Newt is Right: Santorum is Better Off With Gingrich in the Race

The latest FOX News poll of Republican voters supports Newt Gingrich’s strange-sounding assertion that his presence in the race is actually a benefit to rival Rick Santorum.

Gingrich casts the advantage to Santorum in a tactical sense, saying that the two of them together divide Romney’s attention and bleed the Republican frontrunner of his money. Gingrich argues that Romney’s success is attributable to negative ads and out-spending that cannot be replicated in a general election and so, therefore he should be bled and blocked so that someone else can get the nomination at the end of August.

Santorum supporters have argued that the time has long since come for Gingrich to drop out of the race so that Santorum can unite the right and defeat Romney outright before the convention.

But with Romney so far ahead on delegates, Santorum would need to win 66 percent of the remaining delegates to win, a tough task for someone who has won only 27 percent so far. Even if he had won all of the delegates Gingrich had won so far, Santorum would only have 41 percent of the total, still 12 percent behind Romney.

The poll suggests, though, that the reality of a Gingrich-less race might not even be as good as that for Santorum.

Gingrich polls at 13 percent in the latest survey, one point better than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 19 points behind Santorum and 25 points behind frontrunner Romney.

But when asked how they would vote without Gingrich in the race, the former speaker’s supporters don’t all shift to Santorum. Out of Gingrich’s 13 percent, Santorum gets 7 percent, but Romney gets 5 percent. Paul gets a point too.

While Santorum would move up, Romney would be pushed even closer to the finish line......

If Gingrich bows out now and the states go the way they are supposed to, Romney would be somewhere around 1000-1040 delegates.

This doesn’t take into effect the massive amount of momentum Santorum would get from the May Calendar alone. On April 24, PA, DE, NY, CT, and RI. If Santorum scores an expected victory in PA, an upset victory in DE (if O’Donnell can win with Tea Party support its possible) and win 6-7 Congressional districts in NY, it would push him into huge momentum going into May, where he’d be the favorite in virtually every state (KY, WV, NC, AR, TX, NE, IN, and OR.

Except OR, all are likely wins for Santorum. This means that Romney could very well limp to the June 5 primaries in CA, NJ, NM, SD, and MT with Santorum having enough momentum to win SD, MT, and at least 20-25 Congressional districts in CA. This would keep Romney at least under 1,050.

However, if Newt stays in, the projected number I’m seeing and what looks most likely is Romney gets to around 1,177 on June 19. That’s because Newt is letting Romney win more delegates than Romney normally would, like what happened in OK, AL, and MS. If this repeats across the other favorable non-Romney states, it’s impossible to stop him. The only way Newt helps Santorum by staying in is if he campaigns directly for Romney’s supporters (affluent, women, seniors, Hispanics), four categories Newt has done horrendous in.

I’ve been running the numbes on my IL simulation. Turnout will be key. Santorum needs to do well in mid and downstate, but like IA, the population of this area as steadily decreased, although Northern IL hasn’t increased by very much. IL has 102 counties. Santorum probably has to win the 50 or so small counties by anywhere from 500-1000 votes to offset Chicago (Cook), Lake, Northern IL suburbia, Springfield, the Quads, and along the MO border. Even with Newt getting only 6%, it may swing the state to Romney if it’s close, though I’m still not sure there are enough conservative voters in IL to make a difference. It is hard to tell what Romney’s true support in IL is off of his 2008 primary showing because by that time, many conservatives were voting for Romney to stop McCain.

I’ve thought of posting the same before...this primary is just like the last...1/3 GOP-e ‘Big Gov’t.’, 1/3 Big Gov’t Christian Socialist, and 1/3 rational Conservatives.

If the choice is between Mitt and Rick, I’d pick Mitt..and I am a Gingrich supporter/donor.

I consider a man’s religion as part of the whole of the man...to determine his ‘moral’ nature if you will...but I, and many Americans, get turned off when it becomes a central theme of his candidacy. We are not electing a National Priest here. I don’t begrudge anyone their religion, but feel religion is a purely personal phenomenon and not a staple of a presidential campaign. ‘Faith, family, freedom’? Really?

Personally I’d rather the platform be ‘Economy, employment and energy’.

Santorum doesn't have a chance of beating Obama and if we hope to have someone besides Romney, a brokered convention is a must.

I agree, except that both conservatives need to stay in and tag-team Santorum where/when they can, to assure the open convention.

If Santorum were to drop out, Willard has shown he can carpet-bomb Newt just as easily and has done so convincingly in the past. With either one out, Willard runs the table.

[CWCT] RCP Obama vs Gingrich - Obama +13.7% RCP Obama vs Santorum - Obama +8.7% So, since Santorum will be beaten by Obama, we should pick Gingrich?

[CW] Do you believe if Gingrich became the nominee, that those would be the numbers? And if they were, do you honestly believe Obama has such an edge?

Other candidates like Ronald Reagan have trailed by wide margins this early in a campaign and still won going away.

As long as the candidate is perceived as a conservative to Obama's Carter-like screwup liberal, and the Chicago Slime Machine can't change his image entirely (they'll try, no matter who it is), he should be able to handle Obama. Either Santorum or Gingrich could do it. Santorum would need some help with slime-fighting and squashing the ankle-biters (he'll want Gingrich on campaign with him, and Dubya proved that trying to ignore them does not work), but he can do it. Newt can do it.

The point now is that they keep Romney from running the table, that they keep the convention open.

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