though I used to be).

I’ve avoided going “full in” regarding prepper activities. My reasoning was simple: Where your treasure is, there shall your heart be also. That is, if all of your future preparation is for the apocalypse, in a very real way, you WANT the apocalypse to happen. I did not want to get to that point.

I’ll fight the urge now, but our future is very clear to anyone really paying attention. I especially pray for those who live in the cities and suburbs. It will get very ugly. I say this with three daughters living in condos in downtown Seattle. :-(


7 posted on 05/04/2012 6:57:47 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: MrB

—but they’re coming down eventually.—

My “gut” is telling me “eventually” is just about here.


8 posted on 05/04/2012 6:58:31 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: tennmountainman

You are correct.


9 posted on 05/04/2012 6:59:56 AM PDT by TheWriterTX (Riding the Long-Wave Economic Contraction, Baby!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SaraJohnson

RE: I’m sure Mohammad is looking out for US interests here./s/

I’m sure you know that this guy was the manager of Harvard’s endownment fund which ballooned to over $33 billion not too long ago.

And well, what to say, this Muslim handles part of MY RETIREMENT money.... The PIMCO Total Return Fund.


10 posted on 05/04/2012 7:00:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: carriage_hill

I am assuming there are many people like us. Ones that are not “suvivilist” but “realist”. Smart decision.


11 posted on 05/04/2012 7:28:20 AM PDT by tennmountainman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; All

Think about the contradiction of these two paraphrased statements from Sen. Jim DeMint, R Sc.: 1.) ‘I want to stay in the US Senate’; and 2.) ‘I will leave the US Senate in two years.’

Could it be that DeMint is preparing to be a Presidential Primary Candidate in 2016?

We need to draft DeMint in 2012 and avoid the sorry Romney years if Romney wins!

IMHO, Romney will loose by a hair to Obama which will require that Obama be immediately IMPEACHED in order to save our Republic.

Obama or Obamalite, the US Federal Government will not have it’s, and therefore our, financial house in order by 2016.

Thus, political resolution of the main problem: OVERSPENDING BY THE US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, may not be achievable in 2016.

Hence, it is IMPERATIVE that we have an OPEN Convention in Tampa so that Sen. Jim DeMint can be drafted, albeit kicking and screaming, to be the Republican Party Nominee for the Office of the President of the United States of America.

I propose that voting for Ron Paul as a Primary wedge Candidate against Romney should lead to an Open Convention in Tampa.

Since Ron Paul cannot win the Nomination, he would just serve as our last best wedge hope of defeating Romney AND the GOP-E in an Open Convention.

Primary Candidate Ron Paul is the last non-Romney Candidate left standing between the GOP-E’s Romney, (= probable loss to Obama in November), and an Open Convention of a Republican that can soundly defeat Obama.

A “win” over Obama is not enough, Obama MUST lose in a LANDSLIDE!!!!!!

NONE of the Primary Candidates have shown that they have that potential.

It is time for an Open Convention to choose the best Presidential Candidate.

It is time for us Conservatives to turn out in massive numbers in the remaining primaries, especially in the big electoral delegate states such as Texas, and vote for ANYBODY BUT ROMNEY!

Ron Paul needs only to win one more State Primary to qualify as a Nominee Candidate, and therefore is our best chance for Open Convention delegates to select a GREAT Nominee, such as Senator Jim DeMint.

I think Senator Jim DeMint would be our best choice, but first we must work to have an Open Convention in Tampa.

What say all of you?


12 posted on 05/04/2012 7:28:39 AM PDT by Graewoulf ((Dictator Baby-Doc Barack's obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND U.S. Constitution.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cuban leaf
"That is, if all of your future preparation is for the apocalypse, in a very real way, you WANT the apocalypse to happen."

We went "All In" back in 2008 in a similar fashion as you have... and believe me FRiend, there is no way on God's green earth that we "want" it to happen!

How one can look into their Grand children's eyes and NOT prepare for what is coming down the road?

Good Luck with all your preps... they will not in vain.

13 posted on 05/04/2012 7:29:16 AM PDT by JDoutrider (Impeach! Incarcerate! Deport!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: JDoutrider

—We went “All In” back in 2008 in a similar fashion as you have... and believe me FRiend, there is no way on God’s green earth that we “want” it to happen!—

Two things:
1. I’m not saying it will always be that way. It is just a risk.
2. The “wanting it to happen” can be subconscious.


14 posted on 05/04/2012 7:33:00 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

We need to run full speed over the fiscal cliff, and over the political cliff. Salvation is in the fall, just before there is nothing left to save. At least, that seems to be the reasoning these days. More likely, instead of a phoenix rising up from the ashes, the pieces that are left will be sifted through by curious spectators for decades to come.


15 posted on 05/04/2012 7:33:04 AM PDT by pallis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

One can disagree if you wish about the motive of this muslim writer. But one has to think for themselves, as well.

If this divided congress is unable or unwilling to address the spending crisis that our nation faces. What other outcome is there?


16 posted on 05/04/2012 7:33:15 AM PDT by tennmountainman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: tennmountainman

More on the background of the author of this article:

Born New York City, August 19, 1958 (age 53)
Residence Newport Beach, California
Nationality French/Egyptian/US
Alma mater Oxford University, Cambridge University
Occupation CEO of PIMCO


17 posted on 05/04/2012 7:44:46 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
undermine the well-being of the global economy

Tough titty.

If we get the death of the "global economy" out of this mess, we will have better chances at recovery afterwards.

18 posted on 05/04/2012 7:47:25 AM PDT by Jim Noble ("The Germans: At your feet, or at your throat" - Winston Churchill)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Mr. Harvard Smartypants has failed to assess the political situation that is blocking the reform of government and it’s spending. His message should have been to his comrade in the White Hut and the Senate, not to Congress.

He’s handling some of our Harvard retirement money, too.


19 posted on 05/04/2012 8:02:32 AM PDT by SaraJohnson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: tennmountainman

Realism will always prevail, tmm.


20 posted on 05/04/2012 8:52:54 AM PDT by Carriage Hill (((.)))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-25 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson