Romney and Santorum would split vote if Gingrich exited race [What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]

Pocono Record - PA ^ | March 17, 2012

[Cincinatus' Wife]

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney would stand to benefit just as much as Rick Santorum if Newt Gingrich exited the presidential race, according to a new poll released Friday.

The Gallup poll defied conventional wisdom by suggesting Romney would peel off just as many Gingrich supporters as Santorum would. Forty percent of Gingrich supporters in Gallup's daily tracking poll said Romney was their second choice while 39 percent said they would migrate to Santorum.

"If two candidates for a presidential nomination compete in the same ideological space, it would make sense that if one dropped out that the other would benefit," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in analysis accompanying the poll. "But that does not appear to be the case for the 2012 Republican nomination."

Jones added that for Santorum to overtake Romney, "it may not be as simple as picking up additional support from Gingrich voters should the former speaker of the House drop out." Rather, "Santorum would also likely need to cut into Romney's current base of support to gain ground on the frontrunner."

Rick Santorum has battled Gingrich through most of the primary cycle as the two contenders have tried to establish themselves as the chief alternative to Romney. However, since winning the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21, Gingrich has won just one other state -- his native Georgia.

Meanwhile, Rick Santorum has shown strength in several southern and midwestern states, having won Iowa, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota and the non-binding Missouri primary, putting pressure on Gingrich to pack his bags and allow Santorum to go head-to-head with Romney.

While the former Pennsylvania has not explicitly called on Gingrich to exit the race, he has publicly admitted that he could benefit from his rival's departure.

But after the Mississippi and Alabama primaries, Gingrich argued his continued presence was damaging to Romney, forcing him to engage in a two-front war on the airwaves against his rivals.

Gingrich also dismissed suggestions that by staying in the race he was hurting Santorum, saying the former Pennsylvania senator had essentially gone one-on-one with Romney in Ohio and Michigan and lost.

Santorum and Romney are set to do battle in Illinois Tuesday, the next big contest to vote following the Missouri caucuses and Puerto Rican primary over the weekend.

The latest poll in Illinois by FOX Chicago News showed Romney leading Santorum 37 percent to 31 percent in the state. Gingrich had 14 percent while eight percent supported Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

[bushinohio]

It must be nice to be so smart.

[StAnDeliver]

While that any FReeper paradigm cannot be axiomatically projected upon the conservative populace at large, in this instance -- res ipsa in this very thread -- FReepers represent a microcosm of the rancor between Newt v. Rick supporters.

Which lends some credibility to Gallup, which took a huge sample to overcome the inherent polling difficulties associated with discerning differences within a homogenous population.

The caveat, however, comes with the Gingrich slug (less so with the inclusion of "Republican-leaning independents"). The slug is necessarily noted & noteworthy, but at the same time the internal sample suffers from the small population:

• For results based on the total sample of Republican registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
• For results based on the total sample of 290 Newt Gingrich supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

[cripplecreek]

I’m sure those polls had no credibility because they didn’t have the results you wanted to display,

That attitude seems to be pretty common among the people who puff their chests out about fighting the media and then repeat what the media says without end if they agree.

Seems to me that Rick Santorum has stood up in the face of a sustained media assault more than a month long so far.

[bushinohio]

Not to mention being outspent 4,5,6,10 to 1 in some states and still remaining competitive.

[JediJones]

If either one dropped out, was announced as the other’s V.P., and stayed on the campaign trail with them, then the other would almost certainly pick up the vast majority of their support. Does anyone disagree with it? That’s what they need to do. They should be locked in a room until they’re able to make a deal along those lines. Because there’s one thing that’s almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June. Unless of course, Romney is arrested for murder between now and then.

[cripplecreek]

As of super Tuesday, Santorum had only spent half again when my congressman spent winning his seat in my district.

I like that kind of conservatism.

[napscoordinator]

[What if Rick exited and Newt stayed?]

Romney would get the nomination easily. It is either Santorum or Romney. You can't as much as people would hope name a nominee that has only won two states. Just can't happen. Newt cannot win anywhere else in America. I am sorry for that, but those are the facts. If he could have won at least one state in each area then I think he could be the nominee, but since it is only his home state and the state next to it, how could he get enough electorals? I think SC and GA would give him 19 electorals and Obama would get about 520. That is not a good strategy.

[StAnDeliver]

I do recall the Feb. 11 PPP poll taken at the peak of Santorum's surge (and by that, I only mean the anomalous 'cycling' to the apex of the national polls that every GOP candidate has had this primary cycle) just after his trifecta. That one included Paul, though.

• "The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul."

[napscoordinator]

UNLIKE Rick and Mitt, Newt Gingrich didn't rest on his laurels complaining about the liberal political landscape of his state. Newt CHANGED the political landscape in GA (as he did in Washington), brought Democrats into the party, rallied people to get involved in politics — all by pushing conservatism.

Which is why I think his best bet is to run for Governor of Georgia. That is where his strength is. He would make a fine Governor of Georgia. They love him there (at least 43 percent do) and that might be enough for him to make it. He just doesn't muster much interest beyond Georgia....South Carolina he could probably run for Governor if he moved there now and started campaigning. This is his best option now. Nothing else is feasible for him. People are not voting for him for President.

[napscoordinator]

Newt is best for Governor of Georgia. He never should have jumped into the Presidency run without a state wide run. He is a horrible campaigner and planner. Skipping all those states was the dumbest thing I have seen in politics. He is better suited as Governor of Georgia. It would not be easy to win but he has a shot.

[org.whodat]

LOL, choice is between almost dead last and last. Why not say the choice is between mitt and ron paul. LOL, a person with 40 negatives, ok. That leave you completly out of the rational section.

[Mozilla]

“The ultimate goal is to BEAT OBAMA!”

Well Mitt is no victory against Obama. Mitt is a sure fire loss. And how could a person who backs Newt and knows how bad Mitt is then support Mitt? This country is dead if they don’t get it by now. Gingrich is anti-Romney. Slick Mitt does NOT stand a better chance of beating Obama. He actually stands a worse chance than Rick Santorum.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Your post did not make any sense.

I’m hoping you know that.

[StAnDeliver]

"If either one dropped out, was announced as the other’s V.P., and stayed on the campaign trail with them, then the other would almost certainly pick up the vast majority of their support. Does anyone disagree with it?"

Unless you consider the possibility that Santorum is running to bump Rubio out of Mitten's VP slot. Announced on the eve of the convention, it would quickly metamorph into a sweeping first-ballot victory for the ticket.

"Because there’s one thing that’s almost certain, if all 4 candidates stay in the race and the status quo continues, Romney wins by getting around 1,200 delegates by June."

See above.

[org.whodat]

Rational people would tend to agree that your prior post matched it. Were/are you a liberal?

[Right_in_Virginia]

Rational people would tend to agree that your prior post matched it.

What?!?

[StAnDeliver]

What this poll doesn't consider -- and should have included -- is how many Gingrich supporters have already moved to Santorum & Mittens.

Go back again to early Feb. and Santorum's cyclical apex:

A Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV poll conducted Feb. 2-6 shows .... Santorum's support more than doubled from 14 percent six weeks ago to 30 percent, putting him in a statistical dead heat with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who increased his support to 29 percent from 18 percent. Santorum's gain was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's loss, as his numbers here plunged from 35 percent to 13 percent.

Santorum +16, Mittens +11, Newt -22. Ignoring the unequal math, that's roughly the 60/40 split other FReepers have conjectured would happen.

[Kenny]

The choice that remains is between Mitt and Newt. That’s just the way it is.

Reality check, Newt isn't winning states. He's vastly unpopular with the voters and is not endearing himself further with the promise of a chaos at the convention.

In the real world, the choice is Mitt or Rick, pick one or don't, that's your right.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

[Kenny]

The time spent arguing over why we despise one candidate more and for what reasons..is self defeating...and really uninteresting...

. . I have decided to focus on Senate races nationally and local races in my state instead. If we can take the Senate, we will be contributing to the checks and balances system that may be our only hope of tempering an out of control radical POTUS.

Agree 100% on all counts. Our country is in danger of becoming a third-world dictatorship. FR has always been the site that motivates us to fight back for freedom. Too much time spent on back and forth, we need to get to work.